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Prediction markets for Speech AI

Will expressive negative opinions on people with AI partners be considered hate speech by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22%chance

773999

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

832

Will Gavin Newsom be strongly anti-AI before March 2, 2028?

Dec 29, 9:03 PMMar 1, 11:59 PM

44.48%chance

143602

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1117

895

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

12.77%chance

233562

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2275

637

Will the leader of a nonwestern nuclear power make an extremely ASI-pilled public statement before 2031?

Jan 12, 8:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

83.15%chance

213277

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2222

450

JD Vance will be the republican nominee for pres in 2028 and gives a major anti-AI speech at the convention

Apr 14, 6:51 PMAug 30, 10:59 PM

8.03%chance

172385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3385

295

By 2028, AI can transcribe human speech with a variety of accents in a noisy environment as well as a typical human can

Jan 5, 10:55 AMJan 12, 8:29 AM

89.25%chance

131018

OptionVotes

NO

YES

455

147

Will ASI be achieved less than a year after continual learning?

May 28, 11:55 PMApr 8, 10:59 PM

29.94%chance

15762

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1530

654

If the Take It Down Act becomes law, will it be used against satirists or journalists?

Mar 17, 4:13 PMMay 21, 6:59 AM

37%chance

9694

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1305

766

Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?

Jun 15, 1:27 PMMay 31, 4:00 AM

64.02%chance

20691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

775

Will an AI generated song win a Grammy before 2050?

Jun 7, 4:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.52%chance

7401

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10134

9925

Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text Nick Bostrom before 2028?

May 16, 7:17 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

11.18%chance

7288

OptionVotes

YES

NO

282

35

Will Sir Keir Starmer say “bitter lesson” in relation to AI in a public speech before 2029?

Jan 13, 5:18 PMJan 21, 9:59 AM

12.34%chance

5166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

266

38

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