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Prediction markets for Starship rocket

Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2028?

Feb 7, 6:16 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

3.45%chance

175159550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6356

304

When will SpaceX successfully land Starship for the first time?

Jun 6, 5:44 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8555159

OptionProbability

Before 2028-01-01

Before 2027-10-01

Before 2027-07-01

Before 2027-04-01

Before 2027-01-01

Before 2026-12-01

Before 2024-08-01

Before 2024-09-01

Before 2024-10-01

Before 2024-11-01

Before 2024-12-01

Before 2025-01-01

Before 2025-02-01

Before 2025-03-01

Before 2025-04-01

Before 2025-05-01

Before 2025-06-01

Before 2025-07-01

Before 2025-08-01

Before 2025-09-01

Before 2025-10-01

Before 2025-11-01

Before 2025-12-01

Before 2026-01-01

Before 2026-04-01

Before 2026-07-01

Before 2026-10-01

Before 2026-05-01

Before 2026-06-01

Before 2026-08-01

Before 2026-09-01

Before 2026-11-01

95

92

89

86

57

45

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

When will Starship deploy satellites for the 2nd time?

Mar 19, 10:06 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2214475

OptionProbability

2026 Jul-Dec

2027

2025 May-Aug

2025 Sep-Dec

2026 Jan-Jun

2028

2029 or later or never

93

4

1

1

1

1

1

Will Blue Origin land an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship?

Feb 12, 11:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.94%chance

3611687

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1685

594

Will SpaceX successfully land Starship on Mars before January 1st 2030?

Oct 16, 11:29 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12.32%chance

536929

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2503

508

Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2030?

Nov 3, 6:02 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

17.31%chance

335646

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2186

458

In what year will the number of Starship launches exceed the number of Falcon launches?

Jan 15, 1:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

253664

OptionProbability

2027-2028

2029-2030

After 2030 / never

2024-2026

48

35

17

1

Will SpaceX launch a non-SpaceX payload on Starship before 2030?

Jun 10, 11:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

78.11%chance

173378

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1889

529

Will the first Starship to land on Mars carry useful payload?

Sep 8, 2:40 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

78.3%chance

152046

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1899

526

When will the last SpaceX Falcon 9 / Falcon Heavy launch be?

Jul 18, 4:15 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27.17%chance

171274

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1403

800

Will SpaceX conduct at least half of all successful orbital launches in 2027?

Jun 21, 2:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75.02%chance

9582

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1367

845

When will a suborbital rocket, excluding Starship, first fly paying passengers point to point?

Dec 10, 8:43 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

8561

OptionProbability

After 2040 or Never

2036-40

2033-35

2030-32

2024-26

2027-29

72

13

6

5

2

2

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