OptionVotes
NO
YES
2022
240
OptionProbability
Vacant House seats at start of term
Market chaos
Bonus market chaos
Bonus underlying chaos
Any state misses filing deadlines for certified results
Vacant Senate seats at start of term
New election ordered for any seat
Majority control discrepancy in the Senate
Majority control discrepancy in the House
Any member seated who was not the winner
Any major news organization retracts a call
Failure to establish a quorum in first roll-call vote (either chamber)
Congress refuses to accept any certified result
Any member-elect changes parties
Multiple Speaker ballots, or failure to elect a Speaker on the first day
Senator not up for re-election changes party
Any election delayed
Any member-elect denied the oath of office
VP party change or otherwise announced change in Senate tie break
54
52
48
46
37
33
31
29
25
24
23
22
19
18
16
12
2
127
79
1497
789
198
51
168
59