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Prediction markets for Spaces

Space datacenter industry generates $100M+ annual revenue by December 31, 2029

Oct 31, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.08%chance

3215738

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1276

785

Earliest date we will see credible claims that a new space data center is cheaper than its terrestrial counterpart?

Feb 5, 7:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1615237

OptionProbability

2030-2031

2032-2033

2034-2035

2028-2029

2036-2037

>= 2046

2038-2039

2040-2041

2042-2043

2027

2044-2045

2026

16

16

16

10

9

9

5

5

5

4

4

2

Will there be a larger amount of mass intentionally sent “downhill” to Earth from space than “uphill” in 2050?

Jan 17, 12:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

38.06%chance

2713596

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12765

7830

Will a space hotel be operational before 2035?

Nov 7, 8:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

39.71%chance

9610762

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2188

1241

Will space tourism become mainstream by 2027?

Sep 15, 12:29 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

10.46%chance

509178

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5454

1020

Will at least 1% of datacenter capacity be in space by EOY 2028?

Feb 4, 3:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.24%chance

318714

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4113

100

Will anyone die in space before 2030?

Dec 15, 6:11 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

31.36%chance

483433

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1007

880

Will we have a terrestrial space elevator by 2150?

Sep 4, 7:26 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

29.32%chance

323000

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1022

976

Will Euclid space telescope lower my credence in the standard model of cosmology?

Jul 23, 4:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.74%chance

321956

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6059

5939

Will my Agile Space Industries options be worth something?

Apr 6, 7:41 PMApr 2, 5:59 AM

77.43%chance

51540

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3308

1022

Will there be an inflatable space habitat in orbit before 2030?

Jan 27, 6:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.8%chance

501245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1040

950

Will AMD release a product that is competitive with NVIDIA in the AI hardware accelerator space before 2028?

Dec 26, 8:33 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

72.07%chance

271122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

994

954

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