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Prediction markets for Spaces

Will there be a larger amount of mass intentionally sent “downhill” to Earth from space than “uphill” in 2050?

Jan 17, 12:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

36.49%chance

2513090

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13201

7571

Space datacenter industry generates $100M+ annual revenue by December 31, 2029

Oct 31, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.54%chance

2312712

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1665

601

Will a space hotel be operational before 2035?

Nov 7, 8:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

41.07%chance

9510712

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2222

1191

Will space tourism become mainstream by 2027?

Sep 15, 12:29 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

12.01%chance

508678

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4954

1083

Earliest date we will see credible claims that a new space data center is cheaper than its terrestrial counterpart?

Feb 5, 7:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

118634

OptionProbability

>= 2046

2028-2029

2030-2031

2032-2033

2034-2035

2036-2037

2038-2039

2040-2041

2027

2042-2043

2044-2045

2026

13

10

10

9

9

9

9

8

7

7

6

4

By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason?

Nov 9, 5:02 AMJan 2, 5:01 AM

163510

OptionProbability

Jan 1, 2029

Jan 1, 2028

Jan 1, 2027

65

57

39

Will anyone die in space before 2030?

Dec 15, 6:11 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

31.36%chance

483433

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1007

880

Will we have a terrestrial space elevator by 2150?

Sep 4, 7:26 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

29.32%chance

323000

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1022

976

Will Elon Musk spend a year in outer space?

Mar 28, 8:03 AMMar 29, 3:59 AM

6%chance

181791

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1917

858

Will my Agile Space Industries options be worth something?

Apr 6, 7:41 PMApr 2, 5:59 AM

77.43%chance

51540

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3308

1022

Will there be an inflatable space habitat in orbit before 2030?

Jan 27, 6:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.8%chance

501245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1040

950

Will AMD release a product that is competitive with NVIDIA in the AI hardware accelerator space before 2028?

Dec 26, 8:33 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

70.56%chance

261072

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1014

904

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