OptionVotes
NO
YES
1772
308
OptionProbability
Market chaos
Vacant House seats at start of term
Bonus underlying chaos
Bonus market chaos
Vacant Senate seats at start of term
Any member seated who was not the winner
Any state misses filing deadlines for certified results
Congress refuses to accept any certified result
Majority control discrepancy in the Senate
Majority control discrepancy in the House
Failure to establish a quorum in first roll-call vote (either chamber)
New election ordered for any seat
Any major news organization retracts a call
Any member-elect changes parties
Senator not up for re-election changes party
Multiple Speaker ballots, or failure to elect a Speaker on the first day
Any member-elect denied the oath of office
Any election delayed
VP party change or otherwise announced change in Senate tie break
63
60
45
40
37
35
34
31
28
27
23
22
20
14
10
3
Geopolitics
Technology
Medical/Healthcare
Economy
Fundamental research
Space Exploration
Environment and sustainability
Art and culture
Human Rights
Society
Disaster Relief / Humanitarian Aid
69
68
62
56
48
41
1177
900