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Prediction markets for State of AI

State of AI gets ≥4 of 10 predictions right?

Oct 10, 9:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57%chance

2542840

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1151

869

Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?

Jun 26, 8:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

47.84%chance

125581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10661

9352

Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037?

Nov 10, 4:57 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

23.5%chance

1023802

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1828

1592

Is the nature of AI risk completely misunderstood today with respect to the state of the art in 2030?

Sep 4, 2:13 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

29.88%chance

251969

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1667

397

Will the President of the United States of America admit to using AI to help make an important decision before 2028 ends

Aug 12, 9:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.86%chance

251214

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1024

807

Will an AI become president of the United States before 2040?

Aug 27, 4:29 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

6.27%chance

20860

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1473

931

Is the US government currently (2023) hiding AI capabilities beyond the current state of the art? (Resolves 2040)

Nov 29, 11:59 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.03%chance

8293

OptionVotes

YES

NO

477

139

By what date will at least one state-of-the-art general-purpose AI system not be a reasoning model?

Oct 10, 10:54 AMJan 1, 11:23 AM

3249

OptionProbability

01.01.2030

01.07.2029

01.01.2029

01.07.2028

01.01.2028

01.07.2027

01.01.2027

01.07.2026

01.01.2026

72

69

66

59

55

51

44

38

0

Will there be evidence of war crimes by NATO member states counterfactually due to AI by 2030?

Jan 17, 2:18 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

23.41%chance

9195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

271

121

In 2040, will any state of the art AIs do something analogous to sleeping?

Jan 26, 8:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.81%chance

9163

OptionVotes

NO

YES

210

209

Will "The Sorry State of AI X-Risk Advocacy, and Th..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Feb 23, 3:42 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.29%chance

253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

124

97

Will "The state of AI safety in four fake graphs" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jul 13, 7:47 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.88%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

941

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