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Prediction markets for source

When will an open-sourced AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?

May 26, 11:35 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

70117046

OptionProbability

2026-2027

2027-2028

2025-2026

2028-2029

2029-2030

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2044-2045

2045-2046

53

30

8

3

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math Olympiad 2026]

Jul 19, 2:27 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

41.28%chance

6226753

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12280

8032

Will closed source software go extinct within 5 years (2029)?

Aug 14, 3:29 PMAug 15, 5:59 AM

6.09%chance

5410047

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3928

255

What percentage of US energy will be produced by each source in 2050?

Jun 27, 8:03 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

346916

OptionProbability

Solar

Natural Gas

Nuclear

Petroleum

Wind

Other

Coal

Hydroelectric

Biomass

Geothermal

Fusion

32

16

14

11

5

5

4

3

3

3

3

What will be the world's top energy source in 2030?

Jan 12, 9:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

446268

OptionProbability

Oil

Natural gas

Solar

Other

Coal

Nuclear (fission)

Fusion

Wind

Hydropower

Traditional biomass

Geothermal

Tidal and wave

Modern biofuels

37

33

14

10

3

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will a Pulsar Timing Array experiment detect gravitational waves from a resolvable point source before the year 2030?

Sep 5, 5:44 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

171558

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1139

1020

If passed, will SB 1047 cover any Open Source model before 2029, not including those of Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic, etc?

Aug 29, 2:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.35%chance

61165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1098

911

Grok uses Telegram channels as one of content sources by mid-2026?

May 31, 10:10 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

49.88%chance

81152

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1007

1003

Will the SotA open-source AI model in July 2026 use Test-Time Training?

Jul 28, 4:00 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

34.62%chance

11985

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1374

728

Will there be a disaster caused by open source developers doing unsafe things with AI by 2028?

Apr 7, 5:48 PMApr 7, 10:59 PM

62.13%chance

23895

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1041

902

If not passed, will there be any open source model that would have been covered by SB 1047, by January 1st 2027?

Sep 9, 8:57 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

64.56%chance

7860

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1350

741

Open-source tools useful addition to Dante's-Labs reports?

Jun 29, 7:06 PMJun 1, 6:40 PM

53.64%chance

7198

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1076

930

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