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Top stories

Air Force Reverses Stance, Grants Military Honors to Ashli Babbitt

US Domestic Policy

Air Force Reverses Stance, Grants Military Honors to Ashli Babbitt

Authors

33

3 months ago

Prediction markets for Speaker

Will Mike Johnson be removed as Speaker before 2026?

Feb 11, 8:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4.42%chance

235841

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4648

215

Democrat elected Speaker of the House by end of 2026?

Nov 27, 6:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.84%chance

32660

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2305

434

Will a Manifest speaker run a direct science funding Organization by mid 2027?

Jun 9, 9:27 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

52.36%chance

22432

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10483

9539

Will Mike Johnson be removed as Speaker before 2027?

Oct 27, 6:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.02%chance

101986

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1251

799

Will there be a transgender president before a transgender speaker of the house.

Apr 2, 12:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.37%chance

201611

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2128

573

Will any member of "The Squad" become Speaker of the House before 2033?

Aug 8, 7:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.24%chance

101065

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2049

488

On what dates will Lindsay Hoyle still be Speaker of the House?

Jul 2, 2:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4828

OptionProbability

2025-09-30 / 30th September 2025

2025-12-31 / 31st December 2025

2026-12-31 / 31st December 2026

100

98

82

Will the next Republican Speaker of the House (after Mike Johnson) be a white male?

Mar 22, 4:51 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

83.23%chance

25779

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1207

925

Who will be the first black Speaker of the House?

Oct 24, 7:54 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

8627

OptionProbability

Hakeem Jeffries

Other

Byron Donalds

Elon Musk

84

14

2

1

Will "MAGA speakers at NatCon were mostly against AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 9, 2:55 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.01%chance

3548

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1534

933

Will English be the first language to pass 2 billion speakers worldwide?

Jan 29, 4:11 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

86.1%chance

12508

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1404

906

Will Mike Johnson have a full term as Speaker of the House before another Republican becomes Speaker?

Nov 5, 7:46 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

32.88%chance

15317

OptionVotes

YES

NO

99

50

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