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Prediction markets for Starship rocket

When will Starship flight 10 happen?

Mar 31, 9:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74189084

OptionProbability

Before 2025-10-01

Before 2025-09-01

Before 2025-08-24

Before 2025-08-16

Before 2025-06-01

Before 2025-07-01

Before 2025-08-01

Before 2025-07-16

Before 2025-07-08

98

86

42

1

0

0

0

0

0

Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2028?

Feb 7, 6:16 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

15%chance

165141563

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2527

596

When will Starship complete an orbit?

Feb 4, 11:06 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

168131389

OptionProbability

Before 2026-08-01

Before 2026-07-01

Before 2026-06-01

Before 2026-05-01

Before 2026-04-01

Before 2026-03-01

Before 2026-01-01

Before 2025-12-01

Before 2026-02-01

Before 2025-11-01

Before 2025-10-01

Before 2025-09-01

February 2024

March 2024 or earlier

April 2024 or earlier

May 2024 or earlier

June 2024 or earlier

July 2024 or earlier

August 2024 or earlier

September 2024 or earlier

October 2024 or earlier

November 2024 or earlier

December 2024 or earlier

January 2025 or earlier

Before 2025-03-01

Before 2025-04-01

Before 2025-05-01

Before 2025-06-01

Before 2025-07-01

Before 2025-08-01

84

83

72

70

62

55

46

29

28

20

10

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will ULA's Vulcan rocket launch more often than SpaceX's Starship in 2025?

Oct 22, 7:43 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

10.9%chance

166405

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2859

350

Will SpaceX successfully land Starship on Mars before January 1st 2030?

Oct 16, 11:29 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.25%chance

475345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1323

790

Starship Flight 10 will launch before New Glenn Flight 2

Jul 3, 6:40 AMDec 31, 6:32 AM

92.14%chance

135006

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3423

292

Will SpaceX' Falcon launch at least 600 times?

May 22, 5:47 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

96.68%chance

134341

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5203

594

Will the first Starship to land on Mars carry useful payload?

Sep 8, 2:40 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

81.5%chance

151996

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2099

476

Will SpaceX' Falcon launch at least 700 times?

May 22, 5:47 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

88.29%chance

201715

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2189

710

Will Blue Origin land an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship?

Feb 12, 11:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

78.42%chance

141349

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1906

525

When will a suborbital rocket, excluding Starship, first fly paying passengers point to point?

Dec 10, 8:43 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

8561

OptionProbability

After 2040 or Never

2036-40

2033-35

2030-32

2024-26

2027-29

72

13

6

5

2

2

When will the last SpaceX Falcon 9 / Falcon Heavy launch be?

Jul 18, 4:15 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

35.95%chance

13366

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1096

941

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