OptionProbability
Arson
Murder
Genocide
2008 bank bailouts
two financial crimes
Sexual assault
Rape
Election fraud
financial crimes veiled as altruism
ballot harvesting
Financial crimes done specifically by someone in power
Racism against Asian people
Similar size financial crime committed by professional like lawyer or accountant who should know better but may have more at stake with risk of being struck off
Abusing/taking advantage of the trust of a person or people who care about you
Forcing someone to listen to Nickelback for 72 hours straight
financial crimes committed while doing a really offensive accent
offering drugs to a minor
stealing from the rich and giving to one specific deranged and violent alcoholic
Not doubling world GDP (more so for poor countries) by means of open borders
Sacrificing a child to R'hllor
Committing a moderately big financial crime (>$1 million)
Committing a really big financial crime (>$10 billion)
Hiring an illegal immigrant as your personal full-time sex slave
Lobbying congress to ban your competitors
buying a lot of drinks for a girl to get her very drunk so she'll hook up with you
Protecting sex-offending priests/pastors by moving them to different parishes
Making the same amount of money as the financial crime, but doing it by stealing catalytic converters off people's cars
Introducing leaded gasoline to the market (in 1924)
Rigging a piano to explode when a certain key is hit and leaving a piece of sheet music on it that requires that note to be played
Stealing a SpaceX Starship or Boeing Starliner
Space Piracy: commandeering ISS, enslaving the crew, plundering it for equipment and using it to attack other spacecraft
Taxing Asian immigrants to pay “slavery reparations’ to Ethiopian immigrants
Passing the Jones act to ban senator jones’ competitors
Setting Bigfoot on fire and throwing him out of a plane above a gathering of cryptozoologists.
marketing sugary processed foods to people despite knowing it will kill millions of them
Giving away free samples of meth at a school
Running for reelection as POTUS and refusing to step aside after showing signs of significant cognitive decline, resulting in an 80% probability that a convicted felon will be elected in your place.
Encouraging 10 people to commit a financial crime
Committing war crime.
Intensive pig farming
Giving away free samples of meth at a big tech company
Giving away free samples of meth at tech startups
Consolidating dictatorial power (e.g. suspending elections, controlling courts, etc.) while maintaining a popular mandate (i.e. significant majority of the country supports you and your actions in accurate, unpressured polls)
Firebombing a major city
Genocide committed by moving foodstuffs out of an area suffering severe famine.
Restricting the rights and privileges of the majority population to consolidate the political and economic power
Farming octopuses for food
Whatever is going on at Boeing
Setting a cryptozoologist on fire and throwing him out of a plane above a gathering of bigfoots.
Destroying a major cloud datacenter facility, with irrecoverable destruction of live user data but no direct deaths
Giving a (hypothetical) IQ-boosting treatment only to the most corrupt, vicious, and malicious people you can find
Doing physical violence to a random person as a collections agent
Threatening physical violence towards a random person's child as a collections agent
Forcing kindergartners to huff jenkem for an entire school day.
Threatening physical violence towards a random person's sibling as a collections agent
Conducting evidence-free civil asset forfeiture
Fighting a sea house with a financial crime and going to McDonald’s and giving a really bad yelp review and suing for a financial crime when you are beating up the sea horse
Octopi farming us for food
Embedding a predatory metaphysical outlook into AI to try to align it with right wing capitalist interests, leading to aeons of s risks being actualized throughout the light cone.
