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Prediction markets for Spotlight

Hillary and Bill Clinton divorce announcement before EOY 2026?

Dec 20, 7:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2%chance

256478

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1795

75

Will a new social media app surpass TikTok in monthly users before 2027?”

Mar 21, 8:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.4%chance

104465

OptionVotes

YES

NO

466

21

Will China experience a military coup before 2028?

Oct 28, 9:10 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

6.52%chance

244386

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3787

264

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.58%chance

233790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1073

935

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.58%chance

193559

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2640

380

Will we see an open source LLM model better than Opus 4.5 before the end of 2026?

Jan 2, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

85.24%chance

142281

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2403

416

When will Bitcoin cross $100k again?

Mar 12, 7:44 PMFeb 2, 4:59 AM

7644

OptionProbability

Before January 2027

Before October 2026

Before July 2026

Before June 2026

Before May 2026

Before April 2026

41

30

17

11

4

1

Venus will be successfully terraformed before Mars?

Jun 7, 4:32 AMJun 14, 5:59 AM

6.64%chance

14501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

375

27

Will Brazil grant marketing approval to polylaminin before 2028?

Sep 11, 2:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.35%chance

5365

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1241

805

Will there be a new TRIUMPH OF THE WILL -like film centered on MAGA/Trump by EOY2028?

Jan 20, 9:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.87%chance

332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

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