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Prediction markets for Solidly

Is the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]

Aug 2, 10:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

24%chance

48090112

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7294

4968

When will the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 be approved by the FDA?

Aug 3, 7:22 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

453989

OptionProbability

Not by the end of 2030

2027

2028

2025

2029

2026

2030

2024

2023

63

20

5

4

3

2

2

1

0

Will I be able to summon a robotaxi in NYC before I can buy an EV with a all-solid-state battery?

Jan 25, 8:08 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

80.42%chance

22968

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1196

934

Will Google release a Pixel phone that uses a solid-state battery by the end of 2026?

Jun 24, 10:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.24%chance

7817

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

146

Will Apple release an iPhone that uses a solid-state battery by the end of 2026?

Jun 24, 10:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.05%chance

5470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

815

170

Will Tesla release a car using solid-state battery technology by the end of 2027?

Jun 24, 10:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

52.52%chance

5205

OptionVotes

NO

YES

211

190

Will Tesla significantly invest in new battery chemistry before a solid state battery EV is delivered in the US?

Jan 30, 9:24 PMFeb 7, 4:59 AM

31.16%chance

8185

OptionVotes

YES

NO

212

111

What will be true about solid-state batteries in 2030?

Mar 7, 12:15 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

8148

OptionProbability

They will be used in >10% of VTOLs

They will be the EV standard

They will cost less than 1000$ for a 200km EV

More than 1Twh will be manufactured annually

52

45

30

30

Will Google release a Pixel phone that uses a solid-state battery by the end of 2027?

Jun 24, 10:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.86%chance

3130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

478

256

Will a Metal Gear Solid movie release by the end of 2027?

Jun 25, 10:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23%chance

6107

OptionVotes

YES

NO

183

55

By the end of 2026, will it be possible to purchase a motorcycle with a solid state battery for <$50k

Jan 6, 12:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

49.17%chance

4106

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1017

984

Will Apple release an iPhone that uses a solid-state battery by the end of 2027?

Jun 24, 10:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48.69%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

387

367

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