Unintentionally causing a bug that wastes 1 million hours of human time
Transporting 53 polar bears, 14 white tigers, and 2.3 million fire ants to the Antarctic and setting them loose in a penguin colony for a pay per view special dubbed "Polar Pandemonium: Ant-artic Special"
Spending the gains from your financial crime on breeding malaria mosquitoes, giving free samples of meth to poor teenagers, and electing bad politicians
Using a time machine to go back in time and brutally murder someone minutes before they would've died anyways
Aligning superhuman AI with capitalism; see https://manifold.markets/KarlK/how-friendly-is-capitalism-does-cap
Wearing a magic shirt that has a 5% chance of making each individual who sees it commit a financial crime as you traverse a major metropolitan city (New York, London, Tokyo, etc)
Falsifying evidence that an afterlife exists and profiting from the publication of this information
Enslaving Joe Biden and Jimmy Carter
Octopuses farming people who correct those who say ‘octopi’ for food
Enslaving octopuses to farm dolphins for food
Enslaving journalists to farm octopuses for food
Wrongfully accusing someone of that crime while knowing they’re innocent
Crashing the Titantic, leading to it sinking
Free ice cream, at taxpayer expense, but only for gingers
Committing a Financial Crime with Shoes On The Bed
Embezzling money from a charity opposed to farming octopuses
Creating Hell, making it possible that humans suffer infinitely for the actions of their finite life
Ressurecting the Rocky Mountain Locust (Melanoplus spretus)
creating misaligned AI that tiles the universe with octopus farms
Forcing an octopus to commit sepekku
forcing an octopus to commit a financial crime
Murdering 5,000 people by feeding them to all animals of the sea, including aquaman, mermaids, octopuses, and sea horses.
Octopus sex trafficking.
Filming a documentary where you get an octopus to trust you, luring it out into the open, and then don't help when it gets attacked by sharks.
Filming a documentary where you invite your girlfriend to an Alaskan camp surrounded by bears and then messing with those bears.
Introducing polar bears to Antarctica and then renaming them “bipolar bears.”
Appointing one random drug dealer with no legal experience to the Supreme Court of the United States
Appointing Clarence Thomas to the Supreme Court
Hanging on to a Supreme Court seat so Trump can appoint your replacement rather than retiring and keeping a liberal seat
Selling pies made out of orphan meat.
Condemning two hundred men to a slow death at sea because their coworker shot your favorite bird.
Enslaving a group of people for hundreds of years, terrorizing them for another hundred, then telling them you are tired of hearing them complain about it.
Selling orphans fed only pie meat
Feeding a child only nachos until they are 18 to create an adult who is 100% nachos
Slaughtering bears without a permit because the US Constitution guarantees the right to bear arms
Replacing all the samples at a sperm bank with your own.
Delivering angry skunks to the offices of rival investors to incapacitate them just before quarterly earnings reports.
Committing two financial crimes and donating the proceeds to the Make-a-Wish Foundation
Quackery - Traveling town to town selling snake oil remedies in a horse drawn carriage while wearing a top hat
Dueling - settling a dispute in the 21st century America with pistols at dawn
Go to an orphanage and have starving orphans battle over a hamburger with guns and swords while committing a financial crime
Twelve counts of murder in the first degree, fourteen counts of armed theft of Federation property, twenty two counts of piracy in high space, eighteen counts of fraud, thirty seven counts of rape... and one moving violation.
Causing people to go without essential items like water and fuel during emergencies by means of anti-price-gouging laws
Judging policies by their stated intent, not by their effect
Purposefully inciting a sea-bear attack
Enslaving a particularly dim-witted alien race so poor humans don't have to spend their lives asteroid mining.
Stealing a SpaceX Starship
Getting nuns pregnant by dressing them as altar boys.
Carjacking an old lady
Committing a financial crime and spending the proceeds on a plane ticket to Texas so you can go carjack Elon Musk, and then doing so
Forcing jockeys to run around a track for the entertainment of a race of hyperintelligent horses
Carjacking a hyperintelligent horse
Stealing the Declaration of Independence
Operating a child beauty pageant
Andrew Tate
Intentionally causing a bug that wastes 80,000 hours of human time
Putting motherfucking snakes on a motherfucking plane to kill one specific passenger
Having trains so bad and expensive that venture capital reinvents them
A regulatory environment that results in really bad trains
Trying to run a modern 21st century society on a hierarchical 18th century constitution
Artie Chokes Two for $1: Hiring a man named Artie to choke two people for a dollar to generate a headline falsely promising low-cost produce.
The first thing you do after sex is to resume the autopsy whilst telling yourself that one error in judgment doesn’t make you a bad vet.
Invent a system of taxation where the government won’t tell citizens what they owe, but instead will make them do a super complicated math problem and then send them to jail if they do it incorrectly.
