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Prediction markets for Starship rocket

Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2028?

Feb 7, 6:16 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

2.07%chance

175157619

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8588

242

When will Starship complete an orbit?

Feb 4, 11:06 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

176151220

OptionProbability

Before 2027-01-01

Before 2026-12-01

Before 2026-11-01

Before 2026-10-01

Before 2026-09-01

Before 2026-08-01

Before 2026-07-01

Before 2026-06-01

February 2024

March 2024 or earlier

April 2024 or earlier

May 2024 or earlier

June 2024 or earlier

July 2024 or earlier

August 2024 or earlier

September 2024 or earlier

October 2024 or earlier

November 2024 or earlier

December 2024 or earlier

January 2025 or earlier

Before 2025-03-01

Before 2025-04-01

Before 2025-05-01

Before 2025-06-01

Before 2025-07-01

Before 2025-08-01

Before 2025-09-01

Before 2025-10-01

Before 2025-11-01

Before 2025-12-01

Before 2026-01-01

Before 2026-02-01

Before 2026-03-01

Before 2026-04-01

Before 2026-05-01

83

76

68

64

53

28

8

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

When will Starship deploy satellites for the 2nd time?

Mar 19, 10:06 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1810108

OptionProbability

2027

2026 Jul-Dec

2028

2029 or later or never

2025 May-Aug

2025 Sep-Dec

2026 Jan-Jun

46

32

11

7

1

1

1

Will SpaceX' Falcon launch at least 700 times?

May 22, 5:47 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

98.39%chance

209255

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9649

387

Will Blue Origin land an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship?

Feb 12, 11:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

92.45%chance

288754

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3502

286

Will SpaceX successfully land Starship on Mars before January 1st 2030?

Oct 16, 11:29 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.77%chance

515945

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1795

639

Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2030?

Nov 3, 6:02 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

20.38%chance

315387

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1977

506

In what year will the number of Starship launches exceed the number of Falcon launches?

Jan 15, 1:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

202359

OptionProbability

After 2030 / never

2029-2030

2027-2028

2024-2026

38

31

30

1

Will the first Starship to land on Mars carry useful payload?

Sep 8, 2:40 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

78.3%chance

152046

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1899

526

When will a suborbital rocket, excluding Starship, first fly paying passengers point to point?

Dec 10, 8:43 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

8561

OptionProbability

After 2040 or Never

2036-40

2033-35

2030-32

2024-26

2027-29

72

13

6

5

2

2

When will the last SpaceX Falcon 9 / Falcon Heavy launch be?

Jul 18, 4:15 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

36%chance

15536

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1095

941

Will CALT's Long March 9 rocket launch before 2035?

Sep 16, 7:47 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

64.23%chance

582

OptionVotes

NO

YES

119

101

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