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Starship rocket News

Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2028?

Feb 7, 6:16 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

2%chance

174157604

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8762

239

When will Starship complete an orbit?

Feb 4, 11:06 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

174148423

OptionProbability

Before 2026-11-01

Before 2026-10-01

Before 2026-09-01

Before 2026-08-01

Before 2026-07-01

Before 2026-06-01

Before 2026-05-01

Before 2026-04-01

February 2024

March 2024 or earlier

April 2024 or earlier

May 2024 or earlier

June 2024 or earlier

July 2024 or earlier

August 2024 or earlier

September 2024 or earlier

October 2024 or earlier

November 2024 or earlier

December 2024 or earlier

January 2025 or earlier

Before 2025-03-01

Before 2025-04-01

Before 2025-05-01

Before 2025-06-01

Before 2025-07-01

Before 2025-08-01

Before 2025-09-01

Before 2025-10-01

Before 2025-11-01

Before 2025-12-01

Before 2026-01-01

Before 2026-02-01

Before 2026-03-01

67

57

47

37

27

17

7

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

When will Starship flight 12 happen?

Jun 9, 11:35 PMJan 2, 12:08 AM

3829033

OptionProbability

Before December 2026

Before October 2026

Before August 2026

Before June 2026

Before August 2025

Before October 2025

Before December 2025

Before February 2026

Before April 2026

98

97

95

94

0

0

0

0

0

When will SpaceX first reuse Starship 2nd stage?

Jun 6, 4:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3017147

OptionProbability

Before 2027-01-01

Before 2026-10-01

Before 2026-04-01

Before 2026-07-01

Before 2024-10-01

Before 2025-01-01

Before 2025-04-01

Before 2025-07-01

Before 2025-10-01

Before 2026-01-01

Before 2025-08-01

Before 2025-09-01

60

40

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

When will Starship deploy satellites for the 2nd time?

Mar 19, 10:06 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

189457

OptionProbability

2027

2026 Jul-Dec

2028

2029 or later or never

2026 Jan-Jun

2025 May-Aug

2025 Sep-Dec

45

31

11

7

4

1

1

Will SpaceX' Falcon launch at least 700 times?

May 22, 5:47 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

98.12%chance

208255

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8649

405

Will Blue Origin land an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship?

Feb 12, 11:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

87.75%chance

256463

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2678

374

Will SpaceX successfully land Starship on Mars before January 1st 2030?

Oct 16, 11:29 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

22%chance

485680

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1658

676

Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2030?

Nov 3, 6:02 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

20.38%chance

315387

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1977

506

Will the first Starship to land on Mars carry useful payload?

Sep 8, 2:40 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

78.3%chance

152046

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1899

526

When will a suborbital rocket, excluding Starship, first fly paying passengers point to point?

Dec 10, 8:43 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

8561

OptionProbability

After 2040 or Never

2036-40

2033-35

2030-32

2024-26

2027-29

72

13

6

5

2

2

When will the last SpaceX Falcon 9 / Falcon Heavy launch be?

Jul 18, 4:15 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

36%chance

15536

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1095

941

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