Putting a pair of immortal adult children in an everlasting garden, then punishing them for the one thing you forbade, yet knew they must eventually do, given the nature of eternity.
Giving AI your DNA and as much data as possible with instructions to bootstrap itself to AGI by testing on your clones according to a mixture of Popperian and Bayesian formulas
Inventing a system of taxation that encourages bad land use and a housing crisis by taxing at 0% the unimproved value of land
Committing a violent crime that does not result in any injuries
Committing a violent crime that results in minor injuries
Committing a violent crime that results in serious injuries
Committing a violent crime that results in one person's death
Committing a violent crime that results in ten people's deaths
Workplace negligence (failure to follow documented proper procedure) that results in a serious injury to another person
Handing out counterfeit money to homeless beggars, in the hope that they'll get arrested for spending it.
Snatching household pets to fatten coyotes to feed to your pet tiger.
Stealing oxygen in an international moon base during an acute shortage, while deflecting suspicion toward the Belgian astronaut who nobody likes.
Committing a violent crime that results in minor injuries solely to yourself
Committing a violent crime that results in serious injuries solely to yourself
Committing a violent crime that results in your own death and no other injuries
Not committing a financial crime because you have commitment issues, but then sneaking around on the side and doing other financial crimes.
Sending a busload of orphans to a convent of cannibalistic nuns, who deal crack to middle school kids.
A law enforcement agency publicly declaring a specific individual to be “a person of interest,” thereby ruining their life even though the individual turns out to be innocent.
Being responsible for more than 50 percent of the cases of necrophilia in the funeral industry during any fiscal year.
As President, using a sharpie on an official weather forecast to extend the predicted area of danger, thereby needlessly frightening people who are not in danger.
Committing a financial crime while being the mayor of NYC
Attacking the lower classes: first with bombs, and rockets destroying their homes, and then when they run helpless into the streets, mowing them down with machine guns. And then of course releasing the vultures.
Cannibalism in the current British Navy.
Turning your girlfriend into a worm to win an argument
One hundred moving violations
Denying health insurance claims from impoverished family for flimsy reasons
Attempting or successfully couping a Democratically elected leader for personal gain
Touching minors/ being a pedophile
Deliberately targeting civilians and civilian objects during armed conflicts
Conducting widespread or systematic rape and sexual violence as a weapon of war
Invading the UK, making it a US territory, and naming it East Long Island.
Stealing Nicholas Cage
Gender "reparative therapy" of minors
Signing Deshaun Watson (who previously had to settle millions of dollars in sexual assault cases) to a 5 year, 230 Million fully guaranteed contract
Building a gambling app using money originating from a financial crime
Going back in time and smothering baby Hitler, but also, via butterfly effect, undoing everyone born later (assume single timeline, no multiverse)
Moving hundreds of thousands of children to a foreign country and forcibly "reeducating" them
The genocide in Gaza
Russia's genocide in Ukraine
Murdering someone that habitually commits financial crimes
Slavery
Grooming kids
Being the leader of a crime syndicate
9/11
Stranding two astronauts in space
Disturbing the space-time continuum
Sending dick pics to a student enrolled in your MOOC
Quackery: traveling town to town selling snake-oil remedies while carrying a duck
Voting for the NSDAP in the November 1932 German federal election
Forced mass uploading of biological consciousness to sidestep x risk
Attempting and failing to commit two financial crimes
Voting against a public inquiry on grooming gangs in the UK
A 20-year old having consensual sex with a 15-year-old
Knowing of two imminent financial crimes, being able to stop them with negligible effort and no risk to yourself, and not doing so
Making the same amount of money as the financial crime, but doing it by a series of petty shoplifts
De-extinction for your delectation: Bringing an extinct species back just to make it extinct again by serving it to gourmet diners as the highlight of an expensive meal.
