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Prediction markets for Solar System

will human ever live outside the solar system before the 22nd century?

Nov 7, 12:59 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

33.92%chance

2820856

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6124

5575

Does extraterrestrial life at least as complex as a fly exist anywhere in the solar system?

Dec 9, 2:09 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

5.47%chance

514032

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2069

857

Is there a Black Hole in our Solar System?

May 11, 7:56 PMDec 20, 5:59 AM

12.19%chance

443753

OptionVotes

NO

YES

971

945

Will a new planet be discovered in our solar system by 2035?

Jan 10, 11:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.64%chance

302388

OptionVotes

NO

YES

998

809

If abiogenetically distinct alien life is discovered in the solar system before 2070, where will it be first discovered?

Dec 30, 8:52 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

181166

OptionProbability

Europa

Mars

Enceladus

Titan

Venus

Ganymede

Other

Ceres

Another location in the Jovian system

Another location in the Saturnian system

Uranus or one of its moons

Triton

Another location in the Neptunian system

Another dwarf planet or one of its moons

Pluto/Charon system

30

20

14

10

7

4

4

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

Will a man made object sent into space after market creation leave the solar system before 2030?

Jun 17, 11:27 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

3.35%chance

171158

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1522

943

Will an object in the Solar System other than Earth be circumnavigated by 2075?

Apr 17, 2:06 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

71.32%chance

231131

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1155

914

Will life be found in the deep biosphere of any other solar system bodies before 2035?

Oct 12, 3:16 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5.59%chance

61051

OptionVotes

YES

NO

411

24

By the end of 2040, will there be strong evidence of life (of non-terrestrial origin) in our solar system?

Feb 5, 1:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33%chance

19854

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

633

Will we discover a black hole in our solar system before 2030?

Oct 27, 12:20 PMJan 5, 10:59 PM

5.07%chance

22780

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

964

Will alien technological artefacts be discovered in the Solar System through 2050?

Sep 9, 7:28 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

10.96%chance

17504

OptionVotes

YES

NO

220

101

Is there extraterrestrial life within 10 light years from the solar system?

Feb 11, 3:35 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

20.71%chance

10359

OptionVotes

YES

NO

237

92

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