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Prediction markets for Sonnet

Claude Sonnet 4.6 METR 50% time horizon

Dec 18, 12:39 AMMay 31, 11:37 PM

4913443

OptionProbability

9h - 10h

8.5h - 9h

8h - 8.5h

10h - 11h

12h - 13h

7.5h - 8h

7h - 7.5h

11h - 12h

Other

5h - 5.5h

5.5h - 6h

6h - 6.5h

6.5h - 7h

4.5h - 5h

3h - 3.5h

3.5h - 4h

4h - 4.5h

<2h

2h - 2.5h

2.5h - 3h

22

15

12

12

6

5

4

4

4

3

3

3

3

2

1

1

1

0

0

0

Claude Sonnet 5 METR 50% time horizon

Feb 2, 1:04 PMAug 4, 12:00 AM

3710616

OptionProbability

Other

9h - 10h

3h - 4h

4h - 5h

5h - 6h

6h - 7h

7h - 8h

8h - 9h

<3h

13h - 14h

10h - 11h

11h - 12h

12h - 13h

81

5

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

0

0

0

Which month will Anthropic release Sonnet 5?

Feb 5, 11:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2410548

OptionProbability

July 2026 or later

June 2026

May 2026

Never released

February 2026

March 2026

April 2026

Other

60

20

10

6

1

1

1

1

Was sonnet 5 meant to be released instead of Opus 4.6?

Feb 6, 6:19 PMJun 30, 5:15 PM

3.25%chance

181109

OptionVotes

YES

NO

546

18

Will Claude Sonnet 5 exceed 85% on SWE-bench verified?

Feb 3, 4:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61%chance

18897

OptionVotes

NO

YES

125

80

Will Claude Sonnet 4.8 be released before May 24?

May 2, 10:54 AMMay 23, 11:59 PM

50%chance

20646

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will Anthropic release Claude Sonnet 5 and Claude Opus 5 on the same day?

Feb 8, 7:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.53%chance

24604

OptionVotes

YES

NO

151

66

Why is Claude 3.5 Sonnet such a good model for its size?

Jul 11, 8:22 AMJul 19, 6:59 AM

8547

OptionProbability

Pretraining data composition

Doesn't use any scale.ai training data

Offline policy learning RLHf

Task vectors like golden gate Claude

88

63

49

37

Will "Where does Sonnet 4.5's desire to "not get to..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 28, 3:01 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10.71%chance

2300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1300

958

Will Claude Sonnet 5 achieve a SOTA score on SciPredict?

Feb 3, 12:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.28%chance

5201

OptionVotes

YES

NO

155

64

Will "Claude Sonnet 3.7 (often) knows when it’s in ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 29, 12:09 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.6%chance

365

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1029

995

Will "Sonnet 4.5's eval gaming seriously undermines..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 1, 10:31 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.33%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

992

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