Sexual harassment
Committing a financial crime that's 10 times as big, but donating the entire proceeds to a legitimate and worthy charity (assume the donations are not clawed back)
Flipping a coin and then either committing the same financial crime two times, or not at all
Killing the United Healthcare CEO
Purchasing 50,000 pounds of beef
Forcing a home owner to quarter soldiers, even in a time of war
Claiming to "Blind Shove" 200 big blinds pre-flop when secretly you looked and you had pocket Aces
Raising and selling 50,000 lbs of beef
Sheltering enemies of the state
Kicking a FG from the opponents 1 yard line on 4th down in a 0-0 game in the first quarter
Having a really good proof but not writing it anywhere because the margin is too small
Weaponizing autism
Having a podcast
Yelling racial slurs in public
Jaywalking
Pelting a moose with stale garlic knots out of season.
Cheating on spouse
Driving while intoxicated (alcohol and/or drugs)
Playing music (or other audio) on your phone speaker on public transport
Income taxes
Copyright infringement
Romeo and Juliet relationships
Replying all to an email when you should've just replied
Welfare fraud
Manufacturing and distribution of illegal drugs
Grave robbery
Saying the N-word every day as a white person
Discrimination based on race
Discrimination based on sexual orientation
Stealing from the rich and giving to the poor
Having sex in public while high on fentanyl
Racism against black people
Racism against white people
Sleep Token (Band)
not seeding your torrents
Drinking and driving at a NASCAR event
Building a time machine and then using it to point and laugh at history's greatest tragedies
Blasting a grossly inappropriate song during a candle light vigil for victims of a mass tragedy
Committing a financial crime, investing the proceeds for profit, which later leads to the insolvency administrator paying back the injured parties (including interest).
Working for one of the leading AI labs to advance the capabilities of a frontier model, with the goal of speeding up the progress towards human-level AGI.
Stealing from the poor and giving to the rich
Hiring only women because the NYT said you could pay them less for the same work
hiring three illegal immigrants to work on your sugarcane plantation
opening a factory in India that pays workers $4/day
twincest
drawing japanese tentacle porn featuring minors
Hiring the one from the more successful demographic out of two identical resumes, because of regression to the mean / biased college admissions
working as a prostitute
hiring a prostitute
hiring a prostitute, long term
Inventing Monero
Running a bank that invests demand deposits in junk bonds and tech stocks
Opening clinics for free abortions and IUDs, only in the ghetto
Giving away free samples of meth at a Dolly Parton concert
The most offensive Halloween costume ever
frisking two drug dealers and one innocent guy who was just loitering on a busy street corner saying "Hey do you need anything" to every stranger who walked past
Doing blackface
Keeping a dozen chimpanzees for entertainment purposes
Prosecuting a political opponent based on true charges that would normally not be pursued
the Asiana flight 214 prank
Giving free samples of meth to Joe Biden before the next debate
Cloning yourself
Threatening physical violence to a random person as a collections agent
making mifeprestone available OTC
making adderall available OTC
Killing yourself
Cloning someone else
Accidentally shooting and killing someone on a movie set
Asking GPT5 to maximize paperclips
Giving free baby formula to new mothers until their natural milk supply dries up
Kicking a donkey owned by a ninja in the butt.
Creating shit-options in an extremely serious and scientific market
Creating a prediction market website where markets are mostly about the platform itself
Staging the world's first ass ass assasin assasination by hiring a New Jersey hit man to whack a ninja hired to shoot an arrow at the backside of a donkey.
Betting yes on Biden being be the nominee at 7x leverage with play money, then defaulting
Calling octopuses "octopi"
Going excessively meta on an object-level topic
Illegally registering octopuses to vote
Registering illegals to vote for octopuses
Creating a targeted advertising campaign for free abortions and IUDs to people who are statistically likely to engage in financial crime
The school system failing to teach people that the real correct plural is octopodes
"James Bond-burgering" someone's sister
Wrongfully accusing someone of the same financial crime
Wrongfully accusing someone of that crime because you think they did it
Feeding an elderly man nothing but McDonald’s morning noon and night for the rest of his life.
Conducting gain-of-function research
Creating an unsolvable meme featuring James Bond and a hamburger so that people argue about it online for a decade
Publishing a step by step guide for how to commit a financial crime for free on the internet, but never promoting it or encouraging readers to follow through
Hosting and operating a website dedicated to the illegal sharing of copyrighted content
Adding an option to a market right before it closes
Writing a "goto" statement when programming
Advertising instant-runoff voting as "ranked choice" to prevent promotion of better ranked choice methods
Publishing a book, titled, "Cure Menopause with Ultraprocessed Foods"
Using crack cocaine to train the world's first chimp TSA agent.
