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Who will create the first AI model to generate a high quality movie before 2028?

Feb 8, 12:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

4313583

OptionProbability

Nobody (linked market resolves NO)

Google (eg Gemini)

Other

OpenAI (eg ChatGPT)

Anthropic (eg Claude)

IBM (eg Watson)

Microsoft (eg Copilot)

Mira (https://x.com/_Mira___Mira_)

DeepSeek

Amazon

Meta

54

16

16

7

6

0

0

0

0

0

0

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

57.81%chance

404135

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1117

894

Which Model numbers will OpenAI release as a flagship before adding a letter (e.g. ‘o’ in 4o, o1)

Feb 6, 11:09 PMFeb 6, 10:38 PM

111689

OptionProbability

5.4

5.5

5.6

6

6.5

7

5.7

5.8

5.9

100

100

100

100

46

45

1

1

1

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78%chance

16943

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1382

859

Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 5 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:37 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

91.85%chance

16610

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1169

959

Kindle+LLM+audio readout combination product is available from Amazon by mid 2027

Dec 16, 5:23 PMJul 1, 5:59 AM

38.86%chance

18462

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1113

1016

Will there be a bald US president before February 2049?

Sep 12, 5:02 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

36.06%chance

8405

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1331

751

Will CoreWeave be bankrupt by EOY 2027?

Oct 27, 3:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.02%chance

13379

OptionVotes

YES

NO

221

45

Will d4vd get the death penalty?

Apr 24, 1:18 PMApr 24, 1:18 PM

17%chance

10243

OptionVotes

YES

NO

221

45

Breaking Google Play Store 30% monopoly by 2030

Mar 13, 11:02 PMMar 2, 7:59 AM

59.56%chance

10132

OptionVotes

YES

NO

245

241

Will a significant portion of primary care medicine be automated by EOY 2039?

Sep 29, 12:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76.6%chance

4103

OptionVotes

NO

YES

181

55

Will a Top 50 US public school district officially mandate or adopt an AI assistant for core grading by June 2027?

Jul 14, 11:03 AMMay 31, 11:59 PM

27.84%chance

798

OptionVotes

YES

NO

161

62

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