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Prediction markets for Special Review

Will the "Local Taxpayer Protection Act to Save Proposition 13" pass

Apr 25, 3:46 AMNov 4, 11:59 PM

19.06%chance

3526

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1521

836

Kindle+LLM+audio readout combination product is available from Amazon by mid 2027

Dec 16, 5:23 PMJul 1, 5:59 AM

38.74%chance

17460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1116

1014

Did Microsoft build a Majorana qubit?

Feb 21, 1:31 PMMay 12, 10:59 PM

27%chance

14321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

216

180

Which philosophy subfields will be represented by 3+ PhD-holders at Manifest 2026?

May 18, 11:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6247

OptionProbability

Applied Ethics

Decision Theory

Formal Epistemology

Metaethics

Philosophy of Mind

Philosophy of AI

Logic

Political Philosophy

Philosophy of Science

Philosophy of Language

History of Philosophy (non-ancient)

Ancient Philosophy

Continental Philosophy

Metaphysics

80

76

68

50

50

50

45

41

34

34

29

24

24

17

Will d4vd get the death penalty?

Apr 24, 1:18 PMApr 24, 1:18 PM

25.6%chance

7122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

170

59

Will the Green Bay Packers allow fewer than 50 total points in their 2026 NFL preseason games?

Jun 22, 1:51 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

27.69%chance

7114

OptionVotes

YES

NO

165

58

Will scientific journal publisher MDPI have a better reputation by 2027?

Sep 2, 9:44 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

33%chance

390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

156

127

Will Alex Bores run for Congress in 2028?

Jun 24, 2:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.09%chance

461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

145

69

Will Alex Damian become a tenured MIT prof by EOY2031?

Apr 18, 7:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.77%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

67

Will a captive coelecanth live in aquarium for more than 3 years by 2032

May 17, 2:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.98%chance

120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

Think Media! Not quite 3.5 Million YouTube followers. Will they reach 5 Million or more by end of 2028? (They teach.)

May 30, 1:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

Do you agree with the attached article's argument on job loss and AI?

Apr 7, 12:55 PM

320

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