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Prediction markets for Spa

Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2028?

Feb 7, 6:16 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

2%chance

174157604

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8762

239

Will any spaceship exceed 10% of the speed of light relative to its planet of origin before 9999?

Jul 13, 5:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

82.14%chance

86132293

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2744

902

Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?

Mar 18, 12:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.2%chance

14726461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5066

344

Will SpaceX IPO before the end of 2026?

May 2, 6:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78.4%chance

5625334

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14467

7761

Biden ranked below Carter in next C-SPAN Presidential Historians Survey

Dec 3, 5:59 PMJul 1, 11:00 PM

44.61%chance

6417559

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1116

899

Will there be a larger amount of mass intentionally sent “downhill” to Earth from space than “uphill” in 2050?

Jan 17, 12:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

36.49%chance

2513090

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13201

7571

[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.72%chance

255089

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5187

5054

By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason?

Nov 9, 5:02 AMJan 2, 5:01 AM

163510

OptionProbability

Jan 1, 2029

Jan 1, 2028

Jan 1, 2027

65

57

39

Will we have a terrestrial space elevator by 2150?

Sep 4, 7:26 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

29.32%chance

323000

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1022

976

SOAI#7: A movie or short film produced with significant use of AI wins major audience praise and sparks backlash

Oct 9, 11:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.45%chance

282673

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1346

743

Spain's population end of 2026? [in MM]

Jan 11, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.34%chance

112228

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5155

4936

Will there be another spaceflight-related death by 2030?

Feb 11, 7:17 PMFeb 18, 11:59 PM

51.25%chance

331312

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1075

906

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