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Prediction markets for Solidity

Is the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]

Aug 2, 10:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

23.66%chance

48290312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7387

4939

Will I deem Donut Lab's solid state battery claims in their video to have been false one year from now?

Jan 6, 7:00 AMJan 6, 9:59 PM

93.5%chance

8822915

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9736

4602

Will the solid-state (Donut) Verge motorcycle be delivered under a non-disclosure agreement?

Mar 21, 12:20 AMJan 2, 1:10 AM

12.42%chance

65384

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2656

377

If a solid neurological study of trans women gets performed, what will the results most resemble?

Feb 26, 9:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

604059

OptionProbability

Neither

Feminine essence

Blanchardian

Just autogynephilia

Feminine autogynephilia

51

18

15

13

4

When will the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 be approved by the FDA?

Aug 3, 7:22 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

474041

OptionProbability

Not by the end of 2030

2027

2028

2025

2029

2026

2030

2024

2023

64

18

5

4

3

2

2

1

0

Will Democrats win any of these ‘solid Republican’ house races?

Sep 7, 4:41 AMNov 4, 11:59 PM

44.25%chance

141244

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1316

618

Will I be able to summon a robotaxi in NYC before I can buy an EV with a all-solid-state battery?

Jan 25, 8:08 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

77.63%chance

231068

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1052

972

Will any OEM be producing LLZO solid-state battery packs at commercial scale (≥1 GWh/year) by December 31, 2029?

Apr 7, 2:56 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

77%chance

4654

OptionVotes

NO

YES

190

30

Will Tesla significantly invest in new battery chemistry before a solid state battery EV is delivered in the US?

Jan 30, 9:24 PMFeb 7, 4:59 AM

35.29%chance

9195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

192

121

By the end of 2026, will it be possible to purchase a motorcycle with a solid state battery for <$50k

Jan 6, 12:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.44%chance

7187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1096

913

What will be true about solid-state batteries in 2030?

Mar 7, 12:15 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

8148

OptionProbability

They will be used in >10% of VTOLs

They will be the EV standard

They will cost less than 1000$ for a 200km EV

More than 1Twh will be manufactured annually

52

45

30

30

Before 2030, Toyota will be selling cars with solid-state batteries with a >=1000km range chargeable in under 15 minutes

Jul 5, 6:42 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20%chance

8140

OptionVotes

YES

NO

211

147

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