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Prediction markets for Starship launch

Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?

Apr 25, 3:04 AMDec 31, 2:00 PM

15%chance

114226036

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1847

1122

By when will a second Starship / Super Heavy launch tower be operational?

Jun 10, 1:50 PMJul 2, 5:59 AM

37136981

OptionProbability

Flight 15

Flight 12

2026-01-01

Flight 11

Flight 10

2024-09-01

2025-01-01

2025-07-01

Flight 7

2025-03-01

93

79

62

13

3

0

0

0

0

0

How many Starship launches will occur in 2025?

Mar 6, 11:24 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

79116285

OptionProbability

1 or more

3 or more

5 or more

6 or more

7 or more

8 or more

10 or more

24 or more

15 or more

20 or more

100

100

93

60

24

14

5

4

2

2

Will the first uncrewed Starship to Mars launch within 2 years as Elon Musk says?

Sep 8, 6:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.23%chance

9821603

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4277

1477

Will Starship launch one hundred times by 2030?

Apr 22, 2:12 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

71.58%chance

5018953

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1742

902

Will New Glenn launch a commercial payload before Starship?

Jan 4, 1:22 AMJan 9, 4:59 PM

88.73%chance

5512123

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2385

130

Will Starship launch to orbit at least 7 times before the end of 2025?

Feb 8, 5:09 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

2.48%chance

379053

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3417

31

Will Starship launch to orbit at least 6 times before the end of 2025?

Feb 2, 1:53 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

3.01%chance

427523

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2654

22

How many Starship launches will occur in 2026?

Aug 2, 1:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27000

OptionProbability

5 or more

7 or more

10 or more

15 or more

20 or more

82

69

52

26

17

Will at least one Starship leave Earth heading for Mars in the 2026 launch window?

Sep 8, 12:28 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

13.49%chance

566667

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2532

395

Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?

Sep 8, 6:55 PMMar 1, 4:59 AM

7%chance

314343

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3127

650

Will at least one crewed Starship leave Earth heading for Mars in the 2028/2029 launch window?

Sep 8, 12:29 AMMar 31, 3:59 PM

12%chance

61935

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2708

369

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