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Prediction markets for source

When will an open-sourced AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?

May 26, 11:35 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

74123174

OptionProbability

2026-2027

2027-2028

2025-2026

2028-2029

2029-2030

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2044-2045

2045-2046

81

10

2

2

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math Olympiad 2026]

Jul 19, 2:27 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

41.29%chance

9634995

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12277

8034

Will closed source software go extinct within 5 years (2029)?

Aug 14, 3:29 PMAug 15, 5:59 AM

6.09%chance

5410047

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3928

255

What percentage of US energy will be produced by each source in 2050?

Jun 27, 8:03 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

346916

OptionProbability

Solar

Natural Gas

Nuclear

Petroleum

Wind

Other

Coal

Hydroelectric

Biomass

Geothermal

Fusion

32

16

14

11

5

5

4

3

3

3

3

What will be the world's top energy source in 2030?

Jan 12, 9:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

506411

OptionProbability

Oil

Natural gas

Solar

Other

Coal

Nuclear (fission)

Fusion

Wind

Hydropower

Traditional biomass

Geothermal

Tidal and wave

Modern biofuels

35

31

22

7

3

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will a Pulsar Timing Array experiment detect gravitational waves from a resolvable point source before the year 2030?

Sep 5, 5:44 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

52.27%chance

181608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

1070

Will 20% or more of Japan's energy be from nuclear sources before 2030?

Dec 22, 2:02 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

75.86%chance

231521

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

973

If passed, will SB 1047 cover any Open Source model before 2029, not including those of Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic, etc?

Aug 29, 2:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.35%chance

61165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1098

911

Zuck changes his mind and is strongly against open distribution of advanced or open source AI/LLMs by mid 2028

Aug 22, 4:35 AMJul 1, 3:59 AM

33.96%chance

191133

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1395

717

Will there be a disaster caused by open source developers doing unsafe things with AI by 2028?

Apr 7, 5:48 PMApr 7, 10:59 PM

62.13%chance

23895

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1041

902

If not passed, will there be any open source model that would have been covered by SB 1047, by January 1st 2027?

Sep 9, 8:57 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

64.56%chance

7860

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1350

741

AI: Will someone open-source a $1B model by 2030?

Dec 23, 4:49 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

43.97%chance

12627

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1109

826

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