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Prediction markets for Spirited Away

Top 5 films of the 21st century, according to "The Big Picture"?

May 18, 9:52 PMDec 31, 10:42 PM

4242798

OptionProbability

Inglourious Basterds

Lady Bird

25th Hour

The Social Network

There Will Be Blood

One Battle After Another

Memento

Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood

Mad Max: Fury Road

Lost in Translation

Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

Parasite

Spirited Away

In the Mood for Love

No Country for Old Men

Inside Llewyn Davis

Synecdoche, New York

Pan's Labyrinth

Interstellar

Mulholland Drive

Moonlight

The Tree of Life

12 Years a Slave

Frances Ha

Ocean's Eleven

whiplash

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Florida Project

Children of Men

$456,000 Squid Game in Real Life!

Drive

Old Boy

100

100

95

92

81

19

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will Tesla offer autonomous vehicle delivery to customers' homes in 2025?

Apr 15, 10:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.25%chance

9027636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6587

152

Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI babysitters hold up by Feb 2028?

Feb 21, 6:53 PMFeb 22, 5:59 AM

41.2%chance

10613529

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1412

893

Is Eric Berger right about how the Starliner saga will play out?

Aug 9, 9:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

228973

OptionProbability

Starliner returns uncrewed with minimal problems in the next month

Starliner-1 flies in 2026

NASA pays Boeing to fly Starliner with cargo in 2025

All of the above

100

18

0

0

Will a Jony Ive and Sam Altman collaboration lead to a hardware device intended for consumer use, released before 2030.

Sep 28, 1:58 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

86.58%chance

275033

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2328

593

Will Portland have fully self-driving taxis by the end of 2025?

Dec 16, 12:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.23%chance

494188

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4138

498

If polled in 2025, will the majority of Manifold users say this site has become their primary social media platform?

Oct 10, 6:07 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.23%chance

313475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3678

606

Who will win the 2026 California gubernatorial election?

Sep 29, 5:26 PMNov 9, 7:59 AM

222500

OptionProbability

Other

Eric Swalwell

Tom Steyer

Xavier Becerra

Katie Porter

Rick Caruso

Antonio Villaraigosa

Betty Yee

Alex Padilla

Steve Hilton

Chad Bianco

Eleni Kounalakis

Rob Bonta

32

21

16

7

6

6

3

2

2

2

2

1

1

Will 'The Boy and the Heron' be Hayao Miyazaki's final movie?

Nov 22, 4:32 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.28%chance

23989

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1069

966

🎞️If the AFI Top 100 Movie list updates again, which films that haven't been on it before will make it? [ADD RESPONSES]

Mar 4, 4:54 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10620

OptionProbability

Oppenheimer

Inception

Wolf of Wall Street

Whiplash

Spirited Away

Interstellar

Mad Max Fury Road

Arrival

Poor Things

Everything Everywhere All At Once

The Dark Knight

Killers of the Flower Moon

Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)

The Martian

Drive

Baby Driver

Paul Blart Mall Cop

Napoleon

Paul Blart Mall Cop 2

74

73

66

66

66

64

59

59

50

50

50

41

41

41

34

27

15

14

11

Will LLMs be worse than human level at forecasting when they are superhuman at most things?

Feb 22, 8:18 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

41.27%chance

14476

OptionVotes

YES

NO

972

964

Will DeepMind publish a Nature paper on seismology by 2029?

Feb 17, 6:59 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

63.68%chance

647

OptionVotes

NO

YES

292

213

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