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Prediction markets for Speech AI

Will expressive negative opinions on people with AI partners be considered hate speech by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.96%chance

743637

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1099

834

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

16.43%chance

233162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1875

705

Will Gavin Newsom be strongly anti-AI before March 2, 2028?

Dec 29, 9:03 PMMar 1, 11:59 PM

20.68%chance

122555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1958

511

JD Vance will be the republican nominee for pres in 2028 and gives a major anti-AI speech at the convention

Apr 14, 6:51 PMAug 30, 10:59 PM

9%chance

142180

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3180

314

Will AI be able to reach a human IRS representative before April 2026?

Feb 1, 4:35 PMApr 2, 6:59 AM

49.13%chance

101574

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1018

983

[OpenAI Startup Fund] Which ideas will OpenAI invest in as part of Converge Two?

Dec 16, 11:47 AMJun 30, 9:59 PM

271223

OptionProbability

AI Infrastructure Hardware (GPUs, TPUs, etc.)

SOTA Text-To-Speech

AI Powered Consumer Device (pins, glasses, speakers, etc.)

AI Language Coach (like Speek)

Non-English SOTA LLM

Legal AI (like Harvey)

AI Speech Coach

AI-Powered Kids Toy

94

81

78

66

54

36

33

31

By 2028, AI can transcribe human speech with a variety of accents in a noisy environment as well as a typical human can

Jan 5, 10:55 AMJan 12, 8:29 AM

89.25%chance

131018

OptionVotes

NO

YES

455

147

Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?

Jun 15, 1:27 PMMay 31, 4:00 AM

64.02%chance

20691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

775

If the Take It Down Act becomes law, will it be used against satirists or journalists?

Mar 17, 4:13 PMMay 21, 6:59 AM

50.46%chance

8375

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

991

Will an AI generated song win a Grammy before 2050?

Jun 7, 4:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.54%chance

6197

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10138

9921

Will Sir Keir Starmer say “bitter lesson” in relation to AI in a public speech before 2029?

Jan 13, 5:18 PMJan 21, 9:59 AM

17.59%chance

4116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

216

46

Will the leader of a nonwestern nuclear power make an extremely ASI-pilled public statement before 2031?

Jan 12, 8:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.61%chance

334

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1008

992

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