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Top stories

SpaceX Opens ‘Starfactory’ and Targets Aug. 24 Return to Flight

SpaceX Opens ‘Starfactory’ and Targets Aug. 24 Return to Flight

Authors

7

10 hours ago

Prediction markets for Starships

When will Starship flight 10 happen?

Mar 31, 9:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

81210224

OptionProbability

Before 2025-10-01

Before 2025-09-01

Before 2025-08-28

Before 2025-08-27

Before 2025-08-26

Before 2025-08-25

Before 2025-08-24

Before 2025-06-01

Before 2025-07-01

Before 2025-08-01

Before 2025-07-16

Before 2025-07-08

Before 2025-08-16

98

89

81

73

62

42

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

By which flight will SpaceX successfully recover both Starship and its Booster?

Jun 8, 1:42 PMJul 2, 5:59 AM

84170386

OptionProbability

20

15

12

10

6

8

7

9

89

52

21

1

0

0

0

0

Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2028?

Feb 7, 6:16 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

12.33%chance

165141913

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2877

541

When will Starship complete an orbit?

Feb 4, 11:06 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

168132493

OptionProbability

Before 2026-08-01

Before 2026-07-01

Before 2026-06-01

Before 2026-05-01

Before 2026-04-01

Before 2026-03-01

Before 2026-02-01

Before 2026-01-01

Before 2025-12-01

Before 2025-11-01

Before 2025-10-01

Before 2025-09-01

February 2024

March 2024 or earlier

April 2024 or earlier

May 2024 or earlier

June 2024 or earlier

July 2024 or earlier

August 2024 or earlier

September 2024 or earlier

October 2024 or earlier

November 2024 or earlier

December 2024 or earlier

January 2025 or earlier

Before 2025-03-01

Before 2025-04-01

Before 2025-05-01

Before 2025-06-01

Before 2025-07-01

Before 2025-08-01

87

83

77

70

58

55

33

17

16

13

6

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Starship reach Mars by 2030?

Apr 22, 2:09 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

50%chance

23282639

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2226

1961

Will two Starships dock together in orbit before 2026?

Apr 16, 11:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

1.17%chance

13261939

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5055

27

Will SpaceX successfully catch the Starship upper stage in 2025? (Everyday Astronaut 2025 Predictions)

Jan 1, 6:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9%chance

2531352

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3180

314

Will the first uncrewed Starship to Mars launch within 2 years as Elon Musk says?

Sep 8, 6:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.84%chance

9922653

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5327

1374

How many Starship launches will occur in 2026?

Aug 2, 1:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68442

OptionProbability

5 or more

7 or more

10 or more

15 or more

20 or more

87

69

51

24

17

Will SpaceX successfully land Starship on Mars before January 1st 2030?

Oct 16, 11:29 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.25%chance

475345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1323

790

Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?

Sep 8, 6:55 PMMar 1, 4:59 AM

5.79%chance

314843

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3627

616

How Many Engine Burns will FAIL on Starship Flight 10?

Aug 9, 4:17 AMAug 31, 11:28 PM

121821

OptionProbability

34+ FAIL

1-3 FAIL

4-9 FAIL

0 FAIL

10-19 FAIL

20-33 FAIL

24

17

17

14

14

14

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 21, 2025
Aug 21, 2025
Space
Texas
Tech
SpaceX Opens ‘Starfactory’ and Targets Aug. 24 Return to Flight
Authors
7
10 hours ago

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