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Prediction markets for Spirit Awards

When will an AI-related event dominate the mainstream news cycle for at least three consecutive days?

Jan 21, 6:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

182632

OptionProbability

2027

2030 and after. . . or we're all dead before the news comes out.

2028

2026

2029

53

17

16

12

10

Will a Turing Award be given out for work on AI alignment or existential safety by 2040?

Feb 11, 1:32 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

79.16%chance

30534

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1257

904

Sanae Takaichi delivers Trophy at any Grand Sumo Tournament in 2026?

Jan 9, 2:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.42%chance

9489

OptionVotes

YES

NO

465

22

Potential questions for long bet on Robin Hanson Orthodox Jews thesis (500 mana / 100 per great question or comment)

Oct 16, 1:57 AM

00

What is the optimal set of three wishes from a genie?

Jan 10, 4:46 PM

00

Recommend me wordless music like the 3Blue1Brown soundtrack for productivity/creative work!

Aug 12, 9:34 PMAug 13, 6:59 AM

00

How do I disable Apple News notifications for sports and non-news without disabling notifications for actual news?

Jul 27, 3:35 AMJul 27, 6:59 AM

00

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