Stadium News

Lionel Messi to score at least one goal

Someone scores 5+ goals within group stage

USA survives group stage

2+ red cards in any match

Any player scores at least a goal 3 matches in a row

Goal from last kick of the game

Cristiano Ronaldo to score a goal

Mexico survives group stage

Canada survives group stage

3+ red cards in any match

6+ yellow cards in any match

Red card issued for mouth covering

Team with 0 wins in Group Stage

Black player gets the red card

Bicycle kick attempt

Team scores after being down to 10 men

Both teams score in stoppage time

Player scores against country of birth/heritage

Player bleeding on camera during match

Team loses possession from delay throw-in

Player scores a hat-trick

Over 9.5 own goals scored

Over 7.5 goals scored in a single group stage match

Play suspended for more than 1.5 hours in a single match

Teenager scores a goal (non penalty shoot-out)

Team finishes match with 9 players

French-born player scores against France

Team makes it to Round of 32 with no goals conceded

Goal scored directly from a free-kick

A coach is sacked before the end of the tournament

Team ends Group Stage with a clean sheet

Player not born in the country they are playing for scores 2+ goals

“Puto” chant at match

Referee falls down

Any host places 1st in their group

Curaçao scores a goal

Haaland scores over 3.5 goals

Neymar plays in a match

Vuvuzela spotted in the stadium stands

At least two Mohammeds (all variants) score ≥1 goal

gruesome leg/ankle/arm injury

Will either Bosnia and Herzegovina or Qatar advance to the next round?

Will Cristiano Ronaldo Score Atleast A Goal In Next Match Against Uzbekistan

Foam spray is used on field to mark penalty / free kick

Cape Verde scores a goal

Will any more team(s) from Europe finish 4th in the group?

Total goals in the tournament to exceed 200

3+ penalty shootout

Player is complaining about the Trionda ball / blames it for the losing

The Golden Boot winner to score 6+ goals

Trump still alive at end of final match

Messi is top Argentinian goal-scorer

Fan hospitalized for heat related illness

20+ penalty goals

Over 10.5 red cards

Kylian Mbappe & Harry Kane to Score 9+ Goals Combined

Trump attends match

Ronaldo to cry at the world cup

Players cleat falls off their foot

Messi scores a goal at 39 years old

Will any group finish with either all draws or zero draws?

Penalty shootout goes 6+ rounds

A penalty shootout contains a missed winning kick (Matchball)

US scores in every single group stage match

5+ group stage winners advance with 9 points (3 wins)

Team is undefeated for the entire tournament (only wins & draws)

VAR to overturn at least 20 decisions

Bottle thrown on field

Champion is a first place group stage winner

South American team reaches semi-final

Champion is unbeaten

Single top goalscorer in tournament (not tied)

2+ European countries reach top 4

Asian player misses penalty kick

Ronaldo gets in referee face

Any host nation in quarter final

Pride flag at Egypt v Iran match

Penalty shootout to decide a quarter-final match

Another match day ending in all draws (regular time)

Unauthorized person gets on the pitch during match

No red cards issued in the Final match

The ballon d’or is awarded to a player from World Cup winner

Asian player gets the red card

Golden Boot Winner wears Nike branded cleats

Golden Glove Winner wears Senda, Rinat, RG, Voit or Adidas brand glove

A fully southern hemisphere team (Australia, NZ, South Africa, Uruguay or Argentina) makes semi finals.

Both teams in final have red on their flag

Visible debris thrown during corner kick attempt

Over 14.5 own goals scored

More own goals than red cards in tourney

Team loses after leading 2-0

US goes further than Mexico

Messi gets a yellow card

The Golden Ball is awarded to a player from tournament winner

Trump kicks or holds a soccer ball at any time during tournament

Over 289.5 total goals scored*

Flipping Coinflips – Do teams shooting first win more penalty shootouts?

