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Top stories

Air Force Reverses Stance, Grants Military Honors to Ashli Babbitt

US Domestic Policy

Air Force Reverses Stance, Grants Military Honors to Ashli Babbitt

Authors

33

7 months ago

Prediction markets for Speaker

Will a Manifest speaker run a direct science funding Organization by mid 2027?

Jun 9, 9:27 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

40.83%chance

34932

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12039

8306

Democrat elected Speaker of the House by end of 2026?

Nov 27, 6:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.06%chance

43710

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2836

353

Who will win the January 2027 Speaker of the House election?

Oct 26, 3:18 AMJan 4, 7:59 AM

263333

OptionProbability

Hakeem Jeffries

Ro khanna

Other

Mike Johnson

63

15

15

7

Will Mike Johnson be removed as Speaker before 2027?

Oct 27, 6:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.85%chance

142861

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1255

797

Mike Johnson gone as House speaker before Nov 3 2026?

Nov 24, 9:29 PMNov 4, 10:59 AM

42.37%chance

212257

OptionVotes

YES

NO

249

152

Will there be a transgender president before a transgender speaker of the house.

Apr 2, 12:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.37%chance

201611

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2128

573

Will a member of my debate team win the "Top Speaker" award at our April debate tournament?

Mar 11, 11:18 AMApr 21, 11:59 PM

62.32%chance

91098

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1286

777

In which year will the US have its next female Speaker of the House?

Mar 23, 2:41 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

121069

OptionProbability

Other

2027

2026

2024

2025

77

15

5

1

1

Will any member of "The Squad" become Speaker of the House before 2033?

Aug 8, 7:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.24%chance

101065

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2049

488

Will "MAGA speakers at NatCon were mostly against AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 9, 2:55 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.01%chance

3548

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1534

933

Will English be the first language to pass 2 billion speakers worldwide?

Jan 29, 4:11 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

86.1%chance

12508

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1404

906

Will the Speaker of the House be Someone Other Than Mike Johnson OR Hakeem Jeffries before March 1st, 2027?

Feb 9, 4:02 AMMar 2, 4:59 AM

34.3%chance

8298

OptionVotes

YES

NO

138

72

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