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Prediction markets for Speaker
[RESOLVES JANUARY 31] Will the Senate majority leader and speaker of the house both be Democrats after the 2026 midterms
Sep 26, 3:00 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM
98.13%chance
3772321
OptionVotes
72516
1379
Democrat elected Speaker of the House by end of 2026?
Nov 27, 6:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
2.95%chance
817204
OptionVotes
5736
174
Will a Manifest speaker run a direct science funding Organization by mid 2027?
Jun 9, 9:27 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
22.99%chance
511228
OptionVotes
18303
5464
Will Mike Johnson be removed as Speaker before 2027?
Oct 27, 6:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
13.01%chance
204053
OptionVotes
2585
387
Will Hakeem Jeffries be Speaker following the 2026 Election?
Aug 31, 2:07 AMJan 3, 11:59 PM
94.69%chance
183243
OptionVotes
2649
842
OptionProbability
87
7
6
1
Will there be a transgender president before a transgender speaker of the house.
Apr 2, 12:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
16.37%chance
201611
OptionVotes
2128
573
Will any member of "The Squad" become Speaker of the House before 2033?
Aug 8, 7:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
17.8%chance
111165
OptionVotes
2149
465
Will English be the first language to pass 2 billion speakers worldwide?
Jan 29, 4:11 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
90.14%chance
131024
OptionVotes
1916
838
Will "MAGA speakers at NatCon were mostly against AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Sep 9, 2:55 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
9.01%chance
3548
OptionVotes
1534
933
OptionVotes
238
42
Will a Speaker of the House of Representatives ascend to the Presidency in the 21st century?
Apr 14, 2:55 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM
23.3%chance
5107
OptionVotes
185
102