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Prediction markets for Solv

Will chess be solved by 2040?

Sep 29, 2:39 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

25.04%chance

2622075021

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1787

1646

Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?

Sep 8, 10:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

24.25%chance

814734994

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9131

1058

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.41%chance

198384813

OptionVotes

NO

YES

155442

22908

Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Apr 3, 6:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

91%chance

323325344

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3440

246

Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?

Oct 1, 3:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

97%chance

377226100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5064

2

All Millennium Prize Problems solved before May 2027?

Sep 8, 11:12 PMApr 30, 11:59 PM

8.05%chance

90210725

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3380

296

Will all Millennium prize problems be solved (or proved unsolvable) by 2040?

Mar 14, 9:28 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

72.97%chance

11781270

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1568

166

Will an unsolved millenium prize problem be solved by AI by the end of 2028

Aug 6, 7:13 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

98.75%chance

17961738

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3759

15

Will any remaining Millenium Prize problem be solved entirely or mostly by humans?

Oct 19, 8:49 PMOct 27, 6:59 AM

12.26%chance

16152068

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2693

110

Will at least one of the remaining Millenium Problems be solved before 2030?

Feb 28, 3:09 PMDec 31, 9:01 PM

95.12%chance

17237969

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4223

142

Will superposition in transformers be mostly solved by 2026?

Mar 16, 7:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.61%chance

9419095

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4668

4512

Will anyone solve my partner's depression before 2027? [M$1,000,000 bounty]

Sep 29, 5:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.93%chance

5117097

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22150

4515

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