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Prediction markets for SOON

Is LeCun right that open-source AI will soon become 'unbeatable'? (EOY 2025)

Oct 15, 2:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.82%chance

394172143

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5304

1680

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

56%chance

20846475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2518

1141

Conditional on losing the upcoming general election, how soon will the UK Conservative party be back in power?

Jun 16, 7:07 PMJan 30, 8:59 PM

305456

OptionProbability

1 Jan 2032 or later

Between 1 Jan 2028 and 31 Dec 2029

Between 1 Jan 2030 and 31 Dec 2031

Between 1 Jan 2026 and 31 Dec 2027

Before Dec 31 2025

39

31

17

6

1

How soon will Private investment in LLMs be lower than it was in 2024Q1? (from 01.01 to 31.3 of 2024)

Jun 22, 6:44 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

6825

OptionProbability

2025Q1

Other

2025Q2

2025Q3

2025Q4

2026Q1

2026Q2

2026Q3

2026Q4

2027Q1

2027Q2

51

6

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

Will Naughty Dog release The Last of Us Part III any time soon?

Jan 17, 10:41 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5592

OptionProbability

By 2026 or later

By 2025

Yes, by the end of Q2 2024

Yes, until the end of 2024

66

28

3

3

Will we reach the longevity escape velocity soon enough to save my cats?

Nov 2, 12:02 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

18.33%chance

9373

OptionVotes

NO

YES

156

95

Will "games of no chance" have a Lorxus-supplied facecast soon?

Dec 4, 2:16 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

3.46%chance

4216

OptionVotes

YES

NO

264

9

Could AI research see a shift in focus soon?

Dec 19, 4:37 AMJul 5, 6:59 AM

80.96%chance

10193

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1093

963

How soon after question creation will @Mira be banned from Eliezerfic?

Jun 28, 4:54 AMJul 5, 6:59 AM

2171

OptionProbability

Over 4 years/never/she leaves before that

3 months

6 months

1 month

1 year

2 years

3 years

87

3

3

2

2

2

2

How soon until factory workers at Amazon,Tesla, Apple, Pride Mobility and such are replaced with humanoid robots?

Mar 3, 10:57 PMJan 1, 8:59 AM

5131

OptionProbability

5-7

2-5

1-2

46

43

13

Will "You should consider applying to PhDs (soon!)" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Dec 1, 7:26 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9%chance

254

OptionVotes

YES

NO

154

93

Will "Too Soon" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 17, 7:46 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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