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Prediction markets for Special Edition

Who will create the first AI model to generate a high quality movie before 2028?

Feb 8, 12:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3912295

OptionProbability

Nobody (linked market resolves NO)

Other

Google (eg Gemini)

OpenAI (eg ChatGPT)

Anthropic (eg Claude)

IBM (eg Watson)

Microsoft (eg Copilot)

Mira (https://x.com/_Mira___Mira_)

DeepSeek

Amazon

Meta

72

12

8

6

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

55.66%chance

394057

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

932

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78%chance

16943

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1382

859

Which Model numbers will OpenAI release as a flagship before adding a letter (e.g. ‘o’ in 4o, o1)

Feb 6, 11:09 PMFeb 6, 10:38 PM

7696

OptionProbability

5.4

5.5

5.6

6

6.5

7

5.7

5.8

5.9

100

100

92

87

46

45

41

28

10

Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 5 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:37 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

91.85%chance

16610

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1169

959

Will the "Local Taxpayer Protection Act to Save Proposition 13" pass

Apr 25, 3:46 AMNov 4, 11:59 PM

19.06%chance

3526

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1521

836

Kindle+LLM+audio readout combination product is available from Amazon by mid 2027

Dec 16, 5:23 PMJul 1, 5:59 AM

38.74%chance

17460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1116

1014

Will the US have a deadline in place to eliminate the minting of pennies by the end of 2026?

Aug 11, 1:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.7%chance

11297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

139

104

Will d4vd get the death penalty?

Apr 24, 1:18 PMApr 24, 1:18 PM

25.6%chance

7122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

170

59

Will the Green Bay Packers allow fewer than 50 total points in their 2026 NFL preseason games?

Jun 22, 1:51 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

27.69%chance

7114

OptionVotes

YES

NO

165

58

Breaking Google Play Store 30% monopoly by 2030

Mar 13, 11:02 PMMar 2, 7:59 AM

67.12%chance

796

OptionVotes

NO

YES

293

215

Think Media! Not quite 3.5 Million YouTube followers. Will they reach 5 Million or more by end of 2028? (They teach.)

May 30, 1:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

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