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Prediction markets for Stage

Will New Glenn 3 fly on a reused first stage?

Nov 15, 4:06 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

97.34%chance

1620386

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6057

166

Will China successfully launch an orbital rocket with reused first stage by the end of 2030?

Aug 6, 10:52 PMDec 31, 4:01 PM

92.98%chance

193158

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3227

615

By when will the Exploration Upper Stage launch?

Aug 10, 10:32 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

32600

OptionProbability

2028-12-31

2030-12-31

2028-09-30

8

8

6

Will an astronaut's life be lost during any stage of spaceflight before 2030?

Jan 31, 4:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38.23%chance

281788

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

980

Was the Wagner Group’s rebellion in June 2023 a strategic ruse staged by Russian leadership?

Jun 26, 4:36 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

7.9%chance

19967

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1525

902

Will Starship’s upper stage be caught successfully on SpaceX’s first attempt?

Feb 11, 3:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53%chance

11602

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1062

942

Will at least 2 of the 2026 FIFA World Cup host nations win their opening group stage match?

Oct 30, 3:45 PMJun 14, 10:59 PM

49.59%chance

8550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1008

992

Geoff Keighley exposes himself to Miss Piggy on stage at the Game Awards.

Dec 12, 1:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15%chance

7349

OptionVotes

YES

NO

238

42

Will a 9 Raptor Starship second stage fly before 2028?

Aug 26, 1:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.39%chance

4333

OptionVotes

YES

NO

311

32

Will Stoke Space propulsively land and refly a second stage?

Apr 17, 7:49 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

71.48%chance

9192

OptionVotes

NO

YES

205

81

Hassabis's Isomorphic Labs will get a drug to FDA stage 3 or better by mid 2031

Jan 23, 6:16 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

54%chance

3180

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1083

923

Will a stage at the 2026 Vuelta a Espana be cut short due to pro-Palestine protests?

Sep 15, 3:21 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

58.35%chance

352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

118

84

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