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Prediction markets for Standard Index

Before 2027, will there be an AI-written competitor to Wikipedia which I prefer over 2024 Wikipedia?

Dec 18, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21%chance

263463

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1956

520

Will air quality in Los Angeles improve by 2037?

Jun 18, 12:35 AMJun 17, 7:00 PM

86.79%chance

191099

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1180

935

In what year will Remote Labor Index automation rate reaches 80%?

Dec 12, 11:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11475

OptionProbability

2027

2026

2028

2025

2029

Other

2030 or later

71

13

10

2

2

2

1

Will Lil Nas X (Montero Lamar Hill) be convicted on any of his August 2025 charges?

Aug 26, 12:50 PMApr 13, 10:59 PM

46.35%chance

7356

OptionVotes

NO

YES

425

151

Will the Shiller P/E Ratio exceed 50 by Jan 1, 2030?

May 14, 5:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.3%chance

3154

OptionVotes

NO

YES

166

60

Will the S&P 500 close above 7000 on December 31, 2026?

Jun 18, 7:10 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

87.29%chance

7142

OptionVotes

NO

YES

223

13

Inflation: What is the ratio of a 2033 US dollar to a 2023 US dollar? (10x)

Aug 4, 4:35 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

55.93%chance

6102

OptionProbability

YES

NO

369

270

Will the DJIA close up OR down by 1,000 points in a single session by November 12, 2026 (11/12/26)?

Aug 18, 6:23 PMNov 11, 11:59 PM

71.37%chance

391

OptionVotes

NO

YES

158

63

(AGI before 2050) x (FTSE Global All Cap Index Real Return)

Feb 7, 10:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

120

OptionProbability

(NO) x (-10% to <20%)

(YES) x (-10% to <20%)

(YES) x (<-10%)

(YES) x (>=20%)

(NO) x (<-10%)

(NO) x (>=20%)

29

25

12

12

12

12

Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31?

Jul 16, 1:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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