Coaches of both teams in final match are wearing suits

Austria Pays Its Debt to Algeria? (Austria loses or draws with Algeria AND both teams qualify. Inspired by the 1982 “Disgrace of Gijón”)

Over 6.5 matches ending 0-0 (regular time only)

Over 202.5 goals scored in group stage

Players from any other league outscore PL players in the tournament

Messi to score a free kick

Someone escorted off field shirtless

Canada goes further than US

USA to reach the Quarter-finals or further

Any one of Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappe, or Erling Haaland to score a hattrick

Elon Musk attends match

Total goals in the tournament to exceed 300

Penalty shootout to decide semi-final match

Penalty shootout goes 7+ rounds

Player with the heat stroke / heat related illness

A player or their teams gets sanctioned by FIFA (i. e. a fine, an overturned result, a suspension) for a goal celebration with a political or politics-adjacent message

Player tears their ACL

Messi and Ronaldo play in the same match

Final is a rematch of a previous World Cup

2 UEFA teams in final

Trump acts innapropriate with trophy at final

Betting scandal reported

Spain goes further than France

Last penalty shoot-out kick of tournament is missed/saved

Unofficial drone is reported flying over a stadium

Laser pointer on goalie during match

Crowd jump registers on local seismic sensor

Goal scored within 1st minute

Freddy attends the final match

VAR overturns second yellow card

15+ minutes of the stoppage time

Flares in stands during match in USA

Hooligans light the fireworks at night by team hotel for disruption

The Golden Boot winner to score 8+ goals

30+ penalty goals

USA player gets the red card

6+ teams with negative goal difference advance from the group stage

5+ hat tricks

Messi scores more goals than Mbappe

Disruption at Iran match

Team particpates in 3+ penalty shoot-outs

World Cup winner to never trail in a match

3 or more coaches resign or are fired before end of World Cup

Team captain gets red card

Team reaches the quarter-finals through draws and penalties

Youngest player of the tournament scores a goal

World Champion's goals > total goals of all teams out in group stage

Palestinian or Israeli flag on field during match

Winning team has a foreign manager

Weather postponement or delay for greater than 3 hours

Bald person gets the red card

Over 30.5 penalties scored (excludes shoot-outs)

Match has a dedicated moment of silence

Player blames an injury on poor stadium grass

Messi scores on every game he plays

Taylor Swift & Travis Kelce attend match

Over 395.5 yellow cards

First penalty shootout kick of tournament is missed/saved

Both players in this photo* play each other in a match

Record for hottest WC match ever played broken (>101°)

A penalty shootout to decide the Final match

Final features a team that has never made it to the final before

Another match with 3+ red cards

Play suspended for more than 2.5 hours in a single match

Salt Bae attending a match

Freddy shown during a match broadcast

Champion is a first time World Cup winner

Goalkeeper attempts shot in PKs

Smoke bomb during match in USA

Golden boot & golden ball won by the same player

The Golden Boot winner is decided by # assists

Player gets spat on during match

25+ people arrested at stadium

Any two brothers play against each other (Both must be on the pitch at the same time)

Haaland scores on every game he plays

Game is turned around in stoppage team (one team leads at 90:00, the other team scores twice or more in stoppage time to win it)

Team makes it to Round of 16 with zero yellow cards

Any match is canceled or postponed

Team USA fans pull off a decent Tifo

England loses on penalties

Animal (not birdy) is on field during match

King Charles attends match

Will Merlin the duck correctly predict both remaining MEX group stage matches?

ICE makes a capture at the stadium

Over 8.5 penalties missed (excludes shoot-outs)

Goal scored from own half

Any player injured in opening group match & out for rest of tournament

Player throws captains armband

Headbutt during match

Player wearing a face mask in semi-final match

Will any player be seen drinking gatorade during a hydration break?

Knockout Stage (incl 3rd/4th) to match or exceed Group-Stage scoring average

An African nation to reach the Semi-finals

Coach on camera during match smelling finger(s)

All 48 teams score at least 1 goal

Scorigami (a match ends in a score that has never happened at a World Cup; for the purpose of this answer refers only to result before extra time / shootout)

Fans invade field during match

Ronaldo does not start

Voodoo doll or alive chicken in stands

Player walks off pitch protesting referee

Will both brothers of any pair score at this World Cup?

