State Capture News

Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days

Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit

Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days (September 22, 2025) or peace deal is signed)

≥ 25 fatalities in Cambodia-Thailand border clashes

DRC & Rwanda sign USA-brokered peace agreement

≥ 1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire in 2025

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025

Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party

Russia remains a permanent member of UN Security Council

Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)

Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia

Donald Trump remains President of USA

A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel

A new non-majority Muslim (according to CIA Factbook) state becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Russia sells or scraps it's only aircraft carrier; the Admiral Kuznetsov

Algeria becomes a member of BRICS

China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace

A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ceasefire is broken

Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns

A drone attacks a head of state (hits or lands within 30 meters)

North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash reignites (fighting resumes)

A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country

Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces

A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)

A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran

A nation officially announces AGI has been achieved

World leader of 20m+ population country is assassinated

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe

Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine

Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Azerbaijan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Any signatory of the CTBT tests a nuclear weapon

Bashar Al-Assad is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Trump, Putin, & Zelensky meet together in the same room

Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours

Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test

At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti

Uniformed armed forces in any G20 member state attempt to seize executive power from the constitutional head of government

Indonesia becomes a member of BRICS

Nigeria becomes a member of BRICS

Argentina becomes a member of BRICS

Venezuela becomes a member of BRICS

Kazakhstan becomes a member of BRICS

Bangladesh becomes a member of BRICS

Vladimir Putin is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Russian armed forces intentionally attack uniformed personnel or sovereign assets of any NATO member state, or vice-versa

Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed

Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United Kingdom

A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days

Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel

Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations

Azerbaijani troops enter Iran

An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period

At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series

Benjamin Netanyahu is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

United States government arrests president Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela

Sudanese Civil War ends

A head of state from a G20 country is assassinated

Iraq becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

The Government of Denmark publicly acknowledges receipt of a formal written offer from Donald J. Trump or his officially empowered representatives to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States

A country announces magnetic-fusion net-positive energy

China becomes militarily involved in Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash

Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty

Mexico becomes a member of BRICS

The U.S. suffers ≥50 combat fatalities in a single new overseas operation—defined as a country where no U.S. combat deaths occurred in 2024

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United States

Any EU member invokes Article 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union in response to an armed attack

Libya becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Palestine is granted full United Nations Membership

The IAEA publicly reports that Iran possesses uranium enriched to ≥90 % U-235

A vessel larger than 50,000 deadweight tons is damaged or sunk by a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz

Kim Jong Un is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI

World Health Organization (WHO) declares a Chikungunya virus pandemic

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Canada

The Arctic Council is formally suspended or dissolved by unanimous vote

Any country leaves NATO

Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup

United Nations Security Council adopts (i.e., passes without veto) a formal resolution that explicitly condemns Israel’s use of lethal force against civilians seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza or demands Israel cease such force

Iran becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

China invades Taiwan

At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population

Israel annexes 100% of Gaza

Saudi Arabia signs a written, mutual-defence pact with China or Russia

Extraterrestrials making contact with earth is widely acknowledged

160 UN Nations simultaneously officially regonize Palestine's statehood.

Donald Trump is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Any current G-20 member state ceases to be listed as a United Nations Member State

Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Major News sources consistently identify a conflict as WWIII

Lebanon becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Israel conducts military operation in Cyprus

Ukraine becomes a formal NATO member

Any United States of America state formally states intent to begin process to secede

United Kingdom formally states intention to begin process to reverse "Brexit"

USA leaves NATO

Two states engage in a nuclear exchange (both attempt to deliver a nuclear device within the borders of the other)

Any Canadian territory becomes part of US territory

Yahya Sinwar is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Alberta begins process of becoming a USA state

YES

NO

Market chaos

Vacant House seats at start of term

Bonus underlying chaos

Bonus market chaos

Vacant Senate seats at start of term

Any member seated who was not the winner

Any state misses filing deadlines for certified results

Congress refuses to accept any certified result

Majority control discrepancy in the Senate

Majority control discrepancy in the House

Failure to establish a quorum in first roll-call vote (either chamber)

New election ordered for any seat

Any major news organization retracts a call

Any member-elect changes parties

Senator not up for re-election changes party

Multiple Speaker ballots, or failure to elect a Speaker on the first day

Any member-elect denied the oath of office

Any election delayed

YES

YES

YES

YES

YES

YES

NO

NO