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Prediction markets for Solidly

Is the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]

Aug 2, 10:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

23.75%chance

48190222

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7361

4947

Will I deem Donut Lab's solid state battery claims in their video to have been false one year from now?

Jan 6, 7:00 AMJan 6, 9:59 PM

90.09%chance

8118416

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6531

4881

When will the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 be approved by the FDA?

Aug 3, 7:22 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

453989

OptionProbability

Not by the end of 2030

2027

2028

2025

2029

2026

2030

2024

2023

63

20

5

4

3

2

2

1

0

Will the solid-state (Donut) Verge motorcycle be delivered under a non-disclosure agreement?

Mar 21, 12:20 AMAug 1, 12:10 AM

47.39%chance

43782

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1054

949

Will I be able to summon a robotaxi in NYC before I can buy an EV with a all-solid-state battery?

Jan 25, 8:08 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

81.25%chance

221018

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1246

922

Will Google release a Pixel phone that uses a solid-state battery by the end of 2026?

Jun 24, 10:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.24%chance

7817

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

146

Will Tesla release a car using solid-state battery technology by the end of 2027?

Jun 24, 10:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

52.52%chance

5205

OptionVotes

NO

YES

211

190

Will Tesla release a car using solid-state battery technology by the end of 2026?

Jun 24, 10:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.39%chance

6190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

314

129

Will Google release a Pixel phone that uses a solid-state battery by the end of 2027?

Jun 24, 10:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.93%chance

3140

OptionVotes

YES

NO

488

251

Will a Metal Gear Solid movie release by the end of 2027?

Jun 25, 10:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23%chance

6107

OptionVotes

YES

NO

183

55

By the end of 2026, will it be possible to purchase a motorcycle with a solid state battery for <$50k

Jan 6, 12:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

49.22%chance

5107

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1016

985

Before 2030, Toyota will be selling cars with solid-state batteries with a >=1000km range chargeable in under 15 minutes

Jul 5, 6:42 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18.04%chance

7102

OptionVotes

YES

NO

232

142

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