Stage News

When will SpaceX first reuse Starship 2nd stage?

Jun 6, 4:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3017350

OptionProbability

Before 2027-01-01

Before 2026-10-01

Before 2026-07-01

Before 2024-10-01

Before 2025-01-01

Before 2025-04-01

Before 2025-07-01

Before 2025-10-01

Before 2026-01-01

Before 2026-04-01

Before 2025-08-01

Before 2025-09-01

What course will be used for the final stage of the 2026 Tour de France?

Jul 28, 7:17 AMJul 31, 10:59 PM

85977

OptionProbability

Circuits including the Champs-Elysses and the Butte Montmartre, with GC times taken on the finish line or after the riders have crossed Montmartre at least once

Circuits including the Champs-Elysses and the Butte Montmartre, with GC times taken before the riders cross Montmartre (2025 option)

Circuits of the Champs-Elysses only (traditional/2023 option)

Other course (alternate Paris circuits, time trial)

Will China successfully launch an orbital rocket with reused first stage by the end of 2030?

Aug 6, 10:52 PMDec 31, 4:01 PM

95.07%chance

194158

OptionVotes

YES

4227

553

Will at least 2 of the 2026 FIFA World Cup host nations win their opening group stage match?

Oct 30, 3:45 PMJun 14, 10:59 PM

61.82%chance

132027

OptionVotes

YES

1273

786

Will an astronaut's life be lost during any stage of spaceflight before 2030?

Jan 31, 4:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38.23%chance

281788

OptionVotes

YES

1000

980

Will Starship’s upper stage be caught successfully on SpaceX’s first attempt?

Feb 11, 3:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.65%chance

191696

OptionVotes

YES

1136

880

How many African teams (CAF) will qualify for the knockout stage at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Dec 6, 3:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61565

OptionProbability

Above 0

Above 1

Above 2

Above 3

Above 4

Above 5

Above 6

Above 7

Was the Wagner Group’s rebellion in June 2023 a strategic ruse staged by Russian leadership?

Jun 26, 4:36 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

7.9%chance

19967

OptionVotes

YES

1525

902

Will a 9 Raptor Starship second stage fly before 2028?

Aug 26, 1:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.39%chance

4333

OptionVotes

YES

311

Hassabis's Isomorphic Labs will get a drug to FDA stage 3 or better by mid 2031

Jan 23, 6:16 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

55%chance

4230

OptionVotes

YES

1106

905

Will Stoke Space propulsively land and refly a second stage?

Apr 17, 7:49 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

71.48%chance

9192

OptionVotes

YES

205

Will a stage at the 2026 Vuelta a Espana be cut short due to pro-Palestine protests?

Sep 15, 3:21 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

58.35%chance

352

OptionVotes

YES

118

Stage News

Prediction markets for Stage

Prediction markets for Stage

Prediction markets for Stage

When will SpaceX first reuse Starship 2nd stage?

What course will be used for the final stage of the 2026 Tour de France?

Will China successfully launch an orbital rocket with reused first stage by the end of 2030?

Will at least 2 of the 2026 FIFA World Cup host nations win their opening group stage match?

Will an astronaut's life be lost during any stage of spaceflight before 2030?

Will Starship’s upper stage be caught successfully on SpaceX’s first attempt?

How many African teams (CAF) will qualify for the knockout stage at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Was the Wagner Group’s rebellion in June 2023 a strategic ruse staged by Russian leadership?

Will a 9 Raptor Starship second stage fly before 2028?

Hassabis's Isomorphic Labs will get a drug to FDA stage 3 or better by mid 2031

Will Stoke Space propulsively land and refly a second stage?

Will a stage at the 2026 Vuelta a Espana be cut short due to pro-Palestine protests?

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