Major security incident

15+ cards in any match

Asia team reaches semi final

Trump attends 3 or more games

Pulisic top Team USA goal scorer

Player wearing oxygen mask on sideline

Bonnie Blue attending a match

Erling Haaland to win the Golden Boot

Over 1.5 of the visible penis in world cup tourney (during match, on pitch)

Olimpico goal (goal scored directly from corner kick, counts if corner taker is credited as the goalscorer by FIFA)

Team wins a match without making a single substitution

Match is forfeited

Trump dancing at match

The fastest goal of the tournament is scored within 30 seconds

10+ goals in any match

Player bit during match

Football is coming home?

Goalkeeper scores a non-penalty goal

Any country ranked outside FIFA Top 10 to reach semifinals (as of 6/11)

An over-enthusiastic goal celebration results in a shattered corner flag

Team gets removed or disqualified

Player arrested / detained at any time of tournament

USA plays Iran

Any team with <3 points advances from the group stage

Someone from Trump administration celebrating in locker room

The Netherlands does not survive group stage

Mohamed Salah (Egypt) scores 5+ goals during Group Stage Fixtures (Round of 64)

German Freddy is uncovered to be the marketing stunt

Team finishes third in group and makes it to final

Shooting incident (non-ball) at stadium

Players / members of team attempt to defect

Total goals in the tournament to exceed 400

Match delayed due to homophobic crowd chant

Player suffers cardiac arrest

Omar Artan is at a World Cup match

Confirmed case of Ebola at the match

Oldest player in tournament gets a yellow card

Team gets to final on all penalty shoot-outs in knockout rounds

Ronaldo does jerkin move

A group-stage match is decided by a freak "Olympico" goal scored directly from a corner

Player shits in the pants during match

A third-placed team is eliminated with 4+ points

Match delayed due to anti-Trump crowd chant

Fastest goal record beaten (11 seconds)

All teams concede at least 1 goal in group stage

Player drinking Liquid Death at hydration break

Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei attending a match

Player dies during World Cup

All 3 host countries win the opener

Ronaldo scores before Messi

4+ Corners in Every Group Stage Match

Mana-purchasable profile flair

Optional paid subscription plan(s) for users

You earn mana if you add liquidity to someone else’s market (trader bonus, fees etc)

Manifest happens and >600 attendees

New type(s) of user badge

@acc is active

Anybody stays in Masters all 12 months

New market type

Subsidizers get bonuses or fees from trader activity (or a cut of such from creator's share)

Spoiler resolutions feature added

manifold.markets/home changes to something other than Browse

New leagues division

Merch shop sends tracking information to your email

Topics properly nest and show child topic markets

Automatic house-provided subsidies

Mentioned in NYT

$10k+ mana sales in one day

Active traders (daily 7d avg) >2000 at any point

Mana Merch Shop sells Ṁ10M+

Someone loses Ṁ1M in a single market

manifold UI-based auto-resolutions options added

Top-10 user on profit/creator/referral leaderboard permabanned

Raises $10M+ in external funding

Partner-esque program (re)launches

A mod permabanned

New currency

3+ ManifestXs

A previously banned user becomes a mod

A founder returns

Manifold ad visible on TV in a stadium

ReReRePivot (a new method for real money launches)

Site completely offline for continuous 24h+

House-mediated p2p loans

Acquired by another prediction market company

Charity program returns and $100k+ donated

Manifold becomes a logistics company

YES

Wins a preseason game

Drafts at least one QB in the NFL Draft

Jayden Daniels starts at least 16 games

The team moves or is renamed before 2050

Announces a move to RFK Stadium in Washington DC before 2026

Top EPA/play offensive team by the end of the regular season

YES

YES

Northern Indiana

Arlington, Illinois

Chicago lakefront

YES

YES

NO

NO

YES