Solar for All News

Arson

Murder

Genocide

2008 bank bailouts

two financial crimes

Sexual assault

Rape

Election fraud

financial crimes veiled as altruism

ballot harvesting

Financial crimes done specifically by someone in power

Racism against Asian people

Similar size financial crime committed by professional like lawyer or accountant who should know better but may have more at stake with risk of being struck off

Abusing/taking advantage of the trust of a person or people who care about you

Forcing someone to listen to Nickelback for 72 hours straight

financial crimes committed while doing a really offensive accent

offering drugs to a minor

stealing from the rich and giving to one specific deranged and violent alcoholic

Not doubling world GDP (more so for poor countries) by means of open borders

Sacrificing a child to R'hllor

Committing a moderately big financial crime (>$1 million)

Committing a really big financial crime (>$10 billion)

Hiring an illegal immigrant as your personal full-time sex slave

Lobbying congress to ban your competitors

buying a lot of drinks for a girl to get her very drunk so she'll hook up with you

Protecting sex-offending priests/pastors by moving them to different parishes

Making the same amount of money as the financial crime, but doing it by stealing catalytic converters off people's cars

Introducing leaded gasoline to the market (in 1924)

Rigging a piano to explode when a certain key is hit and leaving a piece of sheet music on it that requires that note to be played

Stealing a SpaceX Starship or Boeing Starliner

Space Piracy: commandeering ISS, enslaving the crew, plundering it for equipment and using it to attack other spacecraft

Taxing Asian immigrants to pay “slavery reparations’ to Ethiopian immigrants

Passing the Jones act to ban senator jones’ competitors

Setting Bigfoot on fire and throwing him out of a plane above a gathering of cryptozoologists.

marketing sugary processed foods to people despite knowing it will kill millions of them

Giving away free samples of meth at a school

Running for reelection as POTUS and refusing to step aside after showing signs of significant cognitive decline, resulting in an 80% probability that a convicted felon will be elected in your place.

Encouraging 10 people to commit a financial crime

Committing war crime.

Intensive pig farming

Giving away free samples of meth at a big tech company

Giving away free samples of meth at tech startups

Consolidating dictatorial power (e.g. suspending elections, controlling courts, etc.) while maintaining a popular mandate (i.e. significant majority of the country supports you and your actions in accurate, unpressured polls)

Firebombing a major city

Genocide committed by moving foodstuffs out of an area suffering severe famine.

Restricting the rights and privileges of the majority population to consolidate the political and economic power

Farming octopuses for food

Whatever is going on at Boeing

Setting a cryptozoologist on fire and throwing him out of a plane above a gathering of bigfoots.

Destroying a major cloud datacenter facility, with irrecoverable destruction of live user data but no direct deaths

Giving a (hypothetical) IQ-boosting treatment only to the most corrupt, vicious, and malicious people you can find

Doing physical violence to a random person as a collections agent

Threatening physical violence towards a random person's child as a collections agent

Forcing kindergartners to huff jenkem for an entire school day.

Threatening physical violence towards a random person's sibling as a collections agent

Conducting evidence-free civil asset forfeiture

Fighting a sea house with a financial crime and going to McDonald’s and giving a really bad yelp review and suing for a financial crime when you are beating up the sea horse

Octopi farming us for food

Embedding a predatory metaphysical outlook into AI to try to align it with right wing capitalist interests, leading to aeons of s risks being actualized throughout the light cone.

Unintentionally causing a bug that wastes 1 million hours of human time

Transporting 53 polar bears, 14 white tigers, and 2.3 million fire ants to the Antarctic and setting them loose in a penguin colony for a pay per view special dubbed "Polar Pandemonium: Ant-artic Special"

Spending the gains from your financial crime on breeding malaria mosquitoes, giving free samples of meth to poor teenagers, and electing bad politicians

Using a time machine to go back in time and brutally murder someone minutes before they would've died anyways

Aligning superhuman AI with capitalism; see https://manifold.markets/KarlK/how-friendly-is-capitalism-does-cap

Wearing a magic shirt that has a 5% chance of making each individual who sees it commit a financial crime as you traverse a major metropolitan city (New York, London, Tokyo, etc)

Falsifying evidence that an afterlife exists and profiting from the publication of this information

