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Sonnet News

Which of these Language Models will beat me at chess?

Jan 1, 11:47 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

178522118

OptionProbability

Any model announced before 2034

Any model announced before 2031

Any model announced before 2032

Any model announced before 2033

Any model announced before 2030

Any open-weights model announced before 2030

Any model announced by OpenAI before 2030

Any model announced by Google before 2030

Any model announced by a Chinese lab before 2030

Any model announced by Anthropic before 2030

Any model announced before 2029

Any model announced before 2028

Any model announced by Meta before 2030

Any model announced by xAI before 2030

Any model announced by SSI before 2030

Any model announced before 2027

GPT-6.5

Gemini 4

Grok 5

Claude 3.5 Opus

Fable/Mythos 5.5

OpenAI o4

Claude Opus 4.9

GPT-5

Grok 3

OpenAI o3

DeepSeek-V4

Any model announced before 2026

Llama 4

GPT-4.5

Gemini 2.5

Gemini 3

Any Claude 4 model

Any Claude 5 model

grok-4

GPT-6

Sonnet 4.5

Kimi K2

GPT-5.1

Gemini 3.5

Claude 4.5 Opus

Claude 5 Opus

GPT-5.2

Any model announced before July 1, 2026

Opus 4.6

GPT-5.4 (x-high fast)

GPT-5.5

Muse Spark (from Meta)

Any Claude Mythos model (first version released)

Opus 4.7

Opus 4.8

GPT-5.6

GLM-5.2

OpenAI Astra (first model released)

87

84

84

84

81

80

80

79

77

76

74

73

67

65

41

29

27

16

14

13

13

10

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Claude Sonnet 4.6 METR 50% time horizon

Dec 18, 12:39 AMDec 1, 12:37 AM

5314128

OptionProbability

9h - 10h

10h - 11h

8.5h - 9h

8h - 8.5h

Other

7.5h - 8h

12h - 13h

11h - 12h

3.5h - 4h

4.5h - 5h

5h - 5.5h

5.5h - 6h

6h - 6.5h

6.5h - 7h

7h - 7.5h

4h - 4.5h

2h - 2.5h

2.5h - 3h

3h - 3.5h

<2h

20

16

14

6

6

5

5

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

1

1

1

0

Claude Sonnet 5 METR 50% time horizon

Feb 2, 1:04 PMNov 4, 1:00 AM

4311573

OptionProbability

Other

7h - 8h

8h - 9h

9h - 10h

4h - 5h

5h - 6h

6h - 7h

<3h

3h - 4h

10h - 11h

11h - 12h

12h - 13h

13h - 14h

82

3

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

0

0

0

0

Which new words will Anthropic use to name Claude models? (Haiku, Sonnet, Opus, Fable, Mythos, ...)

Jun 14, 2:36 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

395669

OptionProbability

Claude Saga

Claude Epic

Claude … the name of a real (animal species, or settlement, or geological feature)

Claude … Quest, or Goliath

Claude Ballad

Claude Odyssey

Canon

Claude Parable

Claude Anthology

Claude Novel

Claude Legend

Claude Chronicle

Claude Requiem

Claude Allegory

Shannon

Claude Lore

Claude Tale

Claude Myth

19

17

16

16

16

15

14

13

13

12

11

11

11

10

7

4

3

2

Will Claude Sonnet 5 exceed 85% on SWE-bench verified?

Feb 3, 4:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

94.48%chance

191775

OptionVotes

NO

YES

414

24

Will a new Claude Sonnet model be released in September 2026?

Sep 20, 3:58 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

21.72%chance

13909

OptionVotes

YES

NO

190

53

Will "Where does Sonnet 4.5's desire to "not get to..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 28, 3:01 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10.71%chance

2300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1300

958

Will Claude Sonnet 5 achieve a SOTA score on SciPredict?

Feb 3, 12:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.27%chance

6254

OptionVotes

YES

NO

267

37

Will "Claude Sonnet 3.7 (often) knows when it’s in ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 29, 12:09 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.6%chance

365

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1029

995

Will GPT-6 Terra out-benchmark Sonnet 5?

Sep 16, 3:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.94%chance

360

OptionVotes

NO

YES

117

90

Will "Sonnet 4.5's eval gaming seriously undermines..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 1, 10:31 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.33%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

992

Was Opus 4.6 meant to be called Sonnet 5?

Feb 6, 5:48 PM

1110

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