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Prediction markets for State of AI

State of AI gets ≥4 of 10 predictions right?

Oct 10, 9:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.62%chance

2442812

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1166

858

Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?

Jun 26, 8:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

47.84%chance

125581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10661

9352

Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037?

Nov 10, 4:57 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

24.24%chance

1013752

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1843

1542

Is the nature of AI risk completely misunderstood today with respect to the state of the art in 2030?

Sep 4, 2:13 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

29.88%chance

251969

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1667

397

Will the President of the United States of America admit to using AI to help make an important decision before 2028 ends

Aug 12, 9:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.86%chance

251214

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1024

807

Will an AI become president of the United States before 2040?

Aug 27, 4:29 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

6.13%chance

19858

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1503

929

State of AI-rendered games [Read Description]

Sep 24, 4:43 PMDec 31, 4:38 PM

5550

OptionProbability

2029

2030

2028

2027

2026

2025

63

63

50

37

31

0

Is the US government currently (2023) hiding AI capabilities beyond the current state of the art? (Resolves 2040)

Nov 29, 11:59 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.03%chance

8293

OptionVotes

YES

NO

477

139

By what date will all state-of-the-art general-purpose AI systems not be reasoning models?

Oct 10, 10:56 AMJan 1, 11:23 AM

2265

OptionProbability

01.01.2030

01.01.2029

01.07.2029

01.07.2028

01.01.2028

01.07.2027

01.01.2027

01.07.2026

01.01.2026

59

54

52

41

34

25

17

15

5

By what date will at least one state-of-the-art general-purpose AI system not be a reasoning model?

Oct 10, 10:54 AMJan 1, 11:23 AM

2229

OptionProbability

01.01.2030

01.07.2029

01.01.2029

01.07.2028

01.01.2028

01.07.2027

01.01.2027

01.07.2026

01.01.2026

72

69

66

59

52

48

41

34

5

In 2040, will any state of the art AIs do something analogous to sleeping?

Jan 26, 8:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.81%chance

9163

OptionVotes

NO

YES

210

209

Will "The Sorry State of AI X-Risk Advocacy, and Th..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Feb 23, 3:42 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.29%chance

253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

124

97

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