Enslaving Joe Biden and Jimmy Carter

Octopuses farming people who correct those who say ‘octopi’ for food

Enslaving octopuses to farm dolphins for food

Enslaving journalists to farm octopuses for food

Wrongfully accusing someone of that crime while knowing they’re innocent

Crashing the Titantic, leading to it sinking

Free ice cream, at taxpayer expense, but only for gingers

Committing a Financial Crime with Shoes On The Bed

Embezzling money from a charity opposed to farming octopuses

Creating Hell, making it possible that humans suffer infinitely for the actions of their finite life

Ressurecting the Rocky Mountain Locust (Melanoplus spretus)

creating misaligned AI that tiles the universe with octopus farms

Forcing an octopus to commit sepekku

forcing an octopus to commit a financial crime

Murdering 5,000 people by feeding them to all animals of the sea, including aquaman, mermaids, octopuses, and sea horses.

Octopus sex trafficking.

Filming a documentary where you get an octopus to trust you, luring it out into the open, and then don't help when it gets attacked by sharks.

Filming a documentary where you invite your girlfriend to an Alaskan camp surrounded by bears and then messing with those bears.

Introducing polar bears to Antarctica and then renaming them “bipolar bears.”

Appointing one random drug dealer with no legal experience to the Supreme Court of the United States

Appointing Clarence Thomas to the Supreme Court

Hanging on to a Supreme Court seat so Trump can appoint your replacement rather than retiring and keeping a liberal seat

Selling pies made out of orphan meat.

Condemning two hundred men to a slow death at sea because their coworker shot your favorite bird.

Enslaving a group of people for hundreds of years, terrorizing them for another hundred, then telling them you are tired of hearing them complain about it.

Selling orphans fed only pie meat

Feeding a child only nachos until they are 18 to create an adult who is 100% nachos

Slaughtering bears without a permit because the US Constitution guarantees the right to bear arms

Replacing all the samples at a sperm bank with your own.

Delivering angry skunks to the offices of rival investors to incapacitate them just before quarterly earnings reports.

Committing two financial crimes and donating the proceeds to the Make-a-Wish Foundation

Quackery - Traveling town to town selling snake oil remedies in a horse drawn carriage while wearing a top hat

Dueling - settling a dispute in the 21st century America with pistols at dawn

Go to an orphanage and have starving orphans battle over a hamburger with guns and swords while committing a financial crime

Twelve counts of murder in the first degree, fourteen counts of armed theft of Federation property, twenty two counts of piracy in high space, eighteen counts of fraud, thirty seven counts of rape... and one moving violation.

Causing people to go without essential items like water and fuel during emergencies by means of anti-price-gouging laws

Judging policies by their stated intent, not by their effect

Purposefully inciting a sea-bear attack

Enslaving a particularly dim-witted alien race so poor humans don't have to spend their lives asteroid mining.

Stealing a SpaceX Starship

Getting nuns pregnant by dressing them as altar boys.

Carjacking an old lady

Committing a financial crime and spending the proceeds on a plane ticket to Texas so you can go carjack Elon Musk, and then doing so

Forcing jockeys to run around a track for the entertainment of a race of hyperintelligent horses

Carjacking a hyperintelligent horse

Stealing the Declaration of Independence

Operating a child beauty pageant

Andrew Tate

Intentionally causing a bug that wastes 80,000 hours of human time

Putting motherfucking snakes on a motherfucking plane to kill one specific passenger

Having trains so bad and expensive that venture capital reinvents them

A regulatory environment that results in really bad trains

Trying to run a modern 21st century society on a hierarchical 18th century constitution

Artie Chokes Two for $1: Hiring a man named Artie to choke two people for a dollar to generate a headline falsely promising low-cost produce.

The first thing you do after sex is to resume the autopsy whilst telling yourself that one error in judgment doesn’t make you a bad vet.

Invent a system of taxation where the government won’t tell citizens what they owe, but instead will make them do a super complicated math problem and then send them to jail if they do it incorrectly.

Putting a pair of immortal adult children in an everlasting garden, then punishing them for the one thing you forbade, yet knew they must eventually do, given the nature of eternity.

Giving AI your DNA and as much data as possible with instructions to bootstrap itself to AGI by testing on your clones according to a mixture of Popperian and Bayesian formulas

Inventing a system of taxation that encourages bad land use and a housing crisis by taxing at 0% the unimproved value of land

Committing a violent crime that does not result in any injuries

Committing a violent crime that results in minor injuries

Committing a violent crime that results in serious injuries

Committing a violent crime that results in one person's death

Committing a violent crime that results in ten people's deaths

Workplace negligence (failure to follow documented proper procedure) that results in a serious injury to another person

Handing out counterfeit money to homeless beggars, in the hope that they'll get arrested for spending it.