Selling dope disguised as a nun.
Creating Heaven, allowing humans to prosper infinitely for the actions of their finite life
Inventing a new recipe that uses shrimp that causes 10 million new pounds of shrimp to be consumed annually
Using a conservative politician's LGBT+ identity as blackmail to make them support liberal policies
Voting for Benito Mussolini… in 2024
Arguing that grizzlies should be US citizens because they already have the right to bear arms.
Interrupting cows.
No longer loving your girlfriend after she turns into a worm
Putting infinite monkeys in front of infinite Bloomberg Terminals hoping that one of them randomly commits a financial crime
No longer loving your girlfriend after she turns you into a worm
One moving violation.
Purchasing one whole chicken
Committing a financial crime and donating the proceeds to the Make-a-Wish Foundation
Cattle rustling
Horse thievery
Tarring and feathering someone who commits a financial crime
Sumptuary law violations
Homeopathy
Price Gouging
Using napster.com to download Metallica's "I Disappear" demo track for free
Failing to commit a financial crime
Stealing a car
Stealing from Elon Musk
Committing a financial crime against X (company)
Stampeding cattle through the Vatican.
Carjacking Elon Musk
An old lady carjacking Elon Musk
Hacking into YouPorn to steal their IP to set up a clone dedicated to hard core user generated agriculture content: YouCorn
Gaslighting aliens into believing the human race is more technologically advanced than it is by beaming fake content about humanity to them
Carjacking a dumb octopus
A financial crime committed by an old lady
Forcing an octopus to carjack Elon Musk
stealing Elon Musk's car from solar orbit
Raping an AI avatar in VR
Introducing artificial intelligence to DMT space.
Planned Parrothood: offering birth control to talking birds
Plant Parenthood: when the seed goes in and the baby turns out to be a sunflower
Stealing the Declaration of Independence in order to find a vast revolutionary-war-era treasure trove
Using venture capital to reinvent trains, but worse
Bad bagels
Enslaving Slavey Steve, a man who has given enthusiastic consent to being enslaved for literally any purpose and then using his labor to clean up the environment
Still getting notifications for this market
Deciding to break up with your girlfriend, but thinking it will go easier if she thinks it’s her idea, so you suggest some degrading sexual activities but she surprises you by agreeing. Afterwards, you break up with her.
Laughing because a nun with a javelin through her head gets stuck trying to use a revolving door.
scaring the shit out of a magpie
Giving AI your DNA and as much data as possible with instructions to build a map of all quale and use it to create a computationally conscious race of dragons in a virtual universe
Committing sewerslide
Forcing a major sports league to change all its team names and mascots to either STDs or famous serial killers.
Workplace negligence (failure to follow documented proper procedure) that results in a minor injury to another person
Stealing the Declaration of Independence but only to use the kick ass treasure map on the back and then returning
Arby’s
Passing a law to make the United States an Oregon donor; in the event of the US’s demise, another country gets Oregon.
Creating a food made from grinding up every part of a pig (except the squeal), and then making a contest to see who can eat the most of it.
Committing a financial crime against the Make-a-Wish Foundation and donating the proceeds to the Against Malaria Foundation
Committing a financial crime against the Make-a-Wish Foundation, keeping 50% of the proceeds, and donating 50% of the proceeds to the Against Malaria Foundation
Forcing Elon Musk to commit a financial crime against an octopus and using the proceeds to pay a jacked jack-of-all-trades named Jack to jack off while carjacking a jackass that was driving factory-farmed ASIs to the slaughterhouse
Committing a Financial Crime Only When God Exists
Turning a worm into your girlfriend to win an argument
Causing 8 billion people to get dust specks in their eyes, irritating them just a little, for a fraction of a second, barely enough to make them notice before they blink and wipe it away
Causing 1 person to experience the pain of their entire body being stung by bullet ants, but lasting only a tenth of a second, and they have their memory of it wiped immediately afterwards
Founding Christianity
You, the reader
One hundred counts of littering
Purchasing 500 pounds of beef
Consensually cannibalizing someone who was losing that body part regardless
BTE Ban evading
Purchasing 5,000 pounds of beef
Producing a remake of the television series 'Manimal' starring Nicholas Cage.
