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Prediction markets for Standard Index

Before 2027, will there be an AI-written competitor to Wikipedia which I prefer over 2024 Wikipedia?

Dec 18, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

17.29%chance

263713

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2206

461

Will air quality in Los Angeles improve by 2037?

Jun 18, 12:35 AMJun 17, 7:00 PM

87.35%chance

201149

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1230

928

In what year will Remote Labor Index automation rate reaches 80%?

Dec 12, 11:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12484

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2026

2025

2029

2030 or later

Other

66

17

11

2

1

1

1

Will Lil Nas X (Montero Lamar Hill) be convicted on any of his August 2025 charges?

Aug 26, 12:50 PMApr 13, 10:59 PM

46.35%chance

7356

OptionVotes

NO

YES

425

151

Will United States become a Nazi-scale like totalitarian dictatorship before 2050?

Nov 5, 3:34 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

10%chance

5285

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

49

Will the S&P 500 close above 7000 on December 31, 2026?

Jun 18, 7:10 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

85.58%chance

9239

OptionVotes

NO

YES

214

14

Will democracy survive in second Trump administration?

Oct 9, 1:34 AMJan 20, 12:00 PM

80.29%chance

10198

OptionVotes

NO

YES

182

67

Will the Shiller P/E Ratio exceed 50 by Jan 1, 2030?

May 14, 5:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.3%chance

3154

OptionVotes

NO

YES

166

60

Inflation: What is the ratio of a 2033 US dollar to a 2023 US dollar? (10x)

Aug 4, 4:35 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

55.93%chance

6102

OptionProbability

YES

NO

369

270

Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31?

Jul 16, 1:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

124

OptionVotes

NO

YES

124

67

(AGI before 2050) x (FTSE Global All Cap Index Real Return)

Feb 7, 10:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

120

OptionProbability

(NO) x (-10% to <20%)

(YES) x (-10% to <20%)

(YES) x (<-10%)

(YES) x (>=20%)

(NO) x (<-10%)

(NO) x (>=20%)

29

25

12

12

12

12

What will qwen 4 27b score on artificial analysis intelligence index v5.0

Nov 3, 2:20 AMDec 2, 11:59 PM

14

OptionProbability

21~23

24~26

27~29

30+

31

23

23

23

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