Snatching household pets to fatten coyotes to feed to your pet tiger.

Stealing oxygen in an international moon base during an acute shortage, while deflecting suspicion toward the Belgian astronaut who nobody likes.

Committing a violent crime that results in minor injuries solely to yourself

Committing a violent crime that results in serious injuries solely to yourself

Committing a violent crime that results in your own death and no other injuries

Not committing a financial crime because you have commitment issues, but then sneaking around on the side and doing other financial crimes.

Sending a busload of orphans to a convent of cannibalistic nuns, who deal crack to middle school kids.

A law enforcement agency publicly declaring a specific individual to be “a person of interest,” thereby ruining their life even though the individual turns out to be innocent.

Being responsible for more than 50 percent of the cases of necrophilia in the funeral industry during any fiscal year.

As President, using a sharpie on an official weather forecast to extend the predicted area of danger, thereby needlessly frightening people who are not in danger.

Committing a financial crime while being the mayor of NYC

Attacking the lower classes: first with bombs, and rockets destroying their homes, and then when they run helpless into the streets, mowing them down with machine guns. And then of course releasing the vultures.

Cannibalism in the current British Navy.

Turning your girlfriend into a worm to win an argument

One hundred moving violations

Denying health insurance claims from impoverished family for flimsy reasons

Attempting or successfully couping a Democratically elected leader for personal gain

Touching minors/ being a pedophile

Deliberately targeting civilians and civilian objects during armed conflicts

Conducting widespread or systematic rape and sexual violence as a weapon of war

Invading the UK, making it a US territory, and naming it East Long Island.

Stealing Nicholas Cage

Gender "reparative therapy" of minors

Signing Deshaun Watson (who previously had to settle millions of dollars in sexual assault cases) to a 5 year, 230 Million fully guaranteed contract

Building a gambling app using money originating from a financial crime

Going back in time and smothering baby Hitler, but also, via butterfly effect, undoing everyone born later (assume single timeline, no multiverse)

Moving hundreds of thousands of children to a foreign country and forcibly "reeducating" them

The genocide in Gaza

Russia's genocide in Ukraine

Murdering someone that habitually commits financial crimes

Slavery

Grooming kids

Being the leader of a crime syndicate

9/11

Stranding two astronauts in space

Disturbing the space-time continuum

Sending dick pics to a student enrolled in your MOOC

Quackery: traveling town to town selling snake-oil remedies while carrying a duck

Voting for the NSDAP in the November 1932 German federal election

Forced mass uploading of biological consciousness to sidestep x risk

Attempting and failing to commit two financial crimes

Voting against a public inquiry on grooming gangs in the UK

A 20-year old having consensual sex with a 15-year-old

Knowing of two imminent financial crimes, being able to stop them with negligible effort and no risk to yourself, and not doing so

Making the same amount of money as the financial crime, but doing it by a series of petty shoplifts

De-extinction for your delectation: Bringing an extinct species back just to make it extinct again by serving it to gourmet diners as the highlight of an expensive meal.

Sexual harassment

Committing a financial crime that's 10 times as big, but donating the entire proceeds to a legitimate and worthy charity (assume the donations are not clawed back)

Flipping a coin and then either committing the same financial crime two times, or not at all

Killing the United Healthcare CEO

Purchasing 50,000 pounds of beef

Forcing a home owner to quarter soldiers, even in a time of war

Claiming to "Blind Shove" 200 big blinds pre-flop when secretly you looked and you had pocket Aces

Raising and selling 50,000 lbs of beef

Sheltering enemies of the state

Kicking a FG from the opponents 1 yard line on 4th down in a 0-0 game in the first quarter

Having a really good proof but not writing it anywhere because the margin is too small

Weaponizing autism

Having a podcast

Yelling racial slurs in public

Jaywalking

Pelting a moose with stale garlic knots out of season.

