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Prediction markets for Solv

Will chess be solved by 2040?

Sep 29, 2:39 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

14.99%chance

2161715494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2682

1537

Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Apr 3, 6:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

46%chance

232195052

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1215

1031

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.25%chance

88143181

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106395

18257

Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?

Oct 1, 3:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27%chance

20292581

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4792

161

Will Manifold solve my puzzle?

Nov 3, 6:25 PMDec 31, 5:55 PM

50%chance

12985786

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will Navier-Stokes be solved with the help of Google or Alphabet scientists by the end of 2027?

Sep 24, 1:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.66%chance

11353232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11422

7857

Will all 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Apr 3, 8:20 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

23%chance

9129675

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1099

926

Will an unsolved millenium prize problem be solved by AI by the end of 2028

Aug 6, 7:13 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

23.77%chance

10327543

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1007

976

Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2035?

Oct 11, 5:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

52.26%chance

10110558

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3802

2044

Will all Millennium prize problems be solved (or proved unsolvable) by 2030?

Mar 14, 9:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

7.02%chance

506953

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YES

NO

1243

952

Will anyone solve my partner's depression before 2027? [M$1,000,000 bounty]

Sep 29, 5:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.74%chance

244822

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13408

7458

In what year will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem?

Sep 30, 7:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

503444

OptionProbability

2030-2049

2025-2029

2050-2074

2075-2099

Other

47

36

13

3

1

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