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Prediction markets for Sparks

Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?

Jan 3, 3:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27%chance

8325575

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8434

2761

Will the class-action lawsuit by artists against several AI art generators be successful?

Jan 17, 4:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.76%chance

725643

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6181

6090

SOAI#7: A movie or short film produced with significant use of AI wins major audience praise and sparks backlash

Oct 9, 11:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.45%chance

282673

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1346

743

Will there be a large violent dispute between protesters and ICE in 2026?

Jan 10, 1:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.79%chance

232199

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1419

706

Will ICE or CBP kill another civilian, which sparks at least one protest, by the end of January 2027?

Jan 26, 7:39 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

62.72%chance

241154

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

77

Will more than 30 doctors be criminally charged for providing life/health of the mother abortion-related care by 2030?

Dec 18, 8:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.1%chance

5606

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1422

703

By 2030 will we have video-to-video where an LLM can continue any video prompt in any way you like?

Jan 3, 1:29 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76.32%chance

10446

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1075

964

Will Shahid Butt be elected councillor for Sparkhill in the May 7 local elections?

Mar 23, 9:38 PMMay 7, 11:59 PM

74.47%chance

2247

OptionVotes

NO

YES

171

59

Which cryonics provider has highest chance of survival? [resolves in a few months, clever market mechanism]

Sep 13, 4:23 PMAug 1, 3:11 PM

2223

OptionProbability

Sparks Brain Preservation (Oregon Cryonics), UP

Alcor, DOWN

Alcor, UP

Cryonics Institute, UP

Cryonics Institute, DOWN

Other

Tomorrow Bio / EBF, UP

Tomorrow Bio / EBF, DOWN

Sparks Brain Preservation (Oregon Cryonics), DOWN

17

13

11

11

11

11

9

9

8

Will La Croix sparkling water still be owned by National Beverage Corp at the end of 2028?

Apr 30, 8:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54%chance

3118

OptionVotes

NO

YES

108

92

What will be the next capture to be skipped in Super Mario Odyssey Minimum Captures?

Jan 11, 6:54 AMOct 14, 5:54 AM

252

OptionProbability

Spark Pylon (Ruined Kingdom)

Bowser (Moon Kingdom)

Spark Pylon (Cap Kingdom)

62

20

18

What is the best sparkling water brand?

Aug 13, 10:19 PM

180

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