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Top stories

Trump Threatens Lawsuit to Overturn Senate Blue Slip Tradition

Trump Threatens Lawsuit to Overturn Senate Blue Slip Tradition

Authors

12

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Speech or Debate Clause

Will communists arrest me for speech violations within the next year?

Jul 29, 9:54 PMJul 29, 9:48 PM

21.09%chance

145194

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1934

517

Will expressive negative opinions on people with AI partners be considered hate speech by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22%chance

773999

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

832

JD Vance will be the republican nominee for pres in 2028 and gives a major anti-AI speech at the convention

Apr 14, 6:51 PMAug 30, 10:59 PM

8.03%chance

172385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3385

295

Will any American citizen be extradited to the UK or elsewhere for free speech by 2040 end?

Aug 10, 8:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

35.45%chance

71416

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1349

741

Will Manifold take down any user content due to legal threats that violate free speech principles before 2030?

Mar 6, 2:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33.5%chance

71095

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1409

710

By 2028, AI can transcribe human speech with a variety of accents in a noisy environment as well as a typical human can

Jan 5, 10:55 AMJan 12, 8:29 AM

89.25%chance

131018

OptionVotes

NO

YES

455

147

Will Trump ever give a more aggressive speech than this?

Sep 2, 7:35 AMJan 10, 5:59 AM

50%chance

16611

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1189

756

Will Sir Keir Starmer say “bitter lesson” in relation to AI in a public speech before 2029?

Jan 13, 5:18 PMJan 21, 9:59 AM

12.34%chance

5166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

266

38

Xi refers to people including their family size in his speeches, generally

Aug 20, 8:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

35.04%chance

689

OptionVotes

YES

NO

127

61

How many years until a fighter gets kicked out of the UFC for politically incorrect speech?

Jan 22, 10:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

24.4%chance

238

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108

48

Will I think individual freedom of speech is lower on election day, 2028?

Nov 7, 12:13 AMNov 6, 11:59 PM

49.16%chance

117

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1017

983

Will MS Now show Trumps full 2026 RNC convention speech?

Sep 7, 6:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13%chance

117

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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