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Prediction markets for Spirited Away

Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI babysitters hold up by Feb 2028?

Feb 21, 6:53 PMFeb 22, 5:59 AM

24.52%chance

11215100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2033

597

Is Eric Berger right about how the Starliner saga will play out?

Aug 9, 9:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

229023

OptionProbability

Starliner returns uncrewed with minimal problems in the next month

Starliner-1 flies in 2026

NASA pays Boeing to fly Starliner with cargo in 2025

All of the above

100

15

0

0

Will a Jony Ive and Sam Altman collaboration lead to a hardware device intended for consumer use, released before 2030.

Sep 28, 1:58 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

86.58%chance

275033

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2328

593

Who will win the 2026 California gubernatorial election?

Sep 29, 5:26 PMNov 9, 7:59 AM

232719

OptionProbability

Eric Swalwell

Matt Mahan

Other

Tom Steyer

Katie Porter

Rob Bonta

Rick Caruso

Xavier Becerra

Chad Bianco

Eleni Kounalakis

Betty Yee

Antonio Villaraigosa

Alex Padilla

Steve Hilton

43

21

12

7

3

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

Will 'The Boy and the Heron' be Hayao Miyazaki's final movie?

Nov 22, 4:32 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.28%chance

23989

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1069

966

🎞️If the AFI Top 100 Movie list updates again, which films that haven't been on it before will make it? [ADD RESPONSES]

Mar 4, 4:54 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10620

OptionProbability

Oppenheimer

Inception

Wolf of Wall Street

Whiplash

Spirited Away

Interstellar

Mad Max Fury Road

Arrival

Poor Things

Everything Everywhere All At Once

The Dark Knight

Killers of the Flower Moon

Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)

The Martian

Drive

Baby Driver

Paul Blart Mall Cop

Napoleon

Paul Blart Mall Cop 2

74

73

66

66

66

64

59

59

50

50

50

41

41

41

34

27

15

14

11

Will LLMs be worse than human level at forecasting when they are superhuman at most things?

Feb 22, 8:18 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

41.27%chance

14476

OptionVotes

YES

NO

972

964

Sanae Takaichi delivers Trophy at any Grand Sumo Tournament in 2026?

Jan 9, 2:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.97%chance

7303

OptionVotes

YES

NO

301

33

Will DeepMind publish a Nature paper on seismology by 2029?

Feb 17, 6:59 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

63.68%chance

647

OptionVotes

NO

YES

292

213

Recommend me a movie that I will enjoy

Mar 4, 1:09 AM

00

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