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Prediction markets for Socialism 2025

Delayed Social Security payments to at least 100,000 people before December 31, 2025

Feb 1, 9:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.91%chance

12423197

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13029

7951

Will Twitter/x.com merge with or acquire Truth Social by the end of 2025?

Aug 12, 8:23 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

9.58%chance

517487

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2316

740

Will Elon Musk still own a social media company at the end of 2025?

Jan 2, 7:42 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

94.59%chance

476773

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3508

672

Will X (formerly Twitter) merge with DJT (Trump social media company) by year end 2025?

Nov 14, 8:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.2%chance

265448

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5497

182

Will AI generated content be ~50% or more of content creation on major social media platforms in 2025?

Jun 29, 5:44 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

15.94%chance

283594

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1769

738

Will the UN create a social media network by 2025?

Jul 1, 11:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.05%chance

152285

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3018

778

If polled in 2025, will the majority of Manifold users say this site has become their primary social media platform?

Oct 10, 6:07 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.93%chance

292222

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2391

700

Will there be a new social media platform surpassing Instagram before the end of 2025?

Jan 11, 1:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.78%chance

12598

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1377

897

Will any social media platform surpass Facebook in terms of global active users by the end of 2025?

Jan 23, 3:11 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

47%chance

14289

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1063

914

Will "Social Anxiety Isn’t About Being Liked" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 20, 11:13 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.16%chance

1250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

964

Will any social media app surpass Facebook, Youtube, Instagram, or TikTok in US monthly active users by EOY 2025

Feb 2, 8:24 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.79%chance

5145

OptionVotes

YES

NO

213

42

Will YouTube surpass Facebook to be the #1 social media platform in 2025?

Jan 11, 1:57 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18%chance

5125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

229

91

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