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Prediction markets for Stage

Will New Glenn 3 fly on a reused first stage?

Nov 15, 4:06 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

95.77%chance

1617794

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4763

210

When will SpaceX first reuse Starship 2nd stage?

Jun 6, 4:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2916303

OptionProbability

Before 2027-01-01

Before 2026-10-01

Before 2026-07-01

Before 2026-04-01

Before 2024-10-01

Before 2025-01-01

Before 2025-04-01

Before 2025-07-01

Before 2025-10-01

Before 2026-01-01

Before 2025-08-01

Before 2025-09-01

72

39

10

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will China successfully launch an orbital rocket with reused first stage by the end of 2030?

Aug 6, 10:52 PMDec 31, 4:01 PM

92.98%chance

193158

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3227

615

Will an astronaut's life be lost during any stage of spaceflight before 2030?

Jan 31, 4:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38.23%chance

281788

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

980

Was the Wagner Group’s rebellion in June 2023 a strategic ruse staged by Russian leadership?

Jun 26, 4:36 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

7.9%chance

19967

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1525

902

Will at least 2 of the 2026 FIFA World Cup host nations win their opening group stage match?

Oct 30, 3:45 PMJun 14, 10:59 PM

44.3%chance

7450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1121

892

Geoff Keighley exposes himself to Miss Piggy on stage at the Game Awards.

Dec 12, 1:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15%chance

7349

OptionVotes

YES

NO

238

42

Hassabis's Isomorphic Labs will get a drug to FDA stage 3 or better by mid 2031

Jan 23, 6:16 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

54%chance

3180

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1083

923

Will Bad Bunny have Enrique Iglesias on stage for the Super Bowl 2026 half time performance?

Dec 28, 6:21 PMFeb 8, 9:00 PM

25.97%chance

6162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

169

59

Lycantheory Will Get Caught Staging His Court Case

Jan 28, 8:08 PMDec 31, 8:05 PM

65%chance

2123

OptionVotes

NO

YES

136

73

Will a stage at the 2026 Tour de France be cut short due to pro-Palestine protests?

Sep 15, 3:20 AMJul 31, 11:59 PM

43.05%chance

555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

Will a stage at the 2026 Vuelta a Espana be cut short due to pro-Palestine protests?

Sep 15, 3:21 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

58.35%chance

352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

118

84

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