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Prediction markets for Solar System

will human ever live outside the solar system before the 22nd century?

Nov 7, 12:59 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

32.8%chance

2820756

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6324

5475

Does extraterrestrial life at least as complex as a fly exist anywhere in the solar system?

Dec 9, 2:09 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

5.47%chance

514032

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2069

857

Is there a Black Hole in our Solar System?

May 11, 7:56 PMDec 20, 5:59 AM

12.19%chance

443753

OptionVotes

NO

YES

971

945

Where will humans first colonize in our solar system?

Apr 23, 5:36 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

333206

OptionProbability

Mars

Moon

A Langrage Point

Other

Venus

Titan

Europa

Yes. It might even be a ghost town (or colony) by then.

74

25

1

0

0

0

0

0

Will a new planet be discovered in our solar system by 2035?

Jan 10, 11:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.59%chance

302337

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1007

758

Will an object in the Solar System other than Earth be circumnavigated by 2075?

Apr 17, 2:06 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.61%chance

221081

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1290

864

By the end of 2040, will there be strong evidence of life (of non-terrestrial origin) in our solar system?

Feb 5, 1:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33%chance

19854

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

633

Will we discover a black hole in our solar system before 2030?

Oct 27, 12:20 PMJan 5, 10:59 PM

5.07%chance

22780

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

964

Will alien technological artefacts be discovered in the Solar System through 2050?

Sep 9, 7:28 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

10.96%chance

17504

OptionVotes

YES

NO

220

101

Is there extraterrestrial life within 10 light years from the solar system?

Feb 11, 3:35 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

20.71%chance

10359

OptionVotes

YES

NO

237

92

Will evidence supporting the existence of a primordial black hole in the outer solar system be published by July 2026?

May 1, 2:37 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

6.26%chance

8326

OptionVotes

YES

NO

387

26

Will humans visit the Outer Solar System before Halley's Comet returns?

Jan 28, 5:54 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

62.47%chance

7225

OptionVotes

NO

YES

202

85

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