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Starship rocket News

Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2028?

Feb 7, 6:16 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

3%chance

175158298

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6908

285

When will Starship complete an orbit?

Feb 4, 11:06 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

180155907

OptionProbability

Before 2027-05-01

Before 2027-04-01

Before 2027-03-01

Before 2027-02-01

Before 2027-01-01

Before 2026-12-01

Before 2026-11-01

Before 2026-10-01

Before 2026-09-16

Before 2026-09-01

February 2024

March 2024 or earlier

April 2024 or earlier

May 2024 or earlier

June 2024 or earlier

July 2024 or earlier

August 2024 or earlier

September 2024 or earlier

October 2024 or earlier

November 2024 or earlier

December 2024 or earlier

January 2025 or earlier

Before 2025-03-01

Before 2025-04-01

Before 2025-05-01

Before 2025-06-01

Before 2025-07-01

Before 2025-08-01

Before 2025-09-01

Before 2025-10-01

Before 2025-11-01

Before 2025-12-01

Before 2026-01-01

Before 2026-02-01

Before 2026-03-01

Before 2026-04-01

Before 2026-05-01

Before 2026-06-01

Before 2026-07-01

Before 2026-08-01

84

81

79

74

63

56

40

27

11

5

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

When will SpaceX successfully land Starship for the first time?

Jun 6, 5:44 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7947309

OptionProbability

Before 2028-01-01

Before 2027-10-01

Before 2027-07-01

Before 2027-04-01

Before 2027-01-01

Before 2026-10-01

Before 2026-09-01

Before 2026-07-01

Before 2026-08-01

Before 2024-08-01

Before 2024-09-01

Before 2024-10-01

Before 2024-11-01

Before 2024-12-01

Before 2025-01-01

Before 2025-02-01

Before 2025-03-01

Before 2025-04-01

Before 2025-05-01

Before 2025-06-01

Before 2025-07-01

Before 2025-08-01

Before 2025-09-01

Before 2025-10-01

Before 2025-11-01

Before 2025-12-01

Before 2026-01-01

Before 2026-04-01

Before 2026-05-01

Before 2026-06-01

90

88

83

69

49

22

2

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Blue Origin land an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship?

Feb 12, 11:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.85%chance

3610771

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1301

769

When will Starship deploy satellites for the 2nd time?

Mar 19, 10:06 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1810208

OptionProbability

2027

2026 Jul-Dec

2028

2029 or later or never

2025 May-Aug

2025 Sep-Dec

2026 Jan-Jun

46

32

11

7

1

1

1

Will SpaceX successfully land Starship on Mars before January 1st 2030?

Oct 16, 11:29 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

11.7%chance

526741

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2591

496

Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2030?

Nov 3, 6:02 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

23.8%chance

325440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1789

559

Will SpaceX launch a non-SpaceX payload on Starship before 2030?

Jun 10, 11:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.8%chance

132088

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1124

890

Will the first Starship to land on Mars carry useful payload?

Sep 8, 2:40 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

78.3%chance

152046

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1899

526

When will a suborbital rocket, excluding Starship, first fly paying passengers point to point?

Dec 10, 8:43 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

8561

OptionProbability

After 2040 or Never

2036-40

2033-35

2030-32

2024-26

2027-29

72

13

6

5

2

2

When will the last SpaceX Falcon 9 / Falcon Heavy launch be?

Jul 18, 4:15 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

36%chance

15536

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1095

941

Will SpaceX conduct at least half of all successful orbital launches in 2027?

Jun 21, 2:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.39%chance

7427

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1212

902

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