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Prediction markets for State of Startups

Will Elon Musk's AI Company (xAI) exceed OpenAI in valuation anytime before 2035?

Mar 2, 8:16 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

29.8%chance

7115986

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1099

416

AI bubble pops in 2026?

Nov 10, 12:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.3%chance

587229

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3171

2564

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.58%chance

233790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1073

935

Will the solid-state (Donut) Verge motorcycle be delivered under a non-disclosure agreement?

Mar 21, 12:20 AMAug 1, 12:10 AM

47.39%chance

43782

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1054

949

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.58%chance

193559

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2640

380

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

Will I get into Stanford as a Transfer Undergraduate

Feb 2, 2:08 AMMay 15, 11:59 PM

121095

OptionProbability

Rejection

Acceptance

Waitlist

47

41

12

🎗️ Will CharityVest experience significant financial trouble that puts donors' accounts at risk?

Mar 4, 5:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.13%chance

10454

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1096

933

Chance an NLP nerd with shit grades and ouchie-demograaphics for top unis

Jan 24, 6:24 AM

60

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