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Prediction markets for SpaceX

By which flight will SpaceX successfully recover both Starship and its Booster?

Jun 8, 1:42 PMJul 2, 5:59 AM

114284037

OptionProbability

20

16

15

14

6

8

10

12

7

9

11

13

94

61

42

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?

Apr 25, 3:04 AMDec 31, 2:00 PM

8.13%chance

127235268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3153

961

Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2028?

Feb 7, 6:16 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

3.45%chance

175159550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6356

304

[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.72%chance

6445633

OptionVotes

YES

NO

33225

2613

Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?

Mar 18, 12:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18.12%chance

15327561

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4161

496

When will SpaceX land on the moon?

Jan 9, 3:23 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3723398

OptionProbability

>= 2032

2029

2028

2030

2031

2027

Before 2027

39

16

15

14

11

3

1

Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than SpaceX after both IPO?

Apr 20, 9:30 PMApr 20, 9:29 PM

36.51%chance

4019736

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2027

1887

Elon Musk actually gifts a SpaceX share to every American child in 2027?

Oct 19, 8:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.32%chance

12415970

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3034

1317

Will SpaceX land on the MOON by Dec 31st 2029?

Jan 11, 3:26 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

31%chance

319381

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1600

271

Will SpaceX successfully land Starship on Mars before January 1st 2030?

Oct 16, 11:29 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12.32%chance

536929

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2503

508

SpaceX Starship Orbit in 2023? (No) → SpaceX Mars Mission by 2030?

Apr 28, 7:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13%chance

275029

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2499

478

Will SpaceX market cap be higher 1 year after IPO?

May 16, 3:13 AMMay 16, 3:12 AM

44.89%chance

212173

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1314

628

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