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Prediction markets for source

When will an open-sourced AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?

May 26, 11:35 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

87146143

OptionProbability

2027-2028

2026-2027

2025-2026

2028-2029

2029-2030

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2044-2045

2045-2046

60

26

4

4

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will closed source software go extinct within 5 years (2029)?

Aug 14, 3:29 PMAug 15, 5:59 AM

6.09%chance

5410047

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3928

255

What percentage of US energy will be produced by each source in 2050?

Jun 27, 8:03 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

346916

OptionProbability

Solar

Natural Gas

Nuclear

Petroleum

Wind

Other

Coal

Hydroelectric

Biomass

Geothermal

Fusion

32

16

14

11

5

5

4

3

3

3

3

What will be the world's top energy source in 2030?

Jan 12, 9:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

506411

OptionProbability

Oil

Natural gas

Solar

Other

Coal

Nuclear (fission)

Fusion

Wind

Hydropower

Traditional biomass

Geothermal

Tidal and wave

Modern biofuels

35

31

22

7

3

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will OpenAI release another open source LLM before end of 2026?

Aug 5, 5:42 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

44.36%chance

304889

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1120

893

2 of the top 5 AI's are open source at eoy 2027? (ECI)

Jul 24, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.9%chance

91750

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2623

2468

Will a Pulsar Timing Array experiment detect gravitational waves from a resolvable point source before the year 2030?

Sep 5, 5:44 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

52.27%chance

181608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

1070

Will open-source AI remain at least one year behind proprietary AI? (ACX, AI 2027 #4)

Apr 8, 7:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.29%chance

201549

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1077

928

Will closed-source models be more or less aligned one year from now?

Aug 6, 12:41 AMAug 6, 12:39 AM

52.96%chance

6980

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1061

942

Will there be a disaster caused by open source developers doing unsafe things with AI by 2028?

Apr 7, 5:48 PMApr 7, 10:59 PM

62.13%chance

23895

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1041

902

Will a Mythos-tier-at-cybersecurity open-source model be released before end of 2027?

Jul 24, 3:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75.09%chance

13885

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1795

255

AI: Will someone open-source a $1B model by 2030?

Dec 23, 4:49 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

57.65%chance

13877

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1359

584

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