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Prediction markets for SOL

Will chess be solved by 2040?

Sep 29, 2:39 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

20%chance

2602040008

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2055

1670

Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Apr 3, 6:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

88.21%chance

317320623

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3032

293

Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?

Sep 8, 10:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

57.48%chance

541313756

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6226

3047

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

84.37%chance

185309487

OptionVotes

NO

YES

112408

28928

All Millennium Prize Problems solved before 2030?

Sep 8, 11:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

158109278

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2000

500

Will anyone solve my partner's depression before 2027? [M$1,000,000 bounty]

Sep 29, 5:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.73%chance

4814501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19554

5114

Will the leaked OpenAI "GPT 5.6 Sol" proof that nonsofic groups exist be verified as correct?

Aug 1, 6:35 AMAug 1, 6:31 AM

97.6%chance

1014031

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6376

157

Will the sky be clear in Sydney during the 2028 total solar eclipse?

Mar 8, 3:07 AMJul 22, 11:59 PM

58.13%chance

187433

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11782

8487

Will GPT 5.6 Sol be available at 700+ tok/s on Cerebras when released to the public?

Jun 26, 7:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.48%chance

112252

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1045

875

Will Sol Ring be banned in Commander before 2030?

Oct 24, 6:33 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.49%chance

5315

OptionVotes

YES

NO

415

24

Will there be a trend spike for the term "Sol Invictus" before 2035?

May 21, 9:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.2%chance

8243

OptionVotes

NO

YES

113

88

Will GPT-6 Sol out-benchmark Opus 5?

Sep 16, 3:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.21%chance

235

OptionVotes

NO

YES

135

82

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