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Prediction markets for State of AI Report

Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?

Jun 8, 6:16 PMNov 4, 11:59 PM

17.6%chance

412383162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1658

803

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Feb 3, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.05%chance

25072880

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7852

5623

Will >97% of all jobs be fully automated before the year 2075?

Aug 29, 10:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

55.81%chance

10816424

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1322

855

Will all 500 billion dollars from Project Stargate actually get invested within four years?

Jan 22, 3:37 AMJan 29, 4:59 AM

29.42%chance

6010049

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5703

4805

[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?

Jan 6, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.84%chance

408599

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5103

5087

Will there be a terrorist attack against OpenAI before 2027?

Jun 1, 2:14 PMDec 31, 4:59 PM

26.5%chance

617440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3369

1782

SOAI#5: A real-time generative video game becomes the year’s most-watched title on Twitch.

Oct 9, 11:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.81%chance

335935

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4447

225

SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).

Oct 9, 11:04 PMOct 10, 11:04 PM

59.93%chance

395035

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1223

818

SOAI#7: A movie or short film produced with significant use of AI wins major audience praise and sparks backlash

Oct 9, 11:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.83%chance

292683

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1328

753

Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?

Aug 8, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.42%chance

565

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4007

3989

Will BMW Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:18 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 0.6

0.6 - 0.7

0.7 - 0.8

0.80 - 0.9

0.90 - 1.0

Above 1.0

17

17

17

17

17

17

Will Tesla Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:19 PMDec 31, 9:18 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 1.1

1.1 - 1.2

1.2 - 1.3

1.3 - 1.4

1.4 - 1.5

Above 1.5

17

17

17

17

17

17

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