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Prediction markets for Speech

Will communists arrest me for speech violations within the next year?

Jul 29, 9:54 PMJul 29, 9:48 PM

23.15%chance

145162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1822

549

Will expressive negative opinions on people with AI partners be considered hate speech by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22%chance

773999

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

832

JD Vance will be the republican nominee for pres in 2028 and gives a major anti-AI speech at the convention

Apr 14, 6:51 PMAug 30, 10:59 PM

8.03%chance

172385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3385

295

Will any American citizen be extradited to the UK or elsewhere for free speech by 2040 end?

Aug 10, 8:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

35.45%chance

71416

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1349

741

Will Manifold take down any user content due to legal threats that violate free speech principles before 2030?

Mar 6, 2:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33.5%chance

71095

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1409

710

By 2028, AI can transcribe human speech with a variety of accents in a noisy environment as well as a typical human can

Jan 5, 10:55 AMJan 12, 8:29 AM

89.25%chance

131018

OptionVotes

NO

YES

455

147

If I remain living in Canada, will I be subject to any government sanction on speech before 2027?

Mar 27, 12:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5.01%chance

11699

OptionVotes

YES

NO

618

96

Will Trump ever give a more aggressive speech than this?

Sep 2, 7:35 AMJan 10, 5:59 AM

51.29%chance

14509

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1213

732

Nathan Cofnas wins his free speech case?

Sep 29, 8:58 PMJan 1, 9:53 PM

85.78%chance

4401

OptionVotes

NO

YES

246

41

before 2035, will anyone give a UN speech in toki pona?

May 18, 3:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.65%chance

4225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

325

31

Xi refers to people including their family size in his speeches, generally

Aug 20, 8:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

35.04%chance

689

OptionVotes

YES

NO

127

61

Who will be the first silent speech interface to market?

Jul 19, 10:11 AMDec 31, 11:10 AM

233

OptionProbability

Other

AlterEgo

EchoSpeech

Meta

Apple

28

23

23

14

12

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