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Prediction markets for Stage

Will China successfully launch an orbital rocket with reused first stage by the end of 2030?

Aug 6, 10:52 PMDec 31, 4:01 PM

95.07%chance

194158

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4227

553

By when will the Exploration Upper Stage launch?

Aug 10, 10:32 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

42700

OptionProbability

2030-12-31

2028-12-31

2028-09-30

26

8

6

Will Starship’s upper stage be caught successfully on SpaceX’s first attempt?

Feb 11, 3:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.63%chance

322634

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1413

708

Will an astronaut's life be lost during any stage of spaceflight before 2030?

Jan 31, 4:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38.23%chance

281788

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

980

Conditional on humanity reaching Kardashev stage 2, what will be the primary source of energy when it does?

Nov 9, 6:53 AMDec 16, 7:59 AM

81081

OptionProbability

Dyson swarm

Other

Dyson sphere

Hawking radiation from microsingularities

80

16

3

1

Was the Wagner Group’s rebellion in June 2023 a strategic ruse staged by Russian leadership?

Jun 26, 4:36 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

7.38%chance

201067

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1625

894

Hassabis's Isomorphic Labs will get a drug to FDA stage 3 or better by mid 2031

Jan 23, 6:16 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

44%chance

9898

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1128

886

Will a 9 Raptor Starship second stage fly before 2028?

Aug 26, 1:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.14%chance

4383

OptionVotes

YES

NO

361

28

When will JS Extractors reach Stage 3?

May 8, 7:36 PMJan 1, 8:34 PM

2258

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

Will not reach Stage 3 by the start of 2029

2025

25

25

25

25

1

Will Stoke Space propulsively land and refly a second stage?

Apr 17, 7:49 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

71.48%chance

9192

OptionVotes

NO

YES

205

81

Lycantheory Will Get Caught Staging His Court Case

Jan 28, 8:08 PMDec 31, 8:05 PM

65%chance

2123

OptionVotes

NO

YES

136

73

Will Arthur Jiuliani reach at least Stage 7 jhana by EOY2029?

Jul 22, 10:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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