Spirit Awards News

Is Eric Berger right about how the Starliner saga will play out?

Aug 9, 9:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

229023

OptionProbability

Starliner returns uncrewed with minimal problems in the next month

Starliner-1 flies in 2026

NASA pays Boeing to fly Starliner with cargo in 2025

All of the above

100

When will an AI-related event dominate the mainstream news cycle for at least three consecutive days?

Jan 21, 6:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

111714

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2030 and after. . . or we're all dead before the news comes out.

2028

2029

Will a Turing Award be given out for work on AI alignment or existential safety by 2040?

Feb 11, 1:32 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

78.98%chance

29524

OptionVotes

YES

1247

907

Sanae Takaichi delivers Trophy at any Grand Sumo Tournament in 2026?

Jan 9, 2:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.97%chance

7303

OptionVotes

YES

301

Spirit Awards: Best Director

Jan 23, 12:38 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

4144

OptionProbability

Ira Sachs - Peter Hujar’s Day

Clint Bentley - Train Dreams

Mary Bronstein - If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Lloyd Lee Choi - Lucky Lu

Eva Victor - Sorry, Baby

Spirit Awards: Best Feature

Jan 23, 12:25 AMFeb 15, 11:59 PM

495

OptionProbability

Peter Hujar's Day

Sorry, Baby

Train Dreams

The Plague

Twinless

Spirit Awards: Best Documentary

Jan 23, 12:39 AMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

360

OptionProbability

The Perfect Neighbor

Come See Me in the Good Light

Endless Cookie

My Undesirable Friends: Part I - Last Air in Moscow

The Tale of Silyan

What is the optimal set of three wishes from a genie?

Jan 10, 4:46 PM

How do I disable Apple News notifications for sports and non-news without disabling notifications for actual news?

Jul 27, 3:35 AMJul 27, 6:59 AM

Potential questions for long bet on Robin Hanson Orthodox Jews thesis (500 mana / 100 per great question or comment)

Oct 16, 1:57 AM

Recommend me wordless music like the 3Blue1Brown soundtrack for productivity/creative work!

Aug 12, 9:34 PMAug 13, 6:59 AM

Spirit Awards News

Prediction markets for Spirit Awards

Prediction markets for Spirit Awards

Prediction markets for Spirit Awards

Is Eric Berger right about how the Starliner saga will play out?

When will an AI-related event dominate the mainstream news cycle for at least three consecutive days?

Will a Turing Award be given out for work on AI alignment or existential safety by 2040?

Sanae Takaichi delivers Trophy at any Grand Sumo Tournament in 2026?

Spirit Awards: Best Director

Spirit Awards: Best Feature

Spirit Awards: Best Documentary

What is the optimal set of three wishes from a genie?

How do I disable Apple News notifications for sports and non-news without disabling notifications for actual news?

Potential questions for long bet on Robin Hanson Orthodox Jews thesis (500 mana / 100 per great question or comment)

Recommend me wordless music like the 3Blue1Brown soundtrack for productivity/creative work!

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