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Prediction markets for Speech AI

This is a solution to alignment.

Jul 26, 4:26 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.3%chance

4429186

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2045

489

Will expressive negative opinions on people with AI partners be considered hate speech by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.96%chance

743637

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1099

834

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

18.31%chance

213007

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1720

738

6. An AI system will pass the Turing test for speech.

Dec 27, 8:17 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

70.97%chance

142307

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1564

640

JD Vance will be the republican nominee for pres in 2028 and gives a major anti-AI speech at the convention

Apr 14, 6:51 PMAug 30, 10:59 PM

9%chance

142180

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3180

314

Will AI be able to reach a human IRS representative before April 2026?

Feb 1, 4:35 PMApr 2, 6:59 AM

75.64%chance

81124

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1762

568

By 2028, AI can transcribe human speech with a variety of accents in a noisy environment as well as a typical human can

Jan 5, 10:55 AMJan 12, 8:29 AM

89.25%chance

131018

OptionVotes

NO

YES

455

147

Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?

Jun 15, 1:27 PMMay 31, 4:00 AM

64.02%chance

20691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

775

If the Take It Down Act becomes law, will it be used against satirists or journalists?

Mar 17, 4:13 PMMay 21, 6:59 AM

53.04%chance

7325

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1063

941

Will Sir Keir Starmer say “bitter lesson” in relation to AI in a public speech before 2029?

Jan 13, 5:18 PMJan 21, 9:59 AM

17.59%chance

4116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

216

46

Which countries will mention AI in their 2025 UNGA debate speeches?

Jan 19, 4:59 PMOct 2, 3:59 AM

150

OptionProbability

United States

Canada

United Kingdom

China

Israel

France

Germany

Japan

India

Russia

South Korea

Italy

Saudi Arabia

Holy See

Australia

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

31

Will an AI generated song win a Grammy before 2050?

Jun 7, 4:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.9%chance

321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10021

9979

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