Special News

Wang Yi Visit Spurs India-China Thaw, Beijing Vows Rare-Earth Supply

15 hours ago

Will a Democrat win the Ohio Senate special election?

Jul 23, 1:46 AMJun 1, 3:59 AM

37.42%chance

249552

OptionVotes

YES

1293

773

What party will win the special election to fill JD Vance's Senate seat?

Nov 7, 3:28 AMNov 4, 5:59 AM

287910

OptionProbability

Republican

Democratic

Other

When will Viva.city secure a special jurisdiction?

Jul 31, 2:44 AMJan 1, 3:43 AM

55011

OptionProbability

2028 or later

2026

2027

2025

What will be true of the Hollow Knight: Silksong Special Announcement?

Aug 19, 7:48 PMAug 21, 7:43 PM

52270

OptionProbability

Price revealed

Preorders open in at least one store (or shadowdrop) within 24 hours of announcement starting to air

Exact release day announced

Playable demo (for general public playing at home) announced

Silksong is shadowdropped (released within 24 hours of announcement starting to air)

Delay past 2025 announced

Will a Republican win the US Senate special election in Florida in 2026?

Nov 12, 8:18 PMNov 11, 1:29 PM

74.82%chance

61554

OptionVotes

YES

1724

580

Will a non specialized AI assistant master French grammar rule of "L'accord du participe passé" at the end of 2025 ?

Dec 10, 9:33 AMDec 31, 10:00 PM

63.34%chance

291498

OptionVotes

YES

1059

922

[Will Brown] Will Transformative AI look like an abundance of specialized models, in August 2026?

Aug 7, 7:30 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

48.8%chance

101072

OptionVotes

YES

1024

976

Will Texas enact new a congressional map during its second 2025 special session?

Aug 15, 4:23 PMSep 5, 10:59 PM

65.79%chance

8470

OptionVotes

YES

1387

721

Which organization will most likely build the AI that destroys humanity? (See special resolution method)

May 27, 4:45 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

7268

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Other

Will a special prosecutor be appointed by a federal court to prosecute a member of the Trump administration in 2025?

Apr 16, 10:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.41%chance

10261

OptionVotes

YES

293

Will there be a special guest at the Super Bowl halftime show? 🏈 Super Bowl LX

Feb 10, 9:03 PMFeb 9, 4:59 AM

82.88%chance

2120

OptionVotes

YES

220

Will ""The Solomonoff Prior is Malign" is a special..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Nov 25, 5:39 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.79%chance

OptionVotes

YES

102

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Will a Democrat win the Ohio Senate special election?

What party will win the special election to fill JD Vance's Senate seat?

When will Viva.city secure a special jurisdiction?

What will be true of the Hollow Knight: Silksong Special Announcement?

Will a Republican win the US Senate special election in Florida in 2026?

Will a non specialized AI assistant master French grammar rule of "L'accord du participe passé" at the end of 2025 ?

[Will Brown] Will Transformative AI look like an abundance of specialized models, in August 2026?

Will Texas enact new a congressional map during its second 2025 special session?

Which organization will most likely build the AI that destroys humanity? (See special resolution method)

Will a special prosecutor be appointed by a federal court to prosecute a member of the Trump administration in 2025?

Will there be a special guest at the Super Bowl halftime show? 🏈 Super Bowl LX

Will ""The Solomonoff Prior is Malign" is a special..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

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