Cheating on spouse

Driving while intoxicated (alcohol and/or drugs)

Playing music (or other audio) on your phone speaker on public transport

Income taxes

Copyright infringement

Romeo and Juliet relationships

Replying all to an email when you should've just replied

Welfare fraud

Manufacturing and distribution of illegal drugs

Grave robbery

Saying the N-word every day as a white person

Discrimination based on race

Discrimination based on sexual orientation

Stealing from the rich and giving to the poor

Having sex in public while high on fentanyl

Racism against black people

Racism against white people

Sleep Token (Band)

not seeding your torrents

Drinking and driving at a NASCAR event

Building a time machine and then using it to point and laugh at history's greatest tragedies

Blasting a grossly inappropriate song during a candle light vigil for victims of a mass tragedy

Committing a financial crime, investing the proceeds for profit, which later leads to the insolvency administrator paying back the injured parties (including interest).

Working for one of the leading AI labs to advance the capabilities of a frontier model, with the goal of speeding up the progress towards human-level AGI.

Stealing from the poor and giving to the rich

Hiring only women because the NYT said you could pay them less for the same work

hiring three illegal immigrants to work on your sugarcane plantation

opening a factory in India that pays workers $4/day

twincest

drawing japanese tentacle porn featuring minors

Hiring the one from the more successful demographic out of two identical resumes, because of regression to the mean / biased college admissions

working as a prostitute

hiring a prostitute

hiring a prostitute, long term

Inventing Monero

Running a bank that invests demand deposits in junk bonds and tech stocks

Opening clinics for free abortions and IUDs, only in the ghetto

Giving away free samples of meth at a Dolly Parton concert

The most offensive Halloween costume ever

frisking two drug dealers and one innocent guy who was just loitering on a busy street corner saying "Hey do you need anything" to every stranger who walked past

Doing blackface

Keeping a dozen chimpanzees for entertainment purposes

Prosecuting a political opponent based on true charges that would normally not be pursued

the Asiana flight 214 prank

Giving free samples of meth to Joe Biden before the next debate

Cloning yourself

Threatening physical violence to a random person as a collections agent

making mifeprestone available OTC

making adderall available OTC

Killing yourself

Cloning someone else

Accidentally shooting and killing someone on a movie set

Asking GPT5 to maximize paperclips

Giving free baby formula to new mothers until their natural milk supply dries up

Kicking a donkey owned by a ninja in the butt.

Creating shit-options in an extremely serious and scientific market

Creating a prediction market website where markets are mostly about the platform itself

Staging the world's first ass ass assasin assasination by hiring a New Jersey hit man to whack a ninja hired to shoot an arrow at the backside of a donkey.

Betting yes on Biden being be the nominee at 7x leverage with play money, then defaulting

Calling octopuses "octopi"

Going excessively meta on an object-level topic

Illegally registering octopuses to vote

Registering illegals to vote for octopuses

Creating a targeted advertising campaign for free abortions and IUDs to people who are statistically likely to engage in financial crime

The school system failing to teach people that the real correct plural is octopodes

"James Bond-burgering" someone's sister

Wrongfully accusing someone of the same financial crime

Wrongfully accusing someone of that crime because you think they did it

Feeding an elderly man nothing but McDonald’s morning noon and night for the rest of his life.

Conducting gain-of-function research

Creating an unsolvable meme featuring James Bond and a hamburger so that people argue about it online for a decade

Publishing a step by step guide for how to commit a financial crime for free on the internet, but never promoting it or encouraging readers to follow through

Hosting and operating a website dedicated to the illegal sharing of copyrighted content

Adding an option to a market right before it closes

Writing a "goto" statement when programming

Advertising instant-runoff voting as "ranked choice" to prevent promotion of better ranked choice methods

Publishing a book, titled, "Cure Menopause with Ultraprocessed Foods"

Using crack cocaine to train the world's first chimp TSA agent.

Selling dope disguised as a nun.

Creating Heaven, allowing humans to prosper infinitely for the actions of their finite life

Inventing a new recipe that uses shrimp that causes 10 million new pounds of shrimp to be consumed annually

Using a conservative politician's LGBT+ identity as blackmail to make them support liberal policies

Voting for Benito Mussolini… in 2024

Arguing that grizzlies should be US citizens because they already have the right to bear arms.

Interrupting cows.

No longer loving your girlfriend after she turns into a worm

Putting infinite monkeys in front of infinite Bloomberg Terminals hoping that one of them randomly commits a financial crime

No longer loving your girlfriend after she turns you into a worm

One moving violation.

Purchasing one whole chicken

Committing a financial crime and donating the proceeds to the Make-a-Wish Foundation

Cattle rustling

Horse thievery

Tarring and feathering someone who commits a financial crime

Sumptuary law violations

Homeopathy

Price Gouging

Using napster.com to download Metallica's "I Disappear" demo track for free

Failing to commit a financial crime

Stealing a car

Stealing from Elon Musk

Committing a financial crime against X (company)

Stampeding cattle through the Vatican.

