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Prediction markets for Stability AI

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran’s supreme leader on 1 January 2027?

Mar 11, 3:15 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

59.15%chance

286282

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1203

831

Will the class-action lawsuit by artists against several AI art generators be successful?

Jan 17, 4:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.76%chance

725643

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6181

6090

Will Sarah Anderson et al prove Stability AI, Midjourney, and DeviantArt violated copyright laws in claim 1?

Jan 14, 10:50 PMJan 15, 4:59 AM

14.4%chance

504152

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1057

959

What will be the top-3 AI labs in 2030?

Dec 19, 10:25 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

441805

OptionProbability

Anthropic

DeepMind

Other

OpenAI

Safe Superintelligence Inc

Meta

Google

xAI

Alibaba

None (No AI labs exist)

US Government

Thinking Machines

Stability AI

Tesla

Keen

CommaAI

Conjecture

Baidu

Amazon

Apple

Microsoft

Comma

NVIDIA

Midjourney

DeepSeek

High-Flyer

29

24

18

13

4

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Stability AI fold by 2028?

Mar 23, 2:17 PMJan 16, 10:59 PM

82.94%chance

15860

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1133

939

Where will the "AI revolution" first take place?

Nov 6, 9:55 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26815

OptionProbability

United States

China

Other

United Kingdom

Singapore

India

European Union

Switzerland

Canada

South Korea

Japan

Israel

Australia

Russia

38

21

10

7

6

5

3

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Dec 28, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.78%chance

6671

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1221

822

Will Emad Mostaque (founder of Stability AI) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Jun 8, 2:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.09%chance

4117

OptionVotes

YES

NO

162

57

Will MBG get defunded before 2027?

Mar 12, 5:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.86%chance

380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

161

62

Global media opinion of Obama will improve from EOY 2023 to mid year 2027, according to OpenAI's best LLM

Dec 18, 9:57 PMJul 1, 5:59 AM

66.12%chance

435

OptionVotes

NO

YES

70

36

USD/NIS less than 2.9 until July

Apr 15, 3:27 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

54.84%chance

224

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

When will Senegal lower their debt to GDP ratio below 100%?

Apr 21, 4:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

May-Aug 2026

Sep-Dec 2026

Jan-Apr 2027

May-Aug 2027

Sep-Dec 2027

20

20

20

20

20

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