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Prediction markets for Starship rocket

When will Starship complete an orbit?

Feb 4, 11:06 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

171147638

OptionProbability

Before 2026-11-01

Before 2026-10-01

Before 2026-09-01

Before 2026-08-01

Before 2026-07-01

Before 2026-06-01

Before 2026-05-01

Before 2026-02-01

Before 2026-03-01

Before 2026-04-01

February 2024

March 2024 or earlier

April 2024 or earlier

May 2024 or earlier

June 2024 or earlier

July 2024 or earlier

August 2024 or earlier

September 2024 or earlier

October 2024 or earlier

November 2024 or earlier

December 2024 or earlier

January 2025 or earlier

Before 2025-03-01

Before 2025-04-01

Before 2025-05-01

Before 2025-06-01

Before 2025-07-01

Before 2025-08-01

Before 2025-09-01

Before 2025-10-01

Before 2025-11-01

Before 2025-12-01

Before 2026-01-01

86

76

73

64

31

22

15

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2028?

Feb 7, 6:16 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

8.28%chance

170147567

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3743

452

Will SpaceX successfully land Starship on Mars before January 1st 2030?

Oct 16, 11:29 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.63%chance

485495

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1473

733

Will SpaceX' Falcon launch at least 700 times?

May 22, 5:47 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

96.31%chance

204815

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5289

495

Will Blue Origin land an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship?

Feb 12, 11:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

89.36%chance

194783

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2901

345

When will there be x simultaneously operational Starships?

Jun 19, 3:06 PMAug 31, 2:30 PM

134663

OptionProbability

05 by end of 2027/06

10 by end of 2027/09

10 by end of 2027/06

20 by end of 2027/12

10 by end of 2027/03

30 by end of 2027/12

05 by end of 2026/12

05 by end of 2027/03

05 by end of 2026/10

10 by end of 2026/12

05 by end of 2026/08 i.e. Aug 2026

20 by end of 2026/12

17

13

10

10

8

7

6

6

5

3

2

2

Will the first Starship to land on Mars carry useful payload?

Sep 8, 2:40 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

78.3%chance

152046

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1899

526

Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2030?

Nov 3, 6:02 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

29.39%chance

211728

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1550

645

When will a suborbital rocket, excluding Starship, first fly paying passengers point to point?

Dec 10, 8:43 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

8561

OptionProbability

After 2040 or Never

2036-40

2033-35

2030-32

2024-26

2027-29

72

13

6

5

2

2

When will the last SpaceX Falcon 9 / Falcon Heavy launch be?

Jul 18, 4:15 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38.75%chance

13423

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1020

986

Will New Glenn launch more than Falcon 9 in 2030?

Dec 21, 12:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.53%chance

484

OptionVotes

YES

NO

132

76

Will Falcon 9/FH Launch More Mass to Orbit than Starship in 2027?

Feb 3, 5:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33%chance

242

OptionVotes

YES

NO

142

70

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