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Prediction markets for SpaceX Starlink

Will SpaceX attempt to deploy Starlink satellites in the first fully-orbital Starship–SuperHeavy flight?

Mar 24, 7:01 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

65%chance

6412011

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1042

880

Will Starship have a 99% success rate as of its 500th payload-carrying launch?

Jan 4, 2:01 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

74.6%chance

272368

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1580

651

SpaceX / Starlink surpass $50 billion revenue by 2030

Jan 21, 2:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

77.13%chance

331976

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1569

706

How many rocket launches will be needed for the Artemis III human moon-landing mission?

Nov 27, 11:19 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

231586

OptionProbability

15–19

10–14

5–9

20–24

30–∞

1–4

25–29

50

33

8

5

2

1

1

Will Starlink launch their own phone before 2028?

Oct 17, 11:38 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

18.96%chance

101072

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2067

484

Starlink (SpaceX) has operational internet satellites in Mars orbit by 2045

Jan 28, 7:49 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

58.21%chance

18617

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1034

937

Will SpaceX pick up and return at least 10 starlink satellites to Earth by mid 2031?

May 12, 7:11 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

36.25%chance

8339

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1194

869

Which Elon Musk company will IPO next?

Mar 27, 2:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14329

OptionProbability

Other

Starlink (independent of SpaceX)

SpaceX

Neuralink

X.com (Twitter)

X.ai

Boring Company

30

29

13

12

7

7

2

Will Starlink spin out of SpaceX and IPO before the end of 2026?

May 9, 4:12 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.8%chance

11216

OptionVotes

YES

NO

189

53

Starlink (SpaceX) has operational internet satellites in Moon orbit by 2035

Jan 21, 2:49 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

45%chance

8164

OptionVotes

NO

YES

215

198

Will Starlink spin out of SpaceX and IPO before the end of 2027?

May 9, 4:12 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.63%chance

6104

OptionVotes

YES

NO

132

76

Will starlink spin off from spacex and no longer be a subsidiary by the end of 2028?

Jul 1, 4:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.71%chance

374

OptionVotes

YES

NO

158

63

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