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Top stories

Air Force Reverses Stance, Grants Military Honors to Ashli Babbitt

US Domestic Policy

Air Force Reverses Stance, Grants Military Honors to Ashli Babbitt

Authors

33

10 months ago

Prediction markets for Speaker

Will a Manifest speaker run a direct science funding Organization by mid 2027?

Jun 9, 9:27 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

33.66%chance

36932

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14039

7123

Democrat elected Speaker of the House by end of 2026?

Nov 27, 6:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.06%chance

43710

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2836

353

Will Mike Johnson be removed as Speaker before 2027?

Oct 27, 6:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.91%chance

153123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1531

653

Who will be the next female Speaker of the House?

Mar 23, 2:47 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

181654

OptionProbability

Other

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC)

Katherine Clark

Marjorie Taylor Greene (MTG)

81

11

6

1

Will there be a transgender president before a transgender speaker of the house.

Apr 2, 12:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.37%chance

201611

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2128

573

LWCW 2026 keynote speaker [ADD OPTIONS]

Aug 8, 9:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

171444

OptionProbability

Other

Nate Soares

Anna Riedl

Oliver Habryka

Alysa Liu

Nuño Sempere

Aella

Gwern

Gwern

Tetra

Zvi Mowshowitz

Tim Urban

Joscha Bach

Scott Alexander

Duncan Sabien

David Gerard

Eliezer Yudkowksy

24

17

11

9

7

5

5

4

4

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

Will any member of "The Squad" become Speaker of the House before 2033?

Aug 8, 7:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.24%chance

101065

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2049

488

Will Marjorie Taylor Greene ever become Speaker of the House?

Feb 7, 11:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.56%chance

13819

OptionVotes

YES

NO

742

112

Will "MAGA speakers at NatCon were mostly against AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 9, 2:55 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.01%chance

3548

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1534

933

Will English be the first language to pass 2 billion speakers worldwide?

Jan 29, 4:11 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

86.1%chance

12508

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1404

906

The number of daily Irish speakers will increase in the next Irish census

Nov 15, 5:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.24%chance

9113

OptionVotes

YES

NO

166

90

Will the Speaker of the House of Representatives still be in the Presidential line of succession in 2050?

Apr 14, 3:55 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

76.5%chance

3103

OptionVotes

NO

YES

147

88

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