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Prediction markets for SOL

Will chess be solved by 2040?

Sep 29, 2:39 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

14.4%chance

2512022460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2782

1521

Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Apr 3, 6:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

68.68%chance

293279439

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1812

597

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.56%chance

154223270

OptionVotes

NO

YES

58291

46413

Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?

Oct 1, 3:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61.67%chance

293135465

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4881

38

Will all 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Apr 3, 8:20 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

35.33%chance

10841318

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1084

704

Will at least 80 percent of solar modules deployed in the US in 2026 be manufactured in the US?

Aug 11, 3:53 AMOct 1, 3:59 AM

12.57%chance

7025658

OptionVotes

YES

NO

26258

4181

Will anyone solve my partner's depression before 2027? [M$1,000,000 bounty]

Sep 29, 5:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.73%chance

4814501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19554

5114

Will the leaked OpenAI "GPT 5.6 Sol" proof that nonsofic groups exist be verified as correct?

Aug 1, 6:35 AMAug 1, 6:31 AM

97.77%chance

914025

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6625

151

Will the sky be clear in Sydney during the 2028 total solar eclipse?

Mar 8, 3:07 AMJul 22, 11:59 PM

58.13%chance

187433

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11782

8487

Will GPT 5.6 Sol be available at 700+ tok/s on Cerebras when released to the public?

Jun 26, 7:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.4%chance

81120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1067

978

Will Sol Ring be banned in Commander before 2030?

Oct 24, 6:33 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.49%chance

5315

OptionVotes

YES

NO

415

24

Will there be a trend spike for the term "Sol Invictus" before 2035?

May 21, 9:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.2%chance

8243

OptionVotes

NO

YES

113

88

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