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Prediction markets for Speak AI

Will the state-of-the-art AI model use latent space to reason by 2026?

Dec 14, 1:06 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

2.74%chance

4599417

OptionVotes

YES

NO

59606

1678

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

51.32%chance

5110194

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1060

902

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.29%chance

216832

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3327

301

6. An AI system will pass the Turing test for speech.

Dec 27, 8:17 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

75.75%chance

174167

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1767

566

By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason?

Nov 9, 5:02 AMJan 2, 5:01 AM

142880

OptionProbability

Jan 1, 2029

Jan 1, 2028

Jan 1, 2027

64

52

40

Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?

May 16, 3:19 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM

16.77%chance

252719

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1920

176

By 2033, Will an AI be elected to public office in a democracy?

Mar 25, 6:32 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

26.93%chance

491642

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1174

908

xAI builds truth-seeking AI before 2027?

May 7, 12:46 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

43.64%chance

121346

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1136

880

Before 2027, will I enjoy playing Minecraft w/ an AI while voice calling comparably to playing over call with a friend?

Dec 19, 6:28 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.39%chance

14748

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1478

676

Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?

Jun 15, 1:27 PMMay 31, 4:00 AM

64.02%chance

20691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

775

Will "A case for courage, when speaking of AI danger" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 27, 3:41 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

52.94%chance

5389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1311

190

My voice AI covertly acts as me in pharmacy calls by mid 2029

Jun 4, 10:32 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

57%chance

9301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1151

869

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