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Prediction markets for Spa

Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?

Apr 25, 3:04 AMDec 31, 2:00 PM

6%chance

125234855

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4062

893

Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2028?

Feb 7, 6:16 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

3%chance

175158298

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6908

285

Will any spaceship exceed 10% of the speed of light relative to its planet of origin before 9999?

Jul 13, 5:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

82.1%chance

88132314

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2739

903

Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?

Mar 18, 12:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.65%chance

15127192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4827

377

[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.96%chance

4916709

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10346

3955

Will there be a larger amount of mass intentionally sent “downhill” to Earth from space than “uphill” in 2050?

Jan 17, 12:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

38.1%chance

2613586

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12755

7836

By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason?

Nov 9, 5:02 AMJan 2, 5:01 AM

166460

OptionProbability

Jan 1, 2029

Jan 1, 2028

Jan 1, 2027

65

54

19

Will OMIE Spain 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed €65/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

40.01%chance

53433

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12045

8363

Will we have a terrestrial space elevator by 2150?

Sep 4, 7:26 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

29.32%chance

323000

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1022

976

SOAI#7: A movie or short film produced with significant use of AI wins major audience praise and sparks backlash

Oct 9, 11:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.83%chance

292683

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1328

753

Spain's population end of 2026? [in MM]

Jan 11, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.34%chance

112228

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5155

4936

Will the OMIE Spain annual average wholesale electricity price for calendar year 2027 exceed 60 EUR per MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

50.35%chance

31051

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11051

8806

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