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Prediction markets for Solv

Will chess be solved by 2040?

Sep 29, 2:39 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

21.92%chance

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1879

1714

Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Apr 3, 6:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

50%chance

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1300

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Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.32%chance

86134186

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NO

109153

17619

Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?

Oct 1, 3:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31%chance

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NO

YES

4803

133

Will any remaining Millenium Prize problem be solved entirely or mostly by humans?

Oct 19, 8:49 PMOct 27, 6:59 AM

57.27%chance

12234102

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1613

634

Will all Millennium prize problems be solved (or proved unsolvable) by 2040?

Mar 14, 9:28 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

27.66%chance

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1009

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Will all 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Apr 3, 8:20 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

20%chance

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1253

884

Will an unsolved millenium prize problem be solved by AI by the end of 2028

Aug 6, 7:13 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

32.37%chance

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1083

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Will superposition in transformers be mostly solved by 2026?

Mar 16, 7:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73%chance

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3626

971

AI solves the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) by 2028

Apr 5, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.15%chance

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1399

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Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2035?

Oct 11, 5:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.21%chance

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3855

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Will some Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI before 2032?

May 12, 3:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.56%chance

12869

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166

60

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