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Prediction markets for Spirited Away

Will Tesla offer autonomous vehicle delivery to customers' homes in 2025?

Apr 15, 10:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30%chance

7915710

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1528

655

Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI babysitters hold up by Feb 2028?

Feb 21, 6:53 PMFeb 22, 5:59 AM

46.63%chance

10412863

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1271

1003

Is Eric Berger right about how the Starliner saga will play out?

Aug 9, 9:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

227393

OptionProbability

Starliner returns uncrewed with minimal problems in the next month

Starliner-1 flies in 2026

NASA pays Boeing to fly Starliner with cargo in 2025

All of the above

100

36

2

2

Will a Jony Ive and Sam Altman collaboration lead to a hardware device intended for consumer use, released before 2030.

Sep 28, 1:58 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

86.58%chance

275033

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2328

593

Top 5 films of the 21st century, according to "The Big Picture"?

May 18, 9:52 PMDec 31, 10:42 PM

133792

OptionProbability

The Social Network

There Will Be Blood

Inglourious Basterds

Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood

Pan's Labyrinth

Mad Max: Fury Road

In the Mood for Love

Lost in Translation

Parasite

Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

Synecdoche, New York

No Country for Old Men

Spirited Away

Inside Llewyn Davis

80

68

43

40

35

28

28

27

27

23

20

3

2

1

Will Portland have fully self-driving taxis by the end of 2025?

Dec 16, 12:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.85%chance

453123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3073

571

If polled in 2025, will the majority of Manifold users say this site has become their primary social media platform?

Oct 10, 6:07 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.93%chance

292222

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2391

700

Will 'The Boy and the Heron' be Hayao Miyazaki's final movie?

Nov 22, 4:32 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.28%chance

23989

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1069

966

🎞️If the AFI Top 100 Movie list updates again, which films that haven't been on it before will make it? [ADD RESPONSES]

Mar 4, 4:54 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10620

OptionProbability

Oppenheimer

Inception

Wolf of Wall Street

Whiplash

Spirited Away

Interstellar

Mad Max Fury Road

Arrival

Poor Things

Everything Everywhere All At Once

The Dark Knight

Killers of the Flower Moon

Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)

The Martian

Drive

Baby Driver

Paul Blart Mall Cop

Napoleon

Paul Blart Mall Cop 2

74

73

66

66

66

64

59

59

50

50

50

41

41

41

34

27

15

14

11

Will LLMs be worse than human level at forecasting when they are superhuman at most things?

Feb 22, 8:18 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

41.27%chance

14476

OptionVotes

YES

NO

972

964

Who will win the 2026 California gubernatorial election?

Sep 29, 5:26 PMNov 9, 7:59 AM

11358

OptionProbability

Other

Eleni Kounalakis

Betty Yee

Antonio Villaraigosa

Rob Bonta

54

21

12

8

5

Will DeepMind publish a Nature paper on seismology by 2029?

Feb 17, 6:59 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

63.68%chance

647

OptionVotes

NO

YES

292

213

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