Carjacking Elon Musk

An old lady carjacking Elon Musk

Hacking into YouPorn to steal their IP to set up a clone dedicated to hard core user generated agriculture content: YouCorn

Gaslighting aliens into believing the human race is more technologically advanced than it is by beaming fake content about humanity to them

Carjacking a dumb octopus

A financial crime committed by an old lady

Forcing an octopus to carjack Elon Musk

stealing Elon Musk's car from solar orbit

Raping an AI avatar in VR

Introducing artificial intelligence to DMT space.

Planned Parrothood: offering birth control to talking birds

Plant Parenthood: when the seed goes in and the baby turns out to be a sunflower

Stealing the Declaration of Independence in order to find a vast revolutionary-war-era treasure trove

Using venture capital to reinvent trains, but worse

Bad bagels

Enslaving Slavey Steve, a man who has given enthusiastic consent to being enslaved for literally any purpose and then using his labor to clean up the environment

Still getting notifications for this market

Deciding to break up with your girlfriend, but thinking it will go easier if she thinks it’s her idea, so you suggest some degrading sexual activities but she surprises you by agreeing. Afterwards, you break up with her.

Laughing because a nun with a javelin through her head gets stuck trying to use a revolving door.

scaring the shit out of a magpie

Giving AI your DNA and as much data as possible with instructions to build a map of all quale and use it to create a computationally conscious race of dragons in a virtual universe

Committing sewerslide

Forcing a major sports league to change all its team names and mascots to either STDs or famous serial killers.

Workplace negligence (failure to follow documented proper procedure) that results in a minor injury to another person

Stealing the Declaration of Independence but only to use the kick ass treasure map on the back and then returning

Arby’s

Passing a law to make the United States an Oregon donor; in the event of the US’s demise, another country gets Oregon.

Creating a food made from grinding up every part of a pig (except the squeal), and then making a contest to see who can eat the most of it.

Committing a financial crime against the Make-a-Wish Foundation and donating the proceeds to the Against Malaria Foundation

Committing a financial crime against the Make-a-Wish Foundation, keeping 50% of the proceeds, and donating 50% of the proceeds to the Against Malaria Foundation

Forcing Elon Musk to commit a financial crime against an octopus and using the proceeds to pay a jacked jack-of-all-trades named Jack to jack off while carjacking a jackass that was driving factory-farmed ASIs to the slaughterhouse

Committing a Financial Crime Only When God Exists

Turning a worm into your girlfriend to win an argument

Causing 8 billion people to get dust specks in their eyes, irritating them just a little, for a fraction of a second, barely enough to make them notice before they blink and wipe it away

Causing 1 person to experience the pain of their entire body being stung by bullet ants, but lasting only a tenth of a second, and they have their memory of it wiped immediately afterwards

Founding Christianity

You, the reader

One hundred counts of littering

Purchasing 500 pounds of beef

Consensually cannibalizing someone who was losing that body part regardless

BTE Ban evading

Purchasing 5,000 pounds of beef

Producing a remake of the television series 'Manimal' starring Nicholas Cage.

Transing children

Redirecting fire department resources from fighting fires to fighting inequity

Taking a salary equal to the amount of the financial crime, while working in a government job of negative societal value?

Sexual intercourse with 1057 men in a 12 hour period

Other

Crazy Elon

subsidy elon

Phony Stark

“drug addict elon” or similar

Spacey Elon

Loser Elon

Whiny Elon

Entitled elon

Angry elon

Incel Elon

government subsidy guy

Leon Musk

Train wreck Elon

slippery eel / eel elon

Icky Elon

musk the moocher

Mr mars

muskrat elon / elon muskrat

Delusional elon

evil elon

rocket boy / rocket man (like kim jong un)

felon elon / felon musk / elon felon

elon husk

ozempic elon

elmo

Failed Elon

Space Cadet

Exploding Rocket Man

DOGE Boy

No nickname (ONLY RESOLVES YES IF HIS NICKNAME IS "NO NICKNAME")

Vriska Serket

Elongated Muskrat

Melon Husk

Alien Elon/ Elon the Alien

Mars Man

ev elon

Slimy Elon

Illegal Elon

Emo Elon

Little Elon

Ketamine Elon

Mediocre Musk

Fat Elon

Klon

Space Boy

The Man Who Lost His Mind

E Elon

ET Elon

Elon of the Crimson Blade

Medicare Elon

Melon

Xanax

Ketamelon

mental musk

marsboy musk

Elon Melon

Murky Musk

Ketamine Karen

resolves no

jetbrain

elonious munk

Lying Elon

Traitor Elon / Elon the Traitor / Tesla Traitor (anything with Traitor)

Musky Elon

N/A

Oh no!

