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Prediction markets for SOPH

Will we see highly sophisticated AI-based aged account sockpuppet swarms before the end of 2025?

Dec 18, 6:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

89.01%chance

7230005

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3204

720

On Dec 31, 2025, will a widely available AI model be able to write a sophisticated 2000 line program?

Dec 28, 2:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71.5%chance

233794

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1584

631

Will the largest AI training run in 2025 utilize Sophia, Second-order Clipped Stochastic Optimization?

May 25, 5:58 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

17.35%chance

211786

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1391

870

Will Quora questions be auto-answered by a more sophisticated bot (at level of GPT3.5 or higher) by EOY 2025?

Apr 21, 6:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71.1%chance

9304

OptionVotes

NO

YES

259

216

Are there infinitely many Sophie Germain primes?

Nov 6, 1:27 PMNov 13, 10:59 PM

87%chance

9232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

168

59

Will Sophie Turner and Joe Jonas get back together?

Sep 8, 1:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10210

OptionProbability

No

Yes

88

12

Will Ansh and Sophia have a happy and prosperous marriage?

Nov 3, 3:18 AMNov 9, 4:59 PM

80%chance

1100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

200

50

Will someone create a romance novel for Sophie in Sophie's world by EOY2040

Nov 20, 1:44 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

80%chance

1100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

200

50

Will AI/BCIs/neurotech be sophisticated enough to reverse other people's bad opinions of each other by 2033?

Sep 21, 8:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19%chance

599

OptionVotes

YES

NO

208

95

sophomore year prop bets [add answers]

Jul 29, 11:01 PMAug 31, 10:58 PM

130

OptionProbability

make USACO camp

make USAMO

make USAPHO

get a 5 on ap econ micro

get a 5 on ap econ macro

get a 5 on ap calculus bc

get a 5 on ap lang

get a 5 on ap phys 2

get a 5 on apcsa

get a 5 on apush

get an A in honors chem

get an A in mandarin

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

Will Alden dig a burrow next to Sophie the grivek?

Jul 19, 3:47 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

45.25%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

55

45

Will someone write a new Sophie's world book featuring @arithmoquine, repligate, @adic_9, JDP, or parafactual by 2028

Jun 11, 5:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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