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Prediction markets for State of Play

Which of these Language Models will beat me at chess?

Jan 1, 11:47 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

68142589

OptionProbability

Any model announced before 2030

Any model announced before 2029

Any model announced before 2028

Any open-weights model announced before 2030

Any model announced before 2027

Grok 5

Any Claude 5 model

Gemini 3

OpenAI o4

Any model announced before 2026

GPT-5

DeepSeek-V4

Claude 3.5 Opus

Grok 3

OpenAI o3

Llama 4

GPT-4.5

Gemini 2.5

Any Claude 4 model

grok-4

85

82

80

77

62

41

36

35

29

25

23

17

13

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

If Republicans lose the 2028 presidential election, will they attempt a coup? [Broad definition]

Dec 31, 1:07 PMJan 21, 10:59 PM

40.49%chance

397876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1212

825

Will the first First Gentleman of the USA be known to be a gamer?

May 6, 3:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.97%chance

836118

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2062

1853

In 2025, will I be able to play Civ against an LLM?

Aug 25, 11:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.15%chance

515962

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2367

423

Will GTA 6 Online allow players to travel between the states of Leonida and San Andreas?

Aug 4, 10:26 PMMay 27, 6:59 AM

62.71%chance

61780

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1297

771

In what state will the Kansas City Chiefs play a majority of their home games in the 2031 NFL season?

Jul 24, 2:54 AMJan 26, 5:59 AM

31771

OptionProbability

Missouri

Kansas

Other

70

28

2

Will a Premier League regular season match be played in the United States before 2028?

May 2, 2:24 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.93%chance

4328

OptionVotes

YES

NO

301

33

Will a La Liga regular season match be played in the United States before the end of the 2025/26 season?

Aug 23, 8:26 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

49.35%chance

4250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1013

987

Will a La Liga regular season match be played in the United States before 2028?

May 2, 2:25 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

87.79%chance

3220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

268

37

Will the United States of America play an official Test cricket match against a country with test status before 2030?

Jan 5, 4:20 PMJan 3, 1:29 PM

60.35%chance

386

OptionVotes

NO

YES

123

81

Will the Golden State Valkyries make it to the WNBA playoffs in their first season?

May 15, 2:07 AMNov 1, 3:59 AM

43.26%chance

215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PutnamBench leaderboard?

Jul 13, 5:43 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

00

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