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Prediction markets for Starship test

Will two Starships dock together in orbit before 2026?

Apr 16, 11:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

1.17%chance

13261939

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5055

27

Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?

Apr 10, 8:39 PMNov 2, 1:59 AM

87.23%chance

8117120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1580

624

Will two Starships dock together in orbit before 2027?

Apr 16, 11:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

58.81%chance

296581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1214

374

Will Starship land on legs on Earth after returning from orbit?

Mar 19, 8:59 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

1%chance

144918

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3085

79

When will Starship deploy satellites for the 2nd time?

Mar 19, 10:06 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

133605

Will Starship have a 99% success rate as of its 500th payload-carrying launch?

Jan 4, 2:01 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

74.6%chance

272368

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1580

651

Will the first Starship to land on Mars carry useful payload?

Sep 8, 2:40 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

81.5%chance

151996

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2099

476

In what year will the number of Starship launches exceed the number of Falcon launches?

Jan 15, 1:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

171623

OptionProbability

2027-2028

2029-2030

After 2030 / never

2024-2026

50

34

12

3

Will there be crewed Starship flights to Mars in 4 years if there are successful launches 2 years from now?

Sep 7, 11:19 PMJul 15, 6:59 AM

19.75%chance

131499

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2016

496

Will anyone propulsively land an orbital-class rocket booster within a decade of SpaceX?

Feb 10, 3:28 AMDec 23, 4:59 AM

35%chance

20541

OptionVotes

YES

NO

136

73

Which crewed vehicle will be next to land humans on the Moon?

Jun 20, 2:51 AMDec 31, 2:47 AM

5373

OptionProbability

Lanyue

Starship HLS

Blue Moon HLS

Other

43

42

11

3

By when will Stoke Nova first launch?

Dec 31, 11:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4165

OptionProbability

December 31 2027

June 30 2027

December 31 2026

June 30 2026

December 31 2025

June 30 2025

95

78

57

53

35

0

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