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Prediction markets for Staking

Will Bitcoin switch to Proof of Stake before 2030?

Nov 30, 8:58 PMDec 15, 3:00 PM

5.91%chance

223116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

959

Will Bitcoin switch to Proof of Stake before 2030?

Nov 30, 8:57 PMDec 15, 3:00 PM

8.4%chance

122428

OptionVotes

YES

NO

468

104

Which companies will the Trump administration take a stake in?

Oct 13, 12:01 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

112134

OptionProbability

USA Rare Earth

ExxonMobile

Chevron

Sunoco

GlobalFoundries

Boeing

Ford

Palantir

Tesla

AMD

United Health

Moderna

55

50

50

50

35

29

17

17

15

15

12

8

Will Droopy Hit Platinum 1 On Stake us before June 30th 2026

Jan 11, 12:26 AMJul 1, 11:59 PM

52.92%chance

51952

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1061

943

Will Ethereum switch fully to proof-of-stake before June 2026?

Dec 4, 4:19 AMMay 31, 11:59 PM

99%chance

4895

OptionVotes

NO

YES

995

10

Will the Trump family acquire a stake in Binance by the end of 2026?

Mar 13, 5:45 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.21%chance

5721

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1678

627

What will be the first published counterexample to Collatz conjecture?

Apr 14, 3:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10472

OptionProbability

Collatz conjecture is true

Other

42

I predict Yev will sell his stake in #1.

63728127

No loans :-(

85

12

1

1

1

1

Will the Brazilian Federal Government have a majority stake in Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais (CEMIG) before 2027?

Feb 6, 2:17 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

40.8%chance

6450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

830

What fraction of ETH will be staked on 2028-01-01 in the following scenarios?

Apr 3, 11:21 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

3132

OptionProbability

No staking ratio target is live on mainnet before 2026-01-01

Any scenario

A staking ratio target is live on mainnet before 2026-01-01

63

46

29

What fraction of ETH will be staked on 2028-01-01?

Apr 4, 12:53 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

112

OptionProbability

20-30

30-40

40-50

50-60

60-70

0-10

10-20

70-80

80-90

90-100

100-110

14

14

14

14

8

7

7

5

5

5

5

Will "Quality Matters Most When Stakes are Highest" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 20, 9:49 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.43%chance

15

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

970

Will New Jersey Residents be able to stake any crypto on Coinbase at the end of 2026?

Oct 18, 10:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.44%chance

15

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

95

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