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Prediction markets for Startup

Manifest 2025 Startup Pitch Competition - Will at least 3 companies get funding?

May 9, 3:23 PMAug 31, 10:59 PM

14.94%chance

79197324

OptionVotes

YES

NO

145460

20045

Will my startup Retis Labs become a unicorn, over 1 billion USD market cap, before the the end of 2026?

Jul 5, 6:19 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.41%chance

4350042

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20781

8355

Will The Startup Party get more seats in Parliament after the next general election than Reform UK will?

Jul 21, 1:09 PMAug 16, 10:59 PM

3.37%chance

2112985

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5357

187

Will there be a Jesus AI startup worth $20+ million by 2026

Jun 28, 11:56 PMJan 1, 7:01 AM

22.7%chance

412819

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1680

676

Will micro-nations become the new startups by 2030?

Jan 27, 12:06 PMFeb 4, 4:59 AM

13.22%chance

231895

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1108

951

Will a major tech company (Apple, Google, Microsoft, or Meta) acquire a neurotech startup in 2025?

Mar 8, 11:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.99%chance

15845

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1105

905

Will I launch a startup by the end of 2026?

Jun 18, 3:45 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

24.93%chance

18659

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1294

869

Will Elon Musk's next startup involve any technology mentioned in Eliezer Yudkowsky's major "dath ilan" posts that is more completely deployed on dath ilan than on Earth?

May 17, 1:00 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

22.51%chance

17593

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1187

857

A startup in a programming language derived from homotopy type theory raises $10M by 2030

May 16, 6:57 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

24.58%chance

17528

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1282

880

Will a Generative AI (LLM) startup IPO before EOY 2025?

Apr 2, 5:48 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

36.99%chance

20510

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

930

Will 2022 Atlas Fellows launch startups worth >$300 million by the end of 2025?

May 18, 6:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.56%chance

250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

952

Will Imbue (AI startup) be acquired or cease operating before the end of 2025?

Aug 8, 9:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

49.76%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

995

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