Elon The Con

Jumping/Jumpy Elon/Musk

Low IQ Elon

Erratic Elon

Buddy

Friend Elon

Great Elon

Fail-on

Eblon

Extraterrestrial

solar

Kooky elon

The Best President

Moron Musk

squealin elon

African Elon / afrikaan elon

autistic Elon

immigrant elon

Evil Musk

Elon musksnake

That guy

Eloon

(This option will not resolve yes)

Elon the idiot

Schemin' Elon

Elon the Pawn

Off the Rails Elon

Mr Musk

Yilong Ma

Mr Elon

Mad Musk

Radical Left Lunatic Elon (or something like that)

Trump will be the POTUS

FED rates will be below 5% on 1st January 2025

MrBeast Channel Subscribers will be between 300M to 350M on 1st Jan 2025

At Least 1 earthquake with magnitude 8.0 or higher

1 or more Jan 6 rioters get pardoned

Israel attacks Iranian nuclear facilities

Elon removed as doge head

Pope dies

Yoon Suk Yeol impeachment upheld by supreme court

Its revealed that Elon Musk had more children then 13 already known

Famous global brand goes through a rebranding

GPT 5 releases

Russia retains de facto control over Crimea

Avatar: Fire and Ash released

King Charles will be alive for the whole year of 2025

2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US

Hollow Knight Silk song released

This whole market gets more than 300 traders

LEMMiNO releases a new video

Any incumbent world leader diagnosed with cancer after 28th January 2025

Biden gets hospitalised

FED rates will be below 4% on 31st December 2025

Yoon Suk Yeol convicted of insurrection

In one of the monthly polls, >= 80.0% of Manifold users who provide an opinion agree that weak AGI has been achieved

MKBHD marries his girlfriend Nikki Hair

At least one world leader (prime minister, president, or monarch) gets assassinated while in office

Alan's Conservative Countdown to AGI >= 97%

Early general elections in Pakistan

Ali Khamenei assassisnated

Attempt to assassinate trump in 2025

Department of Education ended by executive order (even if temporarily)

T1 three-peat as League of Legends world champions

Mike Johnson is not Speaker

Bitcoin reaches 150k sometimes during 2025

Ali Khamenei dies a natural death

In one of the monthly polls, >= 33.3% of Manifold users who provide an opinion agree that non-human intelligence has influenced Earth

Russia-Ukraine war will end in 2025

There will be less MAU at manifold in December 2025 then there would be in January 2025

In one of the monthly polls, a plurality of Manifold users declares the achievement of weak superintelligence

Californian independence gains enough signatures

Attempted assassination on Zelensky in which he gets hurt but survives

Marco Rubio fired or "resigns" upon rumors of his impending termination

Dodgers win World Series

Los Ratones win against T1, or lose 2-3 (either case should resolve YES, if they don't play against each other this should be NO)

Elections in Bangladesh come to pass (currently planned for late 2025 to early 2026)

At least one Premier of a Canadian province proposes joining the USA

A country leaves NATO

Phillies win the World Series

Harry and Meghan divorce

Saudi Arabia - Israel normalize relations

2025 hotter then 2024

Putin dies

Biden dies

Taylor Swift will be "single" anytime during 2025

After the release of GPT-5, every monthly Manifold poll results in a plurality of respondents agreeing that weak AGI has been achieved

Congress repeals any tariff

Apple will release first foldable smartphone during 2025

Chuck Schumer resigns

United States government acknowledges the existence of life anywhere other than on or close to Earth

Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 80%

Elon Musk diagnosed with COVID-19

Bethesda releases a new game in the Elder Scroll series

China annexes Taiwan

Filibuster abolished

Zelensky Assassinated

Article 5 of NATO invoked

OpenAI o6 or any o6 variant released

Ukraine internal coup attempt

FrontierMath solved (>= 80%) and model is available to any person in the United States willing to pay for it