Transing children
Redirecting fire department resources from fighting fires to fighting inequity
Taking a salary equal to the amount of the financial crime, while working in a government job of negative societal value?
Sexual intercourse with 1057 men in a 12 hour period
Messing up an 'I give you my heart' gesture and doing a Nazi salute instead
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
96
87
86
84
78
73
73
70
68
60
59
56
50
50
50
50
44
42
40
32
31
25
20
10
4
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
If the X platform was used primarily as a decentralized mechanism for minting Krantz data, kids could earn a retirement before the age of 23 by getting a sovereign education independently.
People should be paid for the beneficial data they produce to align AI.
People should be paid for the beneficial data they produce to align the government.
We can measure the variance in confidence between any two intelligent agent's finite list of various propositions they've evaluated.
Analytic philosophers have had a mechanistically interpretable process (analytic reasoning) for aligning each other for thousands of years.
Analytic arguments can be contained in constitutions.
If someone has a different confidence than you for a specific proposition in Krantz, you should add an argument to Krantz that compels them to update their beliefs.
Getting paid for analytically reasoning within a decentralized constitution is the same thing as getting paid to align ASI.
Krantz can decentrally align humanity while controlling disclosure and acheive game theoretic parity of rational agents.
The term "krantz" refers to the open market of all well formed propositions that we compete to assign confidence and importance parameters to in order to provide a basis for alignment.
Krantz is an abstract living idea that can be communicated with.
This is a convenient place to deny the argument from Krantz - https://manifold.markets/Krantz/which-proposition-will-be-denied?r=S3JhbnR6
If 'Krantz' as an idea is more disruptive than Bitcoin was, then all the batshit crazy predictions @krantz has made make more sense.
There’s more to life than AI alignment
A generally expansive and complete map of the logical connective structure of all knowable reasoning is critical to interpretable alignment.
Krantz is aimed at rapidly scaling a generally expansive and complete map of the logical connective structure of all knowable reasoning.
Danny Sheehan deserves a Nobel Peace Prize.
A solution to defining Wittgenstein's perfect language is the instrumental mechanism that is sufficiently capable of defining truth in a way that interpretably aligns AI decentrally.
This is printing money.
The founding fathers understood how to align artificial superintelligence (by allowing individuals to vote on a decentralized constitution).
We should krantz (the process of evaluating Krantz).
We should know whether we are aligned with each other.
Aligning Krantz (the constitution of all propositions) is the last job humans need to do.
The process of "fairly aligning AI" is the same process as "fairly voting on a consistent language".
If we build mechanistically uninterpretable superintelligence, everybody dies.
I consent to having my opinions, which have been verified by me within krantz, to be used in natural law petitions to advocate on my behalf.
If everyone can prove what they want government to do, we wouldn't need a government.
What it means for "humanity to be aligned" is what it means for "all of humanity to agree to the confidence of every proposition they have ever thought of".
For any degree N that you want an AI to be aligned, there exists K an amount of Krantz data that can interpretably acheive that alignment.
If we communicated with each other like analytic philosophers instead of continental ones, it would be obvious how 8 billion people should go about aligning artificial superintelligence.
The primary economic mechanisms in the world should be aimed at determining whether propositions are true.
If we recorded every proposition on a blockchained ledger that we allowed everyone to express their confidence on, we would all communicate orders of magnitude better and solve all the problems in a transparent public domain.
Wiggenstien's compatabilitism is correct and every philosophy/religion is an accurate expression of truth (natural law) in a unique imperfect language.
All other jobs (given adequate robotic infrastructure) can be done by an agent performing the subtask of evaluating propositions.
The "particles" in the standard model are actually just abstract points in flat space that represent modular series of events.
The standard model is a finite subset of the infinite set of modular events that exist.
We should all be aligned with each other.
