Speech or Debate Clause News
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Prediction markets for Speech or Debate Clause
Will communists arrest me for speech violations within the next year?
Jul 29, 9:54 PMJul 29, 9:48 PM
21.09%chance
145194
OptionVotes
1934
517
Will expressive negative opinions on people with AI partners be considered hate speech by 2030?
Dec 21, 8:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
22%chance
773999
OptionVotes
1100
832
JD Vance will be the republican nominee for pres in 2028 and gives a major anti-AI speech at the convention
Apr 14, 6:51 PMAug 30, 10:59 PM
8.03%chance
172385
OptionVotes
3385
295
Will any American citizen be extradited to the UK or elsewhere for free speech by 2040 end?
Aug 10, 8:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
35.45%chance
71416
OptionVotes
1349
741
Will Manifold take down any user content due to legal threats that violate free speech principles before 2030?
Mar 6, 2:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
33.5%chance
71095
OptionVotes
1409
710
By 2028, AI can transcribe human speech with a variety of accents in a noisy environment as well as a typical human can
Jan 5, 10:55 AMJan 12, 8:29 AM
89.25%chance
131018
OptionVotes
455
147
OptionVotes
177
57
Will Trump ever give a more aggressive speech than this?
Sep 2, 7:35 AMJan 10, 5:59 AM
51.29%chance
14509
OptionVotes
1213
732
Will Sir Keir Starmer say “bitter lesson” in relation to AI in a public speech before 2029?
Jan 13, 5:18 PMJan 21, 9:59 AM
12.34%chance
5166
OptionVotes
266
38
Xi refers to people including their family size in his speeches, generally
Aug 20, 8:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
35.04%chance
689
OptionVotes
127
61
How many years until a fighter gets kicked out of the UFC for politically incorrect speech?
Jan 22, 10:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
24.4%chance
238
OptionVotes
108
48
OptionVotes
100
100