Kate and William divorce

Sam Altman gets fired again

At least one Premier of a Canadian province takes a concrete step, such as holding a referendum, to join the USA

Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 90%

Putin assassinated

NATO at war with Russia

Trump assassinated

Any newspaper reports a US Default on any debt

US-China war

A country leaves the EU

A nuclear bomb explodes

2025 is the 15th "Year of Three Popes"

US debt ceiling will be scrapped during 2025

United States government acknowledges the existence of non-human intelligence on or close to Earth

One of the Millenium prize problems falls to a model

The winds of winter by GRR Martin will release

USA claims intelligences of extra-terrestrial origin have credibly visited or sent technology to a location within our solar system in an official government statement

Los Ratones go to LoL Worlds

LK99 replicates at last

Greenland Joins USA

End of the world by celery

Ukraine joins NATO

Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 80% on or before June 30

A US state secedes from the union

51st US State

Peter Turkson elected Pope

GTA 6 releases

Federal Reserve cuts rates to zero

Harris will be the POTUS

Bitcoin will be > 100k on 1st January 2025

MrBeast Channel Subscribers will be below 300M on 1st Jan 2025

MrBeast Channel Subscribers will be above 350M on 1st Jan 2025

Jimmy Carter will be alive on 1st January 2025

Jimmy Carter will be alive on 31st December 2025

Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 80% on or before March 31

Francis is always Pope

New pope takes name "Francis"

First papal conclave >= 10 ballots

Mainstream Media

Letitia James

January 6th Committee

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

LQBTQ / Trans People

Migrants

The Bidens (Joe, Ashley, Jill, and/or Hunter Biden)

Elon Musk

Anthony Fauci

Gen. Mark Milley

Universities

Paper straws

Blinken

Maine

Due Process

Alejandro Mayorkas

Jack Smith

Zohran Mamdani

Leakers

National Institutes of Health

Bruce Springsteen

The New York Times (NYT)

Panama

Alexander Vindman

Solar Energy

Stephen Colbert

Joe Biden

The Atlantic

Greenland

Barack Obama

Beyoncé

Ann Selzer

the National Archives

Rosie O'Donnell

Michael Cohen

Fluoride

Nancy Pelosi

Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)

Denmark

Jeffrey Goldberg (Atlantic columnist)

John Kelly

Public Libraries

The Metropolitan Museum of Art

Miles Taylor

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Bill Barr

Any non-Tesla electric car manufacturer

Seth Myers

Taylor Swift

Vaccine mandates

Emmanuel Macron

Jimmy Kimmel

Christopher Steele

Wikipedia

Ken Klippenstein

TIME magazine

Susan Collins (R-ME)

Any Manifold User

Mike Pence

Jeff Bezos

Mariann Edgar Budde

Jen Psaki (former White House Press Secretary and current MSNBC host)

SSRIs

WIRED Magazine

Liz Cheney

E. Jean Carroll

Tucker Carlson

Brad Raffensperger

BlueSky

American sign language signers or interpreters

JD Vance

The population of penguins and seabirds on the Heard and McDonald Islands

Pete Hegseth

Black Nationals

Alec Baldwin

Chappell Roan

Bill Burr

YES

trump is impeached by either house OR senate

Bitcoin reaches 200K usd or more

a second cybertruck explodes (intended or unintended) that makes the news

Tom Scott's 'this video' reaches 80M views on Youtube

this market reaches 100 traders

undersea cables reported cut around taiwan

EOD Boxing Day - Dec 26

Ark Survival Evolved 2 releases

English Wikipedia reaches 70M PAGES or more

Saw XI Releases in USA

alan greenspan passes away

coup in an african country

noam chomsky passes away

chinese spy balloon incident reported on news

openai loses another board member, or sam altman no longer ceo

another trump assassination attempt

this market reaches 5k individual TRADES

discord IPO happens

2025 nobel peace prize winner announced

Hades 3 announced (game)

EOD Thanksgiving - Nov 28

Last game of the MLB World Series ends

israel opens an embassy in syria, OR announces it will

the "500 poll" reaches its target goal of 500 responses

Taylor Swift announce engagement or marriage

zootopia 2 releases

Spacex launches 150th rocket of the year

EOD Halloween - Oct 31

First game of the MLB World Series starts

manifold raises more money

EOD Lief Erikson Day - Oct 9

MLB rookie of the year announced

Tom Scott's 'this video' reaches 75M views on Youtube

Bitcoin reaches 150K usd or more

stripe ipo happens

Legally Blonde 3 release date announced

GenoSamuel releases Chris Chan History #86

Twitter releases a Peer to Peer payment system to free or premium users

Prong.Studio releases a 3rd product (not an accessory or part for an existing one)

