OptionProbability
US/Israeli announce Iran navy annihilated. All surface ships bigger than 10 tons. Small subs also not counted
Regular opposition broadcasts hacking Iran TV 3 more times. Like the State TV/IRIB satellite hack.
A brigade or base commander in any city switches sides
Interim council fractures, or all current dead or one member defects publicly
One or more Town(s), city(s), declare as free of iran regime control for over 2 days
High Profile flips - 2+ named officers go on video via Starlink calling on units to stand down or defect.
100
66
31
27
24
17
OptionVotes
YES
NO
228
44
151
72
