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Prediction markets for Specs

In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)

Sep 16, 8:43 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

80.91%chance

11225182

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1618

741

Which specific games from other platforms will be announced for Nintendo Switch 2 before 2028?

May 25, 5:23 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

49978

OptionProbability

Red Dead Redemption 2

Assassin's Creed Mirage

Assassin's Creed Shadows

Crimson Desert

Call of Duty: Black Ops 7

Halo: The Master Chief Collection

Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024

Grand Theft Auto IV

Metal Gear Solid Delta: Snake Eater

Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege

Grand Theft Auto VI

Grand Theft Auto V

Tom Clancy's The Division

93

75

75

75

75

74

65

50

50

43

27

26

25

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

Dec 20, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.95%chance

728703

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2438

1224

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Feb 20, 10:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

33.67%chance

1388307

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2986

2139

By the end of 2025 will general AIs like GPT-4o make better music than specialist AIs like Udio did in spring of 2024?

May 16, 4:43 AMJan 8, 7:59 AM

19.57%chance

376585

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2041

285

Real-time whole human brain emulation runs before end of 2038 (not necessarily an 'upload' of a specific human).

Mar 2, 7:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26%chance

716029

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1471

1037

When will Viva.city secure a special jurisdiction?

Jul 31, 2:44 AMJan 1, 3:43 AM

55011

OptionProbability

2028 or later

2026

2027

2025

60

16

15

9

[Metaculus] Will the world remain "normal" through 2030, according to specified criteria?

Jul 8, 2:52 PMJan 2, 7:00 PM

37.76%chance

184515

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1284

779

Will a specific mid-level bureaucrat be fired under Trump?

Nov 8, 4:34 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

33.58%chance

193764

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1407

711

Will betting in or subsidizing specific prediction markets be an EA cause area by 2030?

Nov 15, 3:55 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

25%chance

312946

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3295

2155

Is the OpenAI model spec the upcoming definition for next major API release?

May 14, 8:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80%chance

2671

OptionVotes

NO

YES

200

50

Will Kevin Buzzard successfully fulfill his grant specs of formalizing Fermat's Last Theorem in Lean within 5 years?

Nov 2, 12:01 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

55.86%chance

5135

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1125

889

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