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Prediction markets for Solv

Will chess be solved by 2040?

Sep 29, 2:39 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

14.4%chance

2512022460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2782

1521

Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Apr 3, 6:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

68.68%chance

293279439

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1812

597

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.56%chance

154223270

OptionVotes

NO

YES

58291

46413

Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?

Oct 1, 3:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61.67%chance

293135465

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4881

38

Will all Millennium prize problems be solved (or proved unsolvable) by 2040?

Mar 14, 9:28 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

47.81%chance

9461992

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1233

385

Will an unsolved millenium prize problem be solved by AI by the end of 2028

Aug 6, 7:13 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

53.17%chance

14844336

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1336

379

Will all 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Apr 3, 8:20 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

35.33%chance

10841318

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1084

704

Will at least one of the remaining Millenium Problems be solved before 2030?

Feb 28, 3:09 PMDec 31, 9:01 PM

69%chance

16429779

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1786

527

Will superposition in transformers be mostly solved by 2026?

Mar 16, 7:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.19%chance

9218832

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4726

4405

Will anyone solve my partner's depression before 2027? [M$1,000,000 bounty]

Sep 29, 5:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.73%chance

4814501

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19554

5114

Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2035?

Oct 11, 5:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

73.7%chance

10814221

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YES

3839

2789

Will some Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028?

Jun 1, 1:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.33%chance

316885

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

84

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