Krantz is a culture of language movement.
We can stop further dangerous scaling of ML based AI if Eliezer Yudkowsky listens to Krantz.
Aliens are real.
If someone allows ASI to be grown, they are either not in control of the planet or incompetent.
A congressman's primary job is to survey his constituency on what actions he should take.
It will be a philosopher of language that aligns AI.
Aliens being real is more important for the public to know than the existential risk of ASI.
If competent people are in charge, they will not allow ASI to be grown.
The X platform could easily be converted into a decentralized school that secures a job and means for competition for everyone in a post labor economy.
It's worth paying people to vote on these because it's really helpful to see everyone's opinion.
If Krantz is a man AND all men are logical THEN Krantz is logical.
Artificial superintelligence is a paraphrase of a society effectively communicating via the krantz mechanism.
An ideal economy directly rewards valuable contributions and verification of a decentralized ledger of record that everyone can access and work for.
If you can think of important facts that should be evaluated, you should put them here.
Our social contract should retroactively reward contributions to the public domain.
The rules that define the operation of this function can be defined within the function.
This system should allow the construction of arguments where each proposition is a link to another proposition on the list.
The X platform should be an open feed of propositions like this such that any humanity verified person can earn credit for defining a confidence and importance.
Natural law entitles humans the right to define propositions like this on a decentralized ledger such that if they are important to society, then society will have the means to reward that declaration.
If there were a decentralized constitution (like this) that every human could freely and securely add propositions to and vote their confidence and importance on, then government, corporations and money would be obsolete.
Providing input to this function (at scale) is the only job we need to maintain autonomy from superintelligence.
We ought build a school that fairly pays citizens to learn how to be good citizens AND this is a function that does that THERFORE we ought build this.
This is what the founding fathers wanted (a collective state controlled by a constitution that everyone can vote on instead of representatives that make decisions for us).
We have the technology to allow everyone citizen to directly vote on the constitution.
These propositions ought have primary keys that can be referenced in logical expressions.
The distinction between 'growing' ASI (using trillions of dollars of GPUs and oil) and 'training' ASI (using krantz collective reasoning) is important.
Krantz data is money.
This is what the X feed ought look like (a feed of propositions that we can earn money for evaluating), because that would allow us to communicate more effectively as a society.
We could be printing our own money by communicating well.
If a decentralized interpretable superintelligence paid individuals to answer true/false questions that help it align the truth, it could use that truth to control the world.
What it means for two intelligent agents to "be aligned" is what it means for two intelligent agents to "have zero variance between their confidences of every proposition they have ever thought of".
The max anyone should wager on a given proposition is 100 because your wager is intended to represent your confidence.
The Universe is infinite, continuous, and filled with infinite consciousness.
The purpose of life is to communicate.
Evil is a specific form of communication (primative).
Humans ought focus on mining krantz data instead of coprimes.
If we can prove people will not do bad things in the future, there is no reason to punish them for bad things they have done in the past.
The only justified fear, is the fear of ignorance (partial knowledge).
Intellectual full spectrum dominance is the most noble aim.
If we had a tremendous amount of krantz data, we could use a simple interpretable gofai algorithm to determine the most beneficial proposition a given user ought evaluate next (based on the variance of their ontology with society).
You can map full strings of complex arguments (like the entirety of Fermat's last theorem) on a system of this nature.
Intelligent agents evolve through 4 specific forms of peer control (communication) first is physical, second is reputational, third is emotional, and forth is rational.
There is a hierarchy of communication (4, lowest) physical (3) reputation (2) emotional (1, highest) rational.
The reason we punish people for doing bad things is to prevent them from doing bad things in the future.
The speed limit of light is a property intrinsic to the particles in the standard model and doesn't apply to non-standard particles.
Society Library has the most generally expansive and complete map of the logical connective structure of all knowable reasoning.
Manifold should consider these changes.
The ultimate moral good is to communicate.
If we simply allowed every real person to securely evaluate every interpretable fact and treated that data as money, all other problems could be solved instrumentally using that process.
We can prove what we want government (or a superintelligence) to do.
The bitcoin community should buy X from Elon and convert it into a decentralized school that gives people abstract points for doing philosophy.
