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Prediction markets for Speedrun

When will an AI be able to speedrun a popular video game faster than the human WR?

May 27, 5:02 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

1112701

OptionProbability

2026

2030 or later

2027

2028

2029

2025

2024

21

21

18

14

14

12

1

CTM Speedrunning Stock (Permanent)

Apr 7, 10:04 PMApr 8, 3:59 AM

78518

OptionProbability

NO

YES

116

81

Will the 1 hour 35 minute barrier be broken in the 120 Star category in Mario 64 speedrunning in 2025?

Jan 5, 4:32 PMJan 3, 1:29 PM

16.25%chance

137212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

227

44

Lowkey's Minecraft RSG speedrun WR broken in 2025?

Jun 11, 9:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8%chance

115451

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3391

295

Will Twitter beat Tumblr at "97% devaluation speedrun"

Oct 29, 6:23 AMOct 29, 3:59 AM

6.9%chance

485147

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2401

776

Will an AI system beat human performance in Trackmania Tool-Assisted Speedrunning by the end of 2025?

Dec 3, 11:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.44%chance

124856

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3188

689

How quickly will I speedrun Alto's adventure on my second attempt?

Nov 17, 10:09 PMMar 27, 4:59 AM

3756

OptionProbability

Under 10 hours

Under 9 hours

Under 8 hours

Under 7 hours

Under 6 hours

Under 5 hours

10 hours or more

World record

75

72

66

50

34

28

25

22

Will the 120 Star speedrun World Record for Super Mario 64 be less than 1h35m00s on Jan 1st 2028? (1h34mXXs)

Nov 1, 8:53 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

86.8%chance

8659

OptionVotes

NO

YES

256

39

Will Borussia Dortmund's womens football team complete their speedrun and make it to the 1. Bundesliga by 2027?

Apr 8, 8:28 AMJul 1, 9:59 PM

52.04%chance

4104

OptionVotes

YES

NO

143

135

Will the 120 Star speedrun World Record for Super Mario 64 be less than 1h34m00s on Jan 1st 2028? (1h33mXXs)

Nov 1, 8:53 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

42.22%chance

774

OptionVotes

YES

NO

117

85

Will the Pokemon Firered/leaftgreen Elite 4 Round 2 speedrun WR go below 3h 26m before 2028?

Aug 6, 9:07 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

52.15%chance

229

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

96

Will Dan Ghessling's UFO 50 gold run take over 50x longer than the combined best UFO-50 speedrun times

Oct 24, 3:40 AMMay 2, 4:59 AM

43.06%chance

325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

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