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Prediction markets for Standard Index

Before 2027, will there be an AI-written competitor to Wikipedia which I prefer over 2024 Wikipedia?

Dec 18, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21%chance

263463

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1956

520

Will air quality in Los Angeles improve by 2037?

Jun 18, 12:35 AMJun 17, 7:00 PM

86.79%chance

191099

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1180

935

Will the APT tungsten price exceed $500/mtu on April 1, 2026?

Mar 2, 9:07 PMApr 1, 9:06 PM

96.3%chance

4430

OptionVotes

NO

YES

510

20

In what year will Remote Labor Index automation rate reaches 80%?

Dec 12, 11:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7290

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2026

2025

2029

Other

2030 or later

65

19

9

2

2

2

1

Will Lil Nas X (Montero Lamar Hill) be convicted on any of his August 2025 charges?

Aug 26, 12:50 PMApr 13, 10:59 PM

59.33%chance

5287

OptionVotes

NO

YES

481

101

Will stainless steel prices exceed 4500 yuan per tonne on May 1, 2026?

Mar 2, 9:07 PMMay 1, 9:05 PM

86.21%chance

1150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

250

40

Will stainless steel prices exceed 4500 yuan per tonne on April 1, 2026?

Mar 2, 9:06 PMApr 1, 9:05 PM

82.88%chance

2120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

220

45

Inflation: What is the ratio of a 2033 US dollar to a 2023 US dollar? (10x)

Aug 4, 4:35 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

55.93%chance

6102

OptionProbability

YES

NO

369

270

Will stainless steel prices exceed 4000 yuan per tonne on April 1, 2026?

Mar 2, 9:06 PMApr 1, 9:05 PM

80%chance

1100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

200

50

(AGI before 2050) x (FTSE Global All Cap Index Real Return)

Feb 7, 10:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

120

OptionProbability

(NO) x (-10% to <20%)

(YES) x (-10% to <20%)

(YES) x (<-10%)

(YES) x (>=20%)

(NO) x (<-10%)

(NO) x (>=20%)

29

25

12

12

12

12

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