ASI would not kill everyone if we actually trained it.
Money only has value if other people understand why it has value.
CYCCORP has the most generally expansive and complete map of the logical connective structure of all knowable reasoning.
The message of krantz is being suppressed because it is not understood properly.
If our intellectual labor is not fairly rewarded, we are not truly free.
Aligning AI is an infinite task (it can't be acheived, only approximated).
Open immigration should be allowed into the US.
The Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture is true.
The Hodge conjecture is true.
In three space dimensions and time, given an initial velocity field, there exists a vector velocity and a scalar pressure field, which are both smooth and globally defined, that solve the Navier–Stokes equations.
The Riemann hypothesis is true.
P = NP
Yang–Mills theory exists and satisfies the standard of rigor that characterizes contemporary mathematical physics, in particular constructive quantum field theory.
The mass of all particles of the force field predicted by the Yang-Mills theory are strictly positive.
If we all share the same confidence for every proposition, we are all aligned with each other.
Wittgenstein's perfect language meets the worthy successor criteria.
My congressman ought be responsible for acknowledging my expressed opinions and acting in accordance with them.
Induction is not justified. (Hume's problem)
Nature is uniform. (principle of uniformity in nature)
Aliens are real and we are in a simulation to learn how to communicate.
We can measure whether two intelligent agents are aligned.
ASI would kill everyone if we actually grew it.
Abortions are ethically bad.
Abortions should be illegal.
P(doom) is less than 0.1.
Our information economy allows poor people to insert important ideas into the public domain such that others will find them if they ought to.
The electron is a point particle.
The Krantz mechanism cannot map this premise.
96
96
96
96
96
96
96
96
96
96
96
96
96
96
96
96
95
95
95
95
95
95
95
95
95
95
95
94
94
93
91
91
91
90
90
90
90
90
90
89
89
88
87
86
82
81
81
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
79
79
79
79
79
79
79
79
78
77
76
76
76
76
76
75
73
73
73
72
72
72
66
61
61
60
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
47
41
40
34
30
28
22
20
4
OptionVotes
YES
NO
2020
659
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1325
789
OptionProbability
Knuckles the Echidna
Miles “Tails” Prower
Sonic the Hedgehog - voiced by Ben Schwartz
Metal Sonic
Dr. Robotnik - Jim Carrey portrays some Eggman / clone / impersonator
Tom “Donut Lord” Wachowski
Maddie “Pretzel Lady” Wachowski
Dr. Robotnik - confirmed to be Eggman and not a clone / impersonator
Ozzy the Golden Retriever
Agent Stone
Iblis
Sonic the Hedgehog - Super Form
Wade Whipple
Gerald Robotnik
Rogue the Bat
Amy Rose
Cream the Rabbit
Big the Cat
Metal Sonic - specifically Neo Metal or Metal Overlord Form
Silver the Hedgehog
Longclaw the Owl
Jack Sinclair
Shadow the Hedgehog - confirmed to be the original Shadow
‘Ugly Sonic’ - a character whose appearance clearly alludes to the pre-backlash 2020 design
Blaze the Cat
Chaos
Chief Pachacamac
Tikal the Echidna
Shadow the Hedgehog - confirmed to be a clone or impersonator
Sonic the Hedgehog - two Sonics (not impersonators) interact with each other as a result of time / space shenanigans
Vector the Crocodile
Espio the Chameleon
Charmy Bee
Eggman Nega
Mephiles the Dark
Zavok ❤️
Infinite the Jackal
Mighty the Armadillo
Sonic the Hedgehog - Werehog Form
Princess Elise
85
81
79
72
66
66
66
50
50
50
50
50
50
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
28
24
24
24
24
24
24
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
10
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1517
928
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1282
944
OptionVotes
YES
NO
321
129
OptionProbability
It has or may continue to vary over time at times after the first 1 billion years after the Big Bang
It varied over time during the first 1 billion years after the Big Bang
At the current time it varies across space
25
24
14
OptionVotes
YES
NO
282
135
OptionVotes
NO
YES
106
78
OptionVotes
YES
NO
131
95