OptionVotes
NO
YES
2022
240
OptionProbability
Vacant House seats at start of term
Market chaos
Bonus market chaos
Bonus underlying chaos
Any state misses filing deadlines for certified results
Multiple Speaker ballots, or failure to elect a Speaker on the first day
Vacant Senate seats at start of term
Congress refuses to accept any certified result
New election ordered for any seat
Any member seated who was not the winner
Majority control discrepancy in the Senate
Majority control discrepancy in the House
Any major news organization retracts a call
Failure to establish a quorum in first roll-call vote (either chamber)
Any member-elect changes parties
Senator not up for re-election changes party
Any election delayed
Any member-elect denied the oath of office
VP party change or otherwise announced change in Senate tie break
54
52
48
46
39
37
33
31
29
28
22
18
16
11
3
1497
789
148
68
171
58