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Top stories

NASA Sets Sept. 22 Unveiling of New Astronaut Class, Artemis II Briefings

NASA Sets Sept. 22 Unveiling of New Astronaut Class, Artemis II Briefings

Authors

9

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Space Launch System rocket

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.77%chance

347169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3717

270

Will Trump suggest renaming SLS to Trump Launch System (or similar)?

Jun 6, 12:03 AMJan 21, 1:01 AM

3%chance

84772

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5686

176

Will SpaceX launch a non-SpaceX payload on Starship before 2030?

Jun 10, 11:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

78.11%chance

173378

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1889

529

How many rocket launches will be needed for the first Artemis human moon-landing mission?

Nov 27, 11:19 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

313213

OptionProbability

5–9

20–24

10–14

15–19

1–4

25–29

30–∞

24

24

22

18

6

3

2

Will SLS launch in 2027?

Feb 28, 12:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

181920

OptionVotes

YES

NO

173

58

When will Haven-2 launch?

Mar 28, 3:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71337

OptionProbability

2030

Later than 2032/never

2031

2032

2029

2028

2027

2026

23

22

18

14

10

8

3

2

Which will be the first hybrid-propellant rocket to reach orbit?

Apr 4, 1:46 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

8789

OptionProbability

Eris (Gilmour Space)

None reach orbit by EOY 2035

Other

Kestrel V (ATSpace)

Aurora (Reaction Dynamics)

SL1 (HyImpulse)

54

28

6

5

4

4

Will Astra's Rocket 4 Launch in 2026?

Jan 23, 2:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2%chance

3592

OptionVotes

YES

NO

626

72

Is this "savage" takedown of Jose Luis Ricon actually savage?

Dec 11, 8:01 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10

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