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Prediction markets for Software Update

Will X/Elon Musk achieve AGI by next year?

May 26, 12:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.7%chance

5821814

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5265

708

[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?

Jul 5, 12:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

20.12%chance

3612488

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19925

5019

Will most self-driving cars in 2029 use LIDAR?

Nov 2, 7:43 PMDec 2, 5:59 AM

23.19%chance

818849

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1462

798

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

Will there be more software developers employed in the United States in June 2026 than June 2025?

Jul 2, 8:15 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

40.06%chance

151677

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1223

818

Will Switch 2 LCD response times be improved in a software update?

Jun 27, 12:39 AMDec 31, 1:34 AM

18.09%chance

91414

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2128

470

Once level 5 self-driving cars are available to the public, will any pre-2024 Tesla model be capable of it?

Oct 13, 9:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.92%chance

19812

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

970

Will Bitcoin activate a new soft-fork before the end of 2025?

Aug 5, 11:13 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

15.02%chance

14644

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1064

971

Will the latest flagship reMarkable tablet and software remain highly customizable through 2025?

Feb 5, 11:27 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

81.95%chance

12303

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1123

950

Will Google provide seven years of software support for the Pixel 8 and Pixel 8 Pro?

Oct 7, 10:31 PMOct 13, 4:59 AM

77.96%chance

7236

OptionVotes

NO

YES

202

96

Will the Fairphone 3(+) have its support period extended to 2026?

Mar 17, 9:55 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

72.48%chance

368

OptionVotes

NO

YES

208

99

In 2025, will more Americans relocate due to the 2024 US election than will relocate in 2037 due to the Year 2038 Bug?

Nov 10, 12:04 AMFeb 17, 6:59 AM

52.53%chance

252

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1052

951

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