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Prediction markets for source

When will an open-sourced AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?

May 26, 11:35 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

69113858

OptionProbability

2026-2027

2027-2028

2025-2026

2028-2029

2029-2030

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2044-2045

2045-2046

70

19

3

3

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math Olympiad 2026]

Jul 19, 2:27 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

43.54%chance

4520709

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11745

8426

Will Wikipedia accept prediction markets as a source before 2030?

Dec 29, 3:05 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

30%chance

7317671

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1124

462

Will closed source software go extinct within 5 years (2029)?

Aug 14, 3:29 PMAug 15, 5:59 AM

6.09%chance

5410047

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3928

255

What percentage of US energy will be produced by each source in 2050?

Jun 27, 8:03 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

346916

OptionProbability

Solar

Natural Gas

Nuclear

Petroleum

Wind

Other

Coal

Hydroelectric

Biomass

Geothermal

Fusion

32

16

14

11

5

5

4

3

3

3

3

What will be the world's top energy source in 2030?

Jan 12, 9:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

446268

OptionProbability

Oil

Natural gas

Solar

Other

Coal

Nuclear (fission)

Fusion

Wind

Hydropower

Traditional biomass

Geothermal

Tidal and wave

Modern biofuels

37

33

14

10

3

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will a Pulsar Timing Array experiment detect gravitational waves from a resolvable point source before the year 2030?

Sep 5, 5:44 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

51.27%chance

161507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1112

1048

If passed, will SB 1047 cover any Open Source model before 2029, not including those of Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic, etc?

Aug 29, 2:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.35%chance

61165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1098

911

Grok uses Telegram channels as one of content sources by mid-2026?

May 31, 10:10 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

49.88%chance

81152

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1007

1003

Will the SotA open-source AI model in July 2026 use Test-Time Training?

Jul 28, 4:00 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

34.62%chance

11985

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1374

728

Will there be a disaster caused by open source developers doing unsafe things with AI by 2028?

Apr 7, 5:48 PMApr 7, 10:59 PM

62.13%chance

23895

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1041

902

Open-source tools useful addition to Dante's-Labs reports?

Jun 29, 7:06 PMJun 1, 6:40 PM

53.18%chance

6188

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1066

938

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