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Prediction markets for SOL

Will chess be solved by 2040?

Sep 29, 2:39 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

25.04%chance

2622075021

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1787

1646

Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?

Sep 8, 10:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

27.53%chance

814735806

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8724

1200

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.41%chance

198384813

OptionVotes

NO

YES

155442

22908

Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Apr 3, 6:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

91%chance

323325344

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3440

246

All Millennium Prize Problems solved before May 2027?

Sep 8, 11:12 PMApr 30, 11:59 PM

8.05%chance

90210725

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3380

296

Will all Millennium prize problems be solved (or proved unsolvable) by 2040?

Mar 14, 9:28 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

72.97%chance

11781270

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1568

166

Will anyone solve my partner's depression before 2027? [M$1,000,000 bounty]

Sep 29, 5:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.93%chance

5117097

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22150

4515

Will the leaked OpenAI "GPT 5.6 Sol" proof that nonsofic groups exist be verified as correct?

Aug 1, 6:35 AMAug 1, 6:31 AM

97.6%chance

1014031

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6376

157

Will the sky be clear in Sydney during the 2028 total solar eclipse?

Mar 8, 3:07 AMJul 22, 11:59 PM

58.13%chance

187433

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11782

8487

Will Sol Ring be banned in Commander before 2030?

Oct 24, 6:33 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.49%chance

5315

OptionVotes

YES

NO

415

24

Will there be a trend spike for the term "Sol Invictus" before 2035?

May 21, 9:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.2%chance

8243

OptionVotes

NO

YES

113

88

Will GPT-6 Sol out-benchmark Opus 5?

Sep 16, 3:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.33%chance

261

OptionVotes

NO

YES

109

95

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