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Prediction markets for Speak AI

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

45%chance

6012466

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1187

785

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3477

288

By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason?

Nov 9, 5:02 AMJan 2, 5:01 AM

163560

OptionProbability

Jan 1, 2029

Jan 1, 2028

Jan 1, 2027

65

57

39

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.4%chance

222282

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1377

729

By 2033, Will an AI be elected to public office in a democracy?

Mar 25, 6:32 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

26.93%chance

491642

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1174

908

xAI builds truth-seeking AI before 2027?

May 7, 12:46 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

34.55%chance

131586

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1376

727

Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?

Jun 15, 1:27 PMMay 31, 4:00 AM

64.02%chance

20691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

775

Will animals speak through AI by 2030?

Jan 15, 1:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.31%chance

10414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

109

92

Will "A case for courage, when speaking of AI danger" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 27, 3:41 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

52.94%chance

5389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1311

190

My voice AI covertly acts as me in pharmacy calls by mid 2029

Jun 4, 10:32 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

57%chance

9301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1151

869

Will Apple introduce an AI assistant product that can speak and display basic human-like emotions before EOY 2027

Jan 3, 9:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.06%chance

6105

OptionVotes

NO

YES

131

77

Will I be verbally speaking with a free AI in Ukrainian that can speak as slowly as I want and repeat itself exactly?

Apr 22, 6:38 PMJan 20, 7:37 PM

59.42%chance

321

OptionVotes

NO

YES

121

83

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