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Prediction markets for SPL

The UK Tory party will split into 2 parties or otherwise internally fall apart before 2026

Aug 30, 12:26 PMJan 6, 11:59 PM

2.95%chance

335651

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3444

831

Successful Starship splashdowns before orbital launch attempt?

Sep 3, 2:11 AMJul 1, 11:28 AM

113117

OptionProbability

6

8

7

Other

5

4

48

18

15

15

3

1

Will any FAANG company be split up due to antitrust action before 2029?

Jan 23, 6:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.74%chance

392695

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1511

704

Instagram will split from Meta by 2028

Apr 18, 3:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11%chance

152596

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2845

352

Will AI usage in 2030 be split in tiers where the best and most expensive models are used rarely compared to cheaper and lower-quality models?

Dec 23, 9:10 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

91%chance

231906

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2000

824

The EA community will have a major split/conflict between progressive and rationalist EAs before 2030.

Aug 17, 12:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.62%chance

281791

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1094

916

Will Wizards of the Coast be sold or split off from Hasbro by 2030?

Jan 17, 3:15 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.54%chance

241517

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1570

663

Will regulators force a split in Alphabet before 2030?

Jul 19, 4:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.18%chance

281393

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1147

928

Will WOTC release a vintage-legal Magic card that has an activated ability with split second before 2028?

Jan 6, 3:33 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

9.1%chance

281299

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1713

831

Will there be a Wikipedia article about a "Euro-American split" by the end of 2028

Mar 6, 12:15 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

40.31%chance

101108

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3585

2721

Will Texas legalize split-rate property tax (and thus Land Value Tax) within 5 years?

Nov 6, 4:09 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

31.27%chance

191063

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1966

870

Will the energy biding zones for either Germany or France be split by 2030?

Feb 15, 7:29 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50%chance

1750

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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