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Prediction markets for Stage

Will China successfully launch an orbital rocket with reused first stage by the end of 2030?

Aug 6, 10:52 PMDec 31, 4:01 PM

95.07%chance

194158

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4227

553

FIFA World Cup: Highest ranked team to not make it to the knockout stage

Jun 23, 12:18 PMJun 27, 11:59 PM

73133

OptionProbability

Uruguay

Belgium

Croatia

England

Portugal

Netherlands

Spain

Colombia

Mexico

USA

Morocco

Japan

Switzerland

Brazil

France

Argentina

Germany

63

6

4

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

Which nations will the US stage military operations in before January 20th 2029?

Jan 5, 4:17 AMJan 19, 11:59 PM

152759

OptionProbability

Iran

Other

Cuba

Other Again

Mexico

Venezuela

Panama

North Korea

Iceland

Colombia

Denmark

Canada

100

100

63

55

53

52

43

27

18

15

14

5

What will be the highest scoring draw in the FIFA World Cup group stage?

Jun 6, 8:34 AMJun 27, 11:59 PM

242057

OptionProbability

2-2

3-3

4-4

0-0

1-1

5-5

Other

82

13

2

1

1

1

1

Will an astronaut's life be lost during any stage of spaceflight before 2030?

Jan 31, 4:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38.23%chance

281788

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

980

Will Starship’s upper stage be caught successfully on SpaceX’s first attempt?

Feb 11, 3:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42%chance

201754

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1175

851

Will the 2026 Fifa World Cup winner, draw or lose in the group stage?

May 17, 3:25 AMJul 19, 11:59 PM

57.81%chance

141475

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1334

649

Conditional on humanity reaching Kardashev stage 2, what will be the primary source of energy when it does?

Nov 9, 6:53 AMDec 16, 7:59 AM

6968

OptionProbability

Dyson swarm

Other

Dyson sphere

Hawking radiation from microsingularities

81

12

3

3

Was the Wagner Group’s rebellion in June 2023 a strategic ruse staged by Russian leadership?

Jun 26, 4:36 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

7.9%chance

19967

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1525

902

Hassabis's Isomorphic Labs will get a drug to FDA stage 3 or better by mid 2031

Jan 23, 6:16 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

44%chance

9898

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1128

886

Will China successfully propulsively land a rocket first stage before 2027?

Apr 19, 12:17 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

83.17%chance

11523

OptionVotes

NO

YES

384

112

Will any World Cup team win multiple games in the knockout stage via penalty shootouts?

Jun 23, 1:34 AMJul 19, 11:59 PM

60.28%chance

10468

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1138

740

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