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Prediction markets for Solv

Will chess be solved by 2040?

Sep 29, 2:39 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

9.51%chance

2422006774

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3988

1361

Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Apr 3, 6:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

48.26%chance

252212038

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1266

981

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.82%chance

99161555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111105

17339

Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?

Oct 1, 3:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28%chance

226102486

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4797

153

Will Navier-Stokes be solved with the help of Google or Alphabet scientists by the end of 2027?

Sep 24, 1:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.65%chance

12065765

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13627

10590

Will an unsolved millenium prize problem be solved by AI by the end of 2028

Aug 6, 7:13 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

27%chance

11734938

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

885

Will all 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Apr 3, 8:20 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

25.98%chance

9331314

OptionVotes

YES

NO

975

966

Will superposition in transformers be mostly solved by 2026?

Mar 16, 7:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.27%chance

9118824

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4733

4397

Will anyone solve my partner's depression before 2027? [M$1,000,000 bounty]

Sep 29, 5:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.5%chance

4312501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17554

5697

Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2035?

Oct 11, 5:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.89%chance

10210773

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3820

2023

Will all Millennium prize problems be solved (or proved unsolvable) by 2030?

Mar 14, 9:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

3.95%chance

549062

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2160

902

In what year will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem?

Sep 30, 7:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

513749

OptionProbability

2030-2049

2025-2029

2050-2074

2075-2099

Other

55

20

19

5

1

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