Cy Young award winner announced

Third dune movie officially announced

trump removes a cabinet member

Bitcoin reaches 125K usd or more

windows 12 announcement is made

Skibidi Toilet ends their original series

Imu face reveal in One Piece manga

the third Atlantic hurricane of the season

someone reaches 100k traders on creator leaderboard

onepieceexplained reaches 15k subs on youtube

trump starts mass deportations

Spacex launches 100th rocket in one year

Skate 4 releases

the second Atlantic hurricane of the season

Sailing releases as a skill in Old School Runescape

Chat GPT 5 releases to the general userbase

the first Atlantic hurricane of the season

Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse release date announced

Earthquake magnitude 8.0 or higher somewhere in the world

Earthquake magnitude 7.8 or higher somewhere in the world

Killing Floor 3 releases on Steam

grok4 release date

the start of Amazon Prime Day(s) 2025

EOD Fourth of July - Jul 4

the third Pacific hurricane of the season

28 years Later releases in USA

the second Pacific hurricane of the season

chime IPO happens

Spacex launches 75th rocket of the year

First Apple Event of the year

the first Pacific hurricane of the season

manifest 2025 ends

Manifest 2025 starts

Mr Beast hits 400M Youtube Subscribers

Bitcoin reaches 110K usd or more

English Wikipedia reaches 7M ARTICLES or more

claude 4 sonnet releases (or later version)

EOD Cinco De Mayo - May 5

Spacex launches 50th rocket of the year

Last day of the NFL draft

Llama 4 released to the general userbase

Joseph Anderson releases long awaited Witcher 3 video

south korean president removed from power

the first Solar eclipse of the year

First Nintendo direct of the year

trump declares war or orders military actions on another country

Ukraine and Russia announce any ceasefire

EOD Ides of March - Mar 15

the first Lunar eclipse of the year

EOD Fat Tuesday/Mardi Gras

trump enacts new or changed tariffs on mexico

new iphone releases in the USA (official date)

Spacex launches 25th rocket of the year

new iphone release date announced (in the USA)

grok 3 release date

nintendo switch successor announced officially

trump enacts new or changed tariffs on china

CGP Grey releases a new video (not a reupload)

doomsday clock announcement

USA President issues 10th executive order

USA President issues 1st executive order

Israel and Hamas announce another temporary ceasefire OR permanent ceasefire OR conflict otherwise ends

YES

Bitcoin + AI

AI + Medicine

Bitcoin + XR

AI + Robotics

Fintech + AI

AI + Internet

AI + Physics

AI + VR

XR + AI

BCI + Internet

Haptics + BCI

Decentralized IP Verification and Education (Blockchain Credentials)

BCI + Remote sensing

Predictive Markets and Constitutional Alignment of AI

AI+Blockchain

BCI + Dating Apps

Vertical farming + Solar

Solar

Natural Gas

Nuclear

Petroleum

Wind

Coal

Geothermal

Hydroelectric

Biomass

Fusion

1687 K (melting point of silicon)

5800 K (solar photosphere i.e. Sun's visible surface, slightly hotter than Earth's core)

28,000 K (lightning strike)

15,000,000 K (15 million K, solar core)

300,000,000 K (300 million K, thermonuclear bomb)

100,000,000,000 K (100 billion K, supernova)

A day will be 24 hours, 39 minutes and 35.244 SI seconds long

A day will be 24h×60m×60s using a "mars second" equal to 1.0275 SI seconds.

Other

A day will be 24h×60m×60s where a "second" is a unit of angle rather than time, equal to 1/86400 of a revolution w.r.t the sun (i.e. the equivalent of Earth's UT1, this is called "Coordinated Mars Time")

A day will be 24h×60m×60s using SI seconds (and will drift with respect to mean solar time by ~40 minutes a day)

Robotic Technologies Enabling the Exploration of Lunar Pits

Direct Multipixel Imaging and Spectroscopy of an Exoplanet with a Solar Gravitational Lens Mission

Diffractive Solar Sailing

Cube-Sat Space Flight Test of a Neutrino Detector

Mini Bee Prototype to Demonstrate the Apis Mission Architecture and Optical Mining Technology