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Prediction markets for SpaceX

Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?

Apr 25, 3:04 AMDec 31, 2:00 PM

8%chance

117231827

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3197

957

By which flight will SpaceX successfully recover both Starship and its Booster?

Jun 8, 1:42 PMJul 2, 5:59 AM

90225732

OptionProbability

20

15

14

13

12

6

8

10

7

9

11

88

52

34

20

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2028?

Feb 7, 6:16 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

11.75%chance

169146317

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2970

528

Will SpaceX successfully catch the Starship upper stage in 2025? (Everyday Astronaut 2025 Predictions)

Jan 1, 6:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

0.11%chance

2833347

OptionVotes

YES

NO

30120

33

Will SpaceX land a human on the Moon before they land a human on Mars?

May 6, 3:39 PMJun 10, 3:29 PM

84%chance

4926776

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

311

Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?

Mar 18, 12:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.74%chance

14526181

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3924

553

When will SpaceX land on the moon?

Jan 9, 3:23 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2911036

OptionProbability

>= 2032

2029

2031

2030

2028

2027

Before 2027

40

18

16

12

10

3

1

Will SpaceX launch a reused Super Heavy rocket booster successfully by the end of 2025?

Jun 21, 12:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

0.42%chance

246692

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1602

7

Will SpaceX land on the MOON by Dec 31st 2029?

Jan 11, 3:26 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40%chance

245911

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1434

361

Will SpaceX successfully land Starship on Mars before January 1st 2030?

Oct 16, 11:29 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.63%chance

485495

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1473

733

SpaceX Starship Orbit in 2023? (No) → SpaceX Mars Mission by 2030?

Apr 28, 7:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.63%chance

264278

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1660

658

Will SpaceX deliver the next set of human astronauts to the lunar surface?

Jan 10, 2:57 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

45